Advantage Buccaneers: Early-Down Run Defense
Unless there is a drastic change in the game plan due to the return of quarterback Kyler Murray (or Aaron Jones’ knee is an issue), the Vikings are going to run the ball quite a bit on first and second downs on Sunday. They lead the NFL in percentage of plays that are runs (55.4%) and that rises to 69.0% on first down, also highest in the league. They have executed the second-most handoffs on second down, as well. While the Vikings have gotten reasonably good results with this strategy, ranking 14th in the league with a neat 100.0 rushing yards per game and averaging 4.17 yards per first-down rush, the Buccaneers’ defense arguably has the advantage here. Overall, Tampa Bay’s defense is fourth in both rushing yards allowed per game (75.0) and yards allowed per carry (3.00), and on first down it ranks 13th in yards allowed per carry at 4.09. Where it could get especially tricky for a Vikings defense as it tries to create short third-down situations is on second-down handoffs. Through two games, the Bucs are allowing only 1.29 yards per carry on 14 second-down runs. That’s the stingiest figure in the league.
Advantage Vikings: Pass Protection
Just because it’s obvious doesn’t make it the wrong answer. The Vikings’ blitz-heavy (to put it mildly) defensive scheme under Brian Flores has produced very good pass-rush results through the first two weeks. The Vikings are tied for first in the NFL with 4.0 sacks per game and are fifth in sacks-per-pass-play percentage at 10.39%. Individually Dallas Turner has 3.0 sacks and leads the league by a comfortable margin with 20 quarterback pressures. Baker Mayfield’s percentage of dropbacks on which he has been pressured (40.8%) is relatively middle of the pack in the NFL but too many of those plays have resulted in sacks, as his 9.2% sack rate is third-highest among all quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts.
X-Factor: Red Zone Efficiency
One area in which Tampa Bay’s defense has seen marked improvement in 2026 over its 2025 results is in red zone touchdown percentage allowed. The Buccaneers were dead last in the NFL in this category last season, allowing a touchdown on 69.77% of their opponents’ drives inside the 20. While it is obviously a small sample size at this point, the Buccaneers’ mark in 2026 is 37.50%, which is seventh best in the NFL. Both of the Bucs first two games have gone down to the wire, so every scoring opportunity – or opportunity to limit scoring – is likely to be important on Sunday against the Vikings. Minnesota has been very good in the red zone in its first two games, scoring touchdowns on 80% of such possessions.