Orange County voters are ready to renew the one-mill school property tax, and 61% say a deal between the district and its teachers would make them more likely to vote “yes.”

A new St. Pete Polls survey conducted for Florida Politics finds 55% of likely voters support renewing the tax in November, 13% oppose it and 32% are undecided.

Asked whether an agreement that raises salaries, keeps health insurance affordable and preserves access to doctors and hospitals would make them more likely to support the referendum, 61% said yes. Another 14% said no, and 25% were unsure.

If the two sides fail to reach a deal and teachers face higher insurance costs and lose access to some doctors and hospitals, 19% said that would make them more likely to support the referendum. Another 44% said no, and 37% were unsure.

The one-mill levy is $1 for every $1,000 of taxable property value. Voters first approved it in 2010, when the District was trying to avoid recession-era layoffs, and renewed it in 2014, 2018 and 2022 with 77%, 84%, and 82% of the vote. The 2018 and 2022 renewals ran on August Primary ballots. This one goes on the Nov. 3 General Election ballot.

The District says the tax raises more than $242 million this school year and has said the money pays for about 1,200 teaching positions along with arts, athletics and student activities. The ballot language directs the revenue to “compensation for teachers and educational support employees, preserving academic programs, arts, athletics, and student activities.” A “yes” vote extends the levy four more years, from July 2027 through June 2031.

In May, the School Board voted 5-3 to keep the 2010 ballot language rather than add a guarantee that the money would fund raises. Superintendent Maria Vazquez warned that earmarking the revenue for raises would force hundreds of layoffs. School Board Chair Teresa Jacobs said the District “really should not be offering raises with a funding source that is not guaranteed or reoccurring.” Board Members Anne Douglas, Angie Gallo and Stephanie Vanos voted “no.”

The District declared impasse with the Orange County Classroom Teachers Association (CTA) on April 22 after the two sides split over pay and health insurance. The District said its healthcare costs rose 23% this year and that its contribution is climbing from $10,555 to $11,611 per employee. “Even with $240 million in district contributions, continuing on this path would require an additional $145 million next school year just to keep up,” Vazquez said in June.

The District proposed moving employees onto plans with higher deductibles. On its hybrid plan, the family deductible would rise from $800 to $6,000 and the individual deductible from $400 to $3,000. On the SureFit plan, the deductible would go from $600 to $4,000 and the family premium from $266 to $588 per paycheck. The union countered with deductibles of $1,600 and $1,200 and a $293 premium.

On salary, the District opened in March at 0.93% for highly effective teachers and 0.70% for effective teachers. By late July it was offering 2.65% and 1.98%. The union wants 4% and 3% and has pushed a 2% cost-of-living adjustment on top. CTA President Clinton McCracken said the District’s pay and insurance proposals together amount to an average pay cut of about 7%.

In August, union members ratified an agreement on the state’s Teacher Salary Increase Allocation with 97.5% voting “yes.” It gives permanent base-salary bumps of $1,925 to $3,000 to teachers with 10 or more years of Florida experience.

The unresolved issues went to a two-day impasse hearing in July before Special Magistrate James Mastriani. The union expects his recommendation in early October. If either side rejects it, the School Board settles the dispute itself at a hearing the union expects near the end of the month. The Board meets Oct. 13.

On Sept. 22, the union presented the District with a memorandum arguing that referendum dollars should add to educator compensation rather than be absorbed into the recurring budget. It also says its members need access to Orlando Health and a network beyond SureFit.

Thirty-six percent of voters approve of the job Orange County Public Schools is doing. Another 27% disapprove, and 37% are unsure.

In the poll’s unweighted crosstabs, Democrats support renewal 64% to 10%, independents 58% to 19%, and Republicans 41% to 14%, with 45% of Republicans undecided.

Among Democrats, 67% said an agreement on pay and coverage would make them more likely to vote “yes.” Among independents, 63% said the same, and among Republicans, 50%.

Nineteen percent said they were familiar with the contract talks, and 68% were not.

The St. Pete Polls survey of 344 Orange County likely voters was conducted Oct. 3-4 through automated phone calls (60%) and text messages (40%), drawn from the state’s voter rolls as of Sept. 14. Results were weighted by party, race, age, and gender to match the county’s active voter population. Respondents who said they did not plan to vote were excluded. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

___

Ed. note: This story was drafted with assistance from AI. Editorial judgment, sourcing, and final review were performed by Peter Schorsch and the Florida Politics editorial team.