New polling shows the U.S. Senate race as a dead heat between Republican U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody and Democratic challenger Angie Nixon.

The St. Pete Polls survey, conducted for Florida Politics, shows both candidates with about 45%, specifically with Moody at 45.2% and Nixon at 44.8%. That bucks conventional wisdom that Nixon, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, starts the General Election season at a severe disadvantage after her upset victory in the Democratic Primary against a better-funded opponent.

The 0.4-percentage point difference between the candidates falls well within the poll’s 3.2% margin of error. Pollsters surveyed 913 likely voters from Sept. 15 through 17. The survey sample leaned heavily toward the GOP, with about 45% of those surveyed being registered Republicans, under 33% registered Democrats, and 22% without party affiliation or members of minor parties.

Taking the poll at face value, about 3% of voters plan to support another candidate on the ballot rather than the Republican or Democratic nominee, while another 7% remain up for grabs.

Nixon, who would be Florida’s first Black Senator, wins about 74% of Black voters’ support, as well as 51% of Hispanic voters’ support and 59% of Asian voters’ support. White voters break for Moody, 53%, over Nixon, 37%.

But the big boost for Nixon comes from winning support from nearly half of independent voters, moving Moody from 50% to 37% among the key demographic. Meanwhile, Nixon retains 85% of Democrats’ support, while Moody holds on to only 77% of Republicans.

The Primary results already guarantee Florida will elect a woman to the Senate for the first time since Republican Paula Hawkins’ 1980 victory. The poll shows women breaking nearly evenly, with just under 45% backing Nixon and almost as many backing Moody, who does win men 46% to 44%.

Moody holds the seat now, but was appointed to it by Gov. Ron DeSantis last year. Unlike Nixon, Moody has won two statewide elections as Florida Attorney General, in 2018 and 2022.

Ultimately, the results suggest Florida could once again be a purple state in the presidential election.