New St. Pete Polls survey has Ashley Moody at 47%, Angie Nixon at 45%, and the Senate race still inside the margin of error

Republican U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon 47% to 45% in a new St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics, a lead inside the poll’s margin of error.

Another 2% picked someone else and 6% are undecided with four weeks until Election Day.

Moody picked up nearly 2 points since the pollster’s mid-September survey, which had both candidates at 45%. Nixon stayed at 45%. Undecideds fell from 7% to 6%.

Republicans hold an advantage of more than 1.5 million active registered voters over Democrats, 5.65 million to 4.1 million as of Aug. 31. That is 42% of the rolls to 30%, with 28% registered with no party or a minor party.

The sample was weighted to match: 42% Republican, 31% Democratic, and 27% everyone else. Republicans made up 44% of respondents before weighting.

Moody holds 82% of Republicans, up from 77% in September. Nixon holds 83% of Democrats, down from 85%. Nixon takes 14% of GOP voters and Moody takes 9% of Democrats. St. Pete Polls reports its demographic breakdowns before weighting.

Nixon leads 49% to 36% among voters outside the two major parties, with 9% undecided and 6% picking someone else. Her margin with that group was also 13 points in September.

A Mason-Dixon poll for NBC 6 and Telemundo released Tuesday had Nixon ahead 41% to 35% with independents, with 16% undecided.

Men back Nixon 48% to 45% and women back Moody 49% to 42%. In September, men leaned Moody by 2 points and women split at 45% each. Mason-Dixon had men for Moody 57% to 31% and women for Nixon 48% to 43%.

Voters under 30 back Nixon 66% to 24%, and she leads 53% to 36% among those 30 to 49.

Voters 50 to 69 split 46% Nixon to 45% Moody after favoring Moody by 5 points in September. Moody leads 66% to 30% with voters 70 and older, with 3% of that group undecided.

White voters favor Moody 55% to 39%, the same margin as September. Hispanic voters favor Nixon 50% to 43%, down from 12 points. Mason-Dixon had Hispanic voters favoring Moody 47% to 40%.

Black voters favor Nixon 67% to 14%, with 14% undecided. She drew 74% of Black voters in September and 81% in the Mason-Dixon survey. Nixon would be Florida’s first Black U.S. Senator.

Moody leads the Tampa market, the largest in the survey and her home base, 47% to 45%, down from 8 points in September. She leads West Palm Beach 59% to 38% and Fort Myers 56% to 34%.

Nixon leads Miami 50% to 41% and Orlando 51% to 42%. Moody leads Jacksonville, Nixon’s home market, 53% to 39% on a sample of 80 respondents. Nixon led there 52% to 42% in September. The smaller markets have too few respondents to draw conclusions.

Moody, a Plant City Republican, was twice elected Attorney General before Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed her last year to replace Marco Rubio, now Secretary of State. She won the GOP Primary with 80% of the vote.

Nixon is a state Representative from Jacksonville and a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. She won the Democratic nomination with 56% of the vote over Alex Vindman, who outspent her by more than 10-to-1.

Mason-Dixon’s survey, conducted Sept. 28 through Oct. 1 among 625 likely voters, had Moody ahead 50% to 40%. A YouGov survey of 3,813 likely voters fielded Sept. 28 through Oct. 5 had her ahead 49% to 44%.

Change Research, a Democratic firm polling for Freedom Project USA, had Moody leading 48% to 47% in a survey fielded Sept. 25-27. InsiderAdvantage, a Republican firm, had Moody up 49% to 42% on Sept. 20-21. A Stetson University poll fielded Sept. 14-21 had her ahead 51% to 40%.

Moody has been at 45% or better in every public poll since the Aug. 18 Primary. Nixon has ranged from 40% to 47%.

Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Republican, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates it Safe Republican.

Moody told supporters last week that the polls show a close race. “The polls have been all over the place. Some have us up. Two have us tied. But here’s what we do know: it’s close,” she wrote in a fundraising email.

EMILYs List endorsed Nixon last week, and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders plans to spend from his $23 million war chest on her behalf. Moody declined the first of three debate invitations last month.

Moody raised $11.3 million through July and had $8.4 million on hand after the Primary. Nixon had raised less than $1 million by then. Third-quarter reports are due to the Federal Election Commission on Oct. 15.

St. Pete Polls conducted the survey Oct. 5-7 for Florida Politics, using automated phone calls for 57% of responses and peer-to-peer text messages for 43%. Respondents were drawn at random from the state’s registered voter file as of Sept. 14. Results were weighted by political party, race, age, gender, and media market to match Florida’s active voter population.

Voters who said they do not plan to vote in the General Election were excluded. Of those who remained, 96% said they plan to vote in November and 4% were unsure. The survey of 836 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

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Ed. note: This story was drafted with assistance from AI. Peter Schorsch and the Florida Politics editorial team performed editorial judgment, sourcing, and final review.