It’s hard being so popular.
Florida’s population boomed during the pandemic, and today the state has nearly 2 million more residents than in 2020. Everyone from young families putting down roots to retirees enjoying their golden years has flocked to the Sunshine State. The state’s beaches, historically affordable housing, low taxes, and pro-growth policies have made it a national magnet, particularly for residents leaving higher-cost states.
Now Florida is navigating the pressures that have accompanied its popularity. The influx has strained the housing market and raised the stakes for maintaining strong schools. To sustain its success, Florida needs more starter homes and more consistent educational outcomes.
All eyes are on the Sunshine State to see whether it continues its willingness to take big swings, solve problems, and course-correct to meet these challenges.
Florida’s appeal has intensified its housing challenge. During and after the COVID-19 pandemic, remote work allowed hundreds of thousands of Americans to trade high-cost urban areas in the North for Florida’s sunny beaches and low tax burdens. The influx of out-of-state buyers drove demand that overwhelmed the housing market in a geographically constrained state.
As a result, home prices skyrocketed, benefiting some current owners but putting ownership further out of reach for others. Today, the median sales price for an existing single-family home sits at roughly $415,000. With prices like these, many renters can’t buy, families can’t upsize, and empty nesters can’t downsize.
As many Floridians can attest, a home’s sticker price is only part of the affordability issue. In a September poll of more than 500 Florida voters, commissioned by Pioneer Institute, 80 percent of homeowners said they felt burdened by soaring insurance premiums, while 71 percent said the same about high property taxes. It’s no wonder that three-fourths of respondents were in support of Amendment 3 – a proposal that could reduce residents’ property tax liability.
Florida’s residents are eager for practical solutions. In the same Pioneer poll, three options earned the most support: reforming property insurance to increase competition, reforming building codes to reduce construction costs, and legalizing accessory dwelling units – like backyard cottages and garage apartments – statewide. Those findings point to where further research can be most useful: understanding what changes can make housing more attainable while preserving the qualities that make Florida so attractive in the first place.
Housing affordability is only part of what will determine whether Florida can build on its success. Its schools present a different test.
For years, Florida has been bold in its approach to education choice, providing families with a range of options for where and how their children are taught. But more choice has yet to generate sustained improvements in student achievement.
While Florida students perform well nationally in earlier grades, that momentum fades as students transition into middle school. Florida’s 2024 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) results place the state among the top 10 nationally in both fourth grade reading and math, but among the bottom 10 in both subjects in eighth grade.
Florida lawmakers have shown a willingness to course-correct. After years of debate over Common Core, the state adopted its Benchmarks for Excellent Student Thinking (B.E.S.T.) standards and built new assessments around them. That willingness to innovate, measure results, and keep improving is what makes Florida important nationally.
Encouraging signs suggest the course correction is beginning to pay off. Early data shows English language arts performance, for example, has improved since Florida fully implemented its B.E.S.T. standards and aligned assessments. The question now is whether those gains will translate into stronger performance in the later grades, where Florida still has more ground to make up.
For Florida families, affordable housing and strong schools are both essential to building a future in the state. The benefits of Florida’s success are felt most when families can afford a home and feel confident their children are receiving a high-quality education.
Florida has shown that it is willing to innovate, measure results, and keep its focus on constant improvement. Get housing and education right in Florida, and the Sunshine State can light the way for the nation.
Doug Tuthill of St. Petersburg is past president of Step Up For Students and a Distinguished Senior Fellow on Education at Pioneer Institute. Andrew Mikula is Chief Housing Economist at Pioneer Institute, a Boston-based think tank.