With less than a month to go before the 2026 general election, Florida’s Republican candidates for governor and U.S. Senate are leading their Democratic rivals, a new NBC6/Telemundo Station Group poll found.

Florida Governor

The poll, conducted last week by polling and strategy firm Mason-Dixon, found GOP gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds with a 48% to 41% lead over Democrat David Jolly.

Another 1% support an independent candidate while 10% remain undecided.

Donalds and Jolly are both trying to succeed Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is ineligible to seek another term after eight years in office.

The poll found Donalds is more popular among men (55% to 33%, 11% undecided) while women support Jolly (49% to 41%, 9% undecided).

White voters support Donalds (59% to 30%), while Jolly is supported by Black voters (76% to 10%), with Hispanic voters narrowly supporting Donalds (48% to 43%).

Jolly receives support from Democrats (85% to 19%) and Independents (47% to 28%) while Republicans overwhelmingly support Donalds (87% to 4%).

U.S. Senate

Meanwhile, in Florida’s U.S. Senate race, the poll found Republican Ashley Moody leading Democrat Angie Nixon by 50% to 40%, with 2% supporting Independent Neil Gillespie and 8% undecided.

Moody receives support from men (57% to 31%) while Nixon is supported by women (48% to 43%).

White voters support Moody (61% to 29%) while Black voters support Nixon (81% to 10%), with Hispanic voters supporting Moody (47% to 40%).

Amendment 3

The poll also asked voters about Florida’s Amendment 3, a proposed constitutional amendment that would increase the homestead exemption for non-school property taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, if approved by voters.

The amendment is supported by 55% of voters with 26% opposed and 19% undecided. Of those who support it, 49% said their primary reason was that property taxes are too high, while 55% of those who are opposed said they’re concerned about cuts to local services.

President Trump Approval

When asked about their approval of President Trump’s job performance, Florida voters were split, with 48% approving, 48% disapproving and 4% not sure.

Not surprisingly, support for the president was split on political lines with Republicans approving 83% to 14% and Democrats disapproving 88% to 12%, with Independents disapproving at 55% to 36%.

Men approved of Trump’s performance (55% to 41%) while women disapproved (54% to 43%).

White voters in the state support the president’s performance (60% to 37%) while Black voters overwhelmingly disapprove (86% to 11%) and Hispanic voters also disapprove (49% to 45%).

Economy

When asked about how their household is financially compared to two years ago, 34% of voters said it’s about the same, while 21% said they’re “much worse off financially.” Another 18% said they’re somewhat worse off financially while 14% said they’re somewhat better off financially and 12% said they’re much better off financially.

Voters were also asked about what’s had the greatest impact of their ability to afford everyday expenses and 26% said grocery and food prices, followed by 17% who said their income was not keeping pace with rising costs. Another 15% said they were most impacted by gas prices while 11% said healthcare costs and 10% said housing costs.

Immigration and Other Issues

Florida voters were also asked about the greatest influence on their voting decision in 2026, with 30% saying inflation and the cost of living, 17% saying the direction of the state or country, and 16% saying immigration enforcement.

When asked about immigration enforcement, 38% of voters said it should be focused primarily on people who have committed violent crimes, while 28% said it should be applied on all people in the country without legal status.

Voters also supported local and state police cooperating with Immigration and Customs Enforcement 53% to 45%, with 2% undecided.

But Florida voters disapproved of the Trump administration’s approach to immigration enforcement 51% to 46%, with 3% not sure.

When asked about birthright citizenship, 57% said it should remain as it is today, 20% said Congress should pass a law limiting it, and 17% said the Constitution should be amended to eliminate it.

Voters were also asked about data centers and artificial intelligence, with 52% believing AI will have a more negative effect on American society compared with 36% saying it will have a more positive effect.

The poll found 45% oppose having data centers in Florida while 38% support, with another 17% undecided.

A higher number, 59%, oppose building a data center in their community while 30% support building one and 11% are undecided.

Poll Details

The poll was conducted by polling and strategy firm Mason-Dixon, from Sept. 28 to Oct. 1, surveying a total of 625 randomly selected registered Florida voters live by telephone. All stated they were likely to vote in the Nov. 3 general election.

Of the 625 voters, 277 were registered Republicans, 214 were registered Democrats and 134 were registered as Independent.

The survey’s margin for error is no more than ± 4 percentage points, meaning there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed.

Complete poll results