FOXBORO — It took the Patriots less than an hour after last weekend’s disasterclass at Jacksonville to start spinning their 1-2 start as something other than their season spinning out of control.
Sure, they got their butts kicked. And yes, it’s early. But right there, in the visitor’s locker room and in those same breaths, players noted how they had the same record through Week 3 last year, a Super Bowl campaign.
OK, true.
Respected veterans, like Milton Williams, mentioned how they went to Buffalo as underdogs last October and won. And look, there the Bills are again on the schedule this Sunday.
Fair.
But the comparison stops there for two reasons, not the least of which is they visit Buffalo in Week 4 this season, not Week 5 as they did last year.
No. 1: Expectations are wildly different for these Patriots, who were just drop-kicked by 29 points, almost double their largest losing margin from all of last season. Bad losses are considered bad news now, not growing pains.
No. 2: Drake Maye, once the face of everything glowing about this franchise, is now the driver and engine of their failures. Maye needs to, in Mike Vrabel’s words, loosen his grip. And as far as Sunday’s game in Buffalo is concerned, it’s time to steer into the skid.
Before Maye can put his team back on the road to contention, he needs to regain control and align himself with the direction of the season, which is trending toward the Patriots, for now, becoming a defensive team. A team that plays a more conservative style to minimize mistakes and prioritize. Until Maye proves he can do that, there’s no use in hoping he can put on his Superman cape and do more.
Because as the old Bobby Knight axiom goes, before you can win, you must first eliminate the things that drive losing. And Maye’s turnovers are at the top of the Patriots’ list with a bullet.
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye scrambles during the second quarter of a Sept. 20 game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Gillette Stadium. Nancy Lane/Boston Herald
Get this: through three games, Maye is the only starting quarterback in the NFL with more interceptions (six) than throwaways (five). Of the three backups keeping him company in that camp, two are the lowest-graded passers in the game at Pro Football Focus (Cooper Rush and Andy Dalton). Gross.
Yet during the Pats’ one win, their 20-3 pinning of Pittsburgh in Week 2, Maye risked a turnover just once. His turnover-worthy play percentage that day was half of what he produced in the opener and almost 80% lower than last Sunday’s at Jacksonville. After the game, Vrabel was asked about the team’s defensive performance and referenced a “formula.”
That was no accident.
“You have to affect the (opposing) quarterback each and every week, and we have to do a better job and continue to do a good job of helping our quarterback be efficient,” Vrabel said. “And (Maye) has a large part in that. But we know that that’s the formula.”
Vrabel repeated that same idea Wednesday when I asked him how the Patriots need to win moving forward.
For Maye to begin holding up his part of the formula, the simplest solution is to embrace the throwaway when he’s under pressure. Flinging the ball through the end zone instead of into the hands of Jaguars cornerback Travis Hunter before halftime would have given the Patriots a manageable 14-6 deficit at half. He can no longer force plays in high-leverage moments, no matter how badly he wants to rescue the offense or how quickly his support is falling apart or how well the play may have worked in practice.
If it’s covered, just chuck it, because this subset of Maye’s turnovers, giveaways made inside the red zone and the fourth quarter, is killing the Patriots’ chances more than anything else.
Now, fumbling may be a permanent feature of Maye’s game because of his small hands. Measured at the NFL combine in 2024, Maye’s hands registered in the 16th percentile of quarterback prospects, according to Mockdraftable.com. He fumbled eight times last year, tied for sixth-most in the league. Nothing he can do about that.
But as a passer?
It’s time to apply a timeless, boring lesson even Tom Brady embraced in his final Patriots season to help keep a defensive 2019 team afloat. Over the second half of that season, Brady ranked among the least efficient quarterbacks in the league. But by avoiding picks and fumbles, he let the NFL’s stingiest defense carry the Patriots, and it did, right up until Brady only scored 13 points in a Wild Card playoff loss.
As it stands now, this Patriots defense is armed and ready to do the same, ranked eighth by the opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric DVOA and fourth in yards allowed per play.
Back in 2019, Brady posted several career lows, but finished with the fifth-lowest turnover-worthy play percentage in the NFL and set a career high in throwaways. He knew it was better for the offense to stall out rather than go backwards because of a turnover. In fact, Brady posted the six highest throwaway totals of his career over his final six New England seasons, when he won three Super Bowls, enjoyed two of his best seasons by QBR and won an MVP.
For a coaching staff that spent the offseason helping Maye take the keys to an offense like once did, this is the greatest example Maye can now take from the greatest of all-time.
Live to see another down, so you can fight to win another day.