Inside Elections moved Florida’s 13th Congressional District from Likely Republican to Lean Republican this week. It was the only Florida House seat the nonpartisan rater touched in its Oct. 1 update, and the fourth outlet in nine days to move the race toward Democrat Leela Gray.

On Friday, Gray’s campaign said it raised more than $1.4 million in the third quarter, $900,000 of it in September.

U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna won her two races for the seat by about 9 points each. Late polls had both close.

In 2022, St. Pete Polls had Luna and Democrat Eric Lynn separated by less than a point in late October. Lynn had more cash on hand than Luna in the last report before the election. Luna won 53% to 45%.

In 2024, the same pollster, surveying for Florida Politics, had Democrat Whitney Fox up by nearly 4 points in August and tied in late October. Fox outraised Luna in every reporting period that year and closed the third quarter within $5,000 of her cash on hand. She was the only Florida Democrat in the DCCC’s Red to Blue program. Luna won 55% to 45%.

The congressional plan Gov. Ron DeSantis signed in May pulled the Democratic core of St. Petersburg out of CD 13 and pushed the lines north into Pasco County. Donald Trump carried the new district 56% to 43% in 2024, about 2 points better than he did on the old lines.

The ratings

Inside Elections followed Cook Political Report, which shifted CD 13 from Likely to Lean Republican on Sept. 25 as part of a 15-race move toward Democrats. Cook House Editor Erin Covey cited Luna’s “polarizing reputation” and noted she ran 4 points behind Trump in the district in 2024.

Fox News Power Rankings made the same Likely-to-Lean move on Sept. 22, one of seven Florida House races it shifted toward Democrats that day. The Tampa Bay Times moved Luna’s seat from “Potentially Vulnerable” to “Vulnerable” on Sept. 23, sixth on its list of Florida seats most likely to flip, and called it “another contest that looks like it will be close until the end.”

None of the four calls the seat a toss-up. Inside Elections, which now projects Democrats to gain seven to 15 House seats, puts two Democratic-held Florida seats in its Toss-up column, Kathy Castor‘s CD 14 and the CD 25 that Jared Moskowitz is seeking, and rates Darren Soto‘s CD 9 Likely Republican.

The polling

The survey behind Gray’s talking points is a House Majority PAC poll from Hart Research Associates that had Gray ahead 51% to 46% head to head. The super PAC is aligned with House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries. The poll of 500 voters was taken Aug. 25-27, and the lead sits inside the 4.4-point margin of error. With no-party candidate Tony D’Arrigo included, as he will be on the November ballot, the same poll had it 44% to 43%, with 7% for D’Arrigo.

That poll had Gray winning unaffiliated voters 56% to 39% and 24% of Republicans. It had 9% of 2024 Trump voters backing her. It put Trump’s job approval in the district at 43% approve, 57% disapprove. Those are the figures in Friday’s release.

Every public poll of the race so far has come from a campaign or an allied group. Luna’s internal from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, released in mid-August, had her up 49% to 41%, with 10% undecided. A GQR poll for Democrats had Luna up 47% to 44%. Gray’s own May survey from Public Policy Polling had her trailing 41% to 39%.

Luna’s response to the House Majority PAC numbers was “Election year, same BS.” She pointed to the August 2024 headlines that had her trailing Fox.

The money

Gray’s campaign said 12,667 individual contributions made up the $1.4 million quarter and nearly 83% of them were $100 or less. She crossed $1 million for the cycle at the end of June and reported about $683,000 on hand as of July 29. If the third-quarter figure holds up in her Oct. 15 FEC report, she will have more than doubled her cycle total in three months.

Luna has not announced a third-quarter number. She raised about $690,000 in the second quarter and reported nearly $1.5 million on hand at the end of July, more than twice Gray’s balance at the time.

Gray’s campaign also says it is outspending Luna 2-to-1 on the air. Her first spot, a 30-second ad accusing Luna of “giving insider information to her donor,” drew a cease and desist letter from Luna’s attorneys on Sept. 18 calling the claim “verifiably false.” Gray hired Elias Law Group, kept the ad on the air, and warned that Luna would owe Gray’s legal fees under Florida’s anti-SLAPP law if she sued.

“These four ratings changes are an undeniable sign that our campaign to unseat extremist Anna Paulina Luna is gaining traction every day,” Gray said in a statement. “On November 3, FL-13 voters will choose between more of the same and a representative who delivers for this community.”

Gray, a third-generation veteran, served more than 30 years in the Army, including two combat deployments, and retired in 2018 as Deputy Commanding General of U.S. Army Central. She won the Aug. 18 Democratic Primary with about 65% of the vote. Luna was unopposed for the Republican nomination and is seeking a third term.

Third-quarter reports are due at the FEC on Oct. 15.

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Ed. note: This story was drafted with assistance from AI. Editorial judgment, sourcing, and final review were performed by Peter Schorsch and the Florida Politics editorial team.