U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody has 50% support to Democrat Angie Nixon‘s 40% in a new Mason-Dixon poll, a 10-point lead for the Republican.

Another 2% picked someone else and 8% are undecided four weeks out from Election Day. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Moody holds 91% of Republicans and Nixon holds 87% of Democrats. Nixon gets 3% of Republicans and Moody gets 5% of Democrats. Independents favor Nixon 41% to 35%, with 16% undecided.

Men back Moody 57% to 31% and women back Nixon 48% to 43%. The St. Pete Polls survey had women split at 45% each.

Tampa Bay, which includes Moody’s home of Plant City, is tied at 44%. Nixon leads Southeast Florida 48% to 42%. Moody leads North Florida, home to Nixon’s Jacksonville district, 58% to 35%. She also leads Central Florida 54% to 35% and Southwest Florida 57% to 32%. In the St. Pete Polls survey, Moody led the Tampa media market 49% to 41%.

White voters favor Moody 61% to 29%. Hispanic voters favor her 47% to 40%. Black voters favor Nixon 81% to 10%, with 9% undecided. Nixon, who would be Florida’s first Black U.S. Senator, drew 74% of Black voters in the St. Pete Polls survey.

Nixon leads 51% to 39% among voters 18 to 34. Moody leads 48% to 44% among those 35 to 49, 53% to 35% among those 50 to 64, and 54% to 34% among those 65 and older, the largest age group in the sample at 32%.

Nixon is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. Asked about candidates who call themselves “democratic socialists,” 52% of voters said they would be less likely to vote for one, 8% said more likely, and 35% said it would make no difference. Among independents, 45% said less likely and 42% said no effect. Among Democrats, 18% said less likely, 17% said more likely, and 57% said no effect.

President Donald Trump‘s job approval in the poll is 48% approve, 48% disapprove.

Republicans hold an advantage of more than 1.5 million active registered voters over Democrats, 5.65 million to 4.1 million as of Aug. 31, or 42% of the rolls to 30%. Mason-Dixon’s sample is 44% Republican, 34% Democrat, and 22% independent or other.

Moody, a Plant City Republican, was twice elected Attorney General before Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed her last year to replace Marco Rubio, now Secretary of State. She won the GOP Primary with 80% of the vote.

Nixon is a state Representative from Jacksonville. She won the Democratic nomination with 56% of the vote over Alex Vindman, who outspent her by more than 10-to-1.

A YouGov survey of 3,813 likely voters, fielded Sept. 28 through Oct. 5, had Moody ahead 49% to 44%. Change Research, a Democratic firm polling for Freedom Project USA, had the race at 48% to 47% in a survey fielded Sept. 25-27. InsiderAdvantage, a Republican firm, had Moody up 49% to 42% on Sept. 20-21. A Stetson University poll fielded Sept. 14-21 had her ahead 51% to 40%, and the St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics the same week had it tied at 45%.

Moody has been at 45% or better in every public poll since the Aug. 18 Primary. Nixon has ranged from 40% to 47%.

EMILYs List endorsed Nixon last week, and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders plans to spend from his $23 million war chest on her behalf. Moody declined the first of three debate invitations last month.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy of Jacksonville conducted the poll Sept. 28 through Oct. 1 for NBC 6 and the Telemundo Station Group. Live interviewers reached 625 registered voters statewide by telephone, all of whom said they were likely to vote in the General Election. Respondents were selected at random from a phone-matched voter registration list that included landline and cell numbers, with quotas assigned to reflect turnout by county. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level and higher for subgroups.

— Ed. note: This story was drafted with assistance from AI. Editorial judgment, sourcing, and final review were performed by Peter Schorsch and the Florida Politics editorial team.