Patriots at Buccaneers odds, picks and predictions

The New England Patriots (7-2) visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) Sunday. Kickoff from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, is set for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Patriots vs. Buccaneers odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.

New England escaped with a 24-23 win over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 9, failing to cover as a 5.5-point favorite as the Over (45.5) hit. The Patriots gained 331 total yards and picked up 23 first downs while going 8-of-12 on third down. The Pats have won 6 straight and have only let up 20 or more points twice during that span.

Tampa Bay, coming off a bye week, dominated the New Orleans Saints 23-3 in Week 8 while covering as a 4-point favorite as the Under (46) cashed. The Bucs forced 4 turnovers and outscored the Saints 16-0 in the second half. Tampa went just 4-of-14 on third and fourth downs.

Tampa won the last meeting 19-17 in 2021, but the Patriots lead the all-time series 7-3.

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Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:39 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Patriots +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Buccaneers -145 (bet $145 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Patriots +2.5 (-110) | Buccaneers -2.5 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 48 (O: -110 | U: -110)Patriots at Buccaneers key injuries

Patriots

WR Kayshon Boutte (hamstring) outLB Christian Elliss (hip) outRB Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) out

Buccaneers

WR Chris Godwin Jr. (leg) outOT Luke Goedeke (foot) questionableOT Luke Haggard (shoulder) questionableRB Bucky Irving (foot/shoulder) outLB Haason Reddick (ankle/knee) outPatriots at Buccaneers picks and predictionsPrediction

Buccaneers 22, Patriots 21

LEAN BUCCANEERS (-145).

The only edge that the Buccaneers have in this contest is in the turnover battle where the Bucs have a turnover differential of +7 and have forced 12 turnovers while the Patriots sit at a 0 differential and have given up 11 turnovers. This Tampa defense has proven it can force turnovers and the only way the Buccaneers win this game is if they can make this young QB uncomfortable enough to give the ball away.

This is a very slight lean as the Patriots are better in every single other statistical category.

BET PATRIOTS +2.5 (-110).

The Patriots have the best run defense in the league, allowing a league low 75.4 rushing yards per game, meaning that finding any consistent offense will be a tough task for the Bucs. On the other side, the Patriots average more rushing yards and passing yards per game than Tampa while also putting up 26.3 points per game.

New England is the better team and will likely lead for the majority of this game, but look for a poorly-timed turnover to show the youth of this offense and make a way for Tampa to come away with the win here.

BET UNDER 48 (-110).

The Under has hit in back-to-back games for Tampa Bay and is 2-1 in New England’s last 3 road games. The Under is also 4-0 in the last 4 matchups between these teams since 2009.

Tampa’s only road to success lies on the defensive end and the Patriots have proven they have one of the best defenses in the NFL under coach Mike Vrabel, so look for these defenses to shine in this matchup.

There is some risk with this bet as this Buccaneers offense has shown that it can be among the most explosive in the league.

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Patriots at Buccaneers odds, picks and predictions

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