Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly 48% to 41% in a new Mason-Dixon poll for NBC 6 and Telemundo, a lead outside the poll’s margin of error.

Another 1% picked someone else and 10% are undecided four weeks out from Election Day. The poll tested the full tickets, Donalds and former state Sen. Bryan Ávila against Jolly and former Congresswoman Gwen Graham.

Republicans hold an advantage of more than 1.5 million active registered voters over Democrats, 5.65 million to 4.1 million as of Aug. 31. This breaks down to 42% of voters are GOP, 30% Democratic, and 28% for everyone else. Mason-Dixon’s sample is 44% Republican, 34% Democrat, and 22% independent or other, giving Democrats a larger share of the sample than they hold on the rolls. The margin of error is ±4 percentage points.

Donalds takes 87% of Republicans, and Jolly takes 85% of Democrats. Jolly gets 4% of Republicans, and Donalds gets 10% of Democrats.

Independents favor Jolly 47% to 28%, with 24% undecided.

Men back Donalds 55% to 33% and women back Jolly 49% to 41%. The St. Pete Polls survey last month found the reverse, with men leaning Jolly and women leaning Donalds, though both splits were within the error margin.

Jolly leads Southeast Florida 52% to 36% and Tampa Bay, his home region, 48% to 42%. Donalds leads North Florida 60% to 33%, Central Florida 55% to 33%, and Southwest Florida, where he represents Naples in Congress, 57% to 33%.

White voters favor Donalds 59% to 30%. Hispanic voters favor him 48% to 43%. Black voters favor Jolly 76% to 10%, with 14% undecided. Donalds, who would be Florida’s first Black Governor, drew 16% of Black voters in the St. Pete Polls survey.

Jolly leads 48% to 46% among voters 18 to 34 and 46% to 45% among those 35 to 49. Donalds leads 49% to 40% among voters 50 to 64 and 51% to 35% among those 65 and older, the largest age group in the sample at 32%.

President Donald Trump‘s job approval is 48% approve, 48% disapprove. His administration’s approach to immigration enforcement gets 46% approval and 51% disapproval, while 53% support letting state and local police cooperate with ICE and 45% oppose it.

Inflation and the cost of living is the top issue for 30% of voters, ahead of the direction of the state or country at 17%, immigration enforcement at 16%, and property taxes at 13%. Asked how their household is doing compared with two years ago, 39% said worse off, 26% said better off, and 34% said about the same.

Voters oppose having data centers in Florida 45% to 38%, with 17% undecided, and oppose one in their own community 59% to 30%. Jolly has made opposition to the facilities central to his campaign. Democrats oppose data centers in the state 66% to 18%, independents oppose them 50% to 29%, and Republicans support them 58% to 26%.

Donalds and Ávila have framed the race as freedom versus socialism. Asked about candidates who call themselves “democratic socialists,” 52% said they would be less likely to vote for one, 8% said more likely, and 35% said it would make no difference. Among independents, 45% said they would be less likely. Among Democrats, 18% said less likely, 17% said more likely, and 57% said no effect.

Asked how they plan to vote, 48% said they will vote at the polls on Election Day, 28% by mail, and 19% early in person.

“This poll reflects what we are seeing on the ground. Between Byron’s non-stop schedule of campaign events, a field army that’s knocked more than 1.5 million doors, and a laser-focus on making Florida more affordable, Byron is well-positioned to win on November 3rd and keep Florida red,” said Ryan Smith, Chief Strategist for the Donalds campaign.

It is the first public poll since a Stetson University survey in late September to put Donalds ahead by more than the error margin. Stetson had Donalds at 51% and Jolly at 39%. Jolly adviser Mark Riddle dismissed it as a “garbage poll” for putting Republicans at half the sample.

Two polls released since then had the race within 2 points. A YouGov survey of 3,813 likely voters, fielded Sept. 28 through Oct. 5 and released Tuesday, has Donalds ahead 47% to 45%, with Trump at 46% approve and 54% disapprove. Change Research, a Democratic firm polling for Freedom Project USA, had Jolly ahead 48% to 46% in a survey fielded Sept. 25-27. A St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics in mid-September had Donalds at 44% and Jolly at 43%.

Donalds has not dropped below 44% in a public poll since the Aug. 18 Primary. Jolly has ranged from 39% to 48%.

The RealClearPolling average had Donalds ahead by 6 points before Tuesday’s two releases. Decision Desk HQ moved the race to a toss-up last month, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved it to Lean Republican the same week.

Donalds released two new ads Tuesday featuring the endorsements of Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis. Trump has promised to rally twice with Donalds before Election Day.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy of Jacksonville conducted the poll Sept. 28 through Oct. 1 for NBC 6 and the Telemundo Station Group. Live interviewers reached 625 registered voters statewide by telephone, all of whom said they were likely to vote in the General Election. Respondents were selected at random from a phone-matched voter registration list that included landline and cell numbers, with quotas assigned to reflect turnout by county. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level and higher for subgroups.

— Ed. Note: This story was drafted with assistance from AI. Peter Schorsch and the Florida Politics editorial team performed editorial judgment, sourcing, and final review.