A constitutional amendment that would raise the homestead exemption to $250,000 in 2028 has 42% support among likely voters, 18 points short of the 60% it needs to pass, according to a new St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics.

Another 35% oppose Amendment 3 and 23% are undecided with four weeks until Election Day.

Support fell 3 points from the pollster’s mid-September survey, which had the measure at 45% with 30% opposed and 25% undecided. Opposition rose 5 points.

Among voters who have made up their minds, the measure is at 55%, down from just under 60% in September. Undecided voters would have to break nearly 80-20 in favor for it to pass.

Republicans hold an advantage of more than 1.5 million active registered voters over Democrats, 5.65 million to 4.1 million as of Aug. 31. That is 42% of the rolls to 30%, with 28% registered with no party or a minor party.

The sample was weighted to match: 42% Republican, 31% Democratic, and 27% everyone else. Republicans made up 44% of respondents before weighting.

Republicans support the amendment 60% to 18%, with 22% undecided, down from 63% support in September. Gov. Ron DeSantis and gubernatorial nominee Byron Donalds both back it. St. Pete Polls reports its demographic breakdowns before weighting.

Independents split 38% to 38%, with 24% undecided. They favored it 40% to 32% in September. Democrats oppose it 57% to 20%, up from 48% opposed last month.

Hispanic voters support the amendment 48% to 26%. White voters support it 45% to 35%. Black voters oppose it 41% to 27%, with 32% undecided, after supporting it 41% to 29% in September.

Men support it 45% to 36% and women 40% to 34%. More women are undecided, 26% to 20%.

Voters under 30 oppose the amendment 55% to 24%. Those 30 to 49 oppose it 42% to 37% after supporting it by 3 points in September. Support is 46% to 30% among voters 50 to 69 and 47% to 29% among those 70 and older.

Tampa, the largest market in the survey, has 40% in favor and 36% opposed, down from 44% to 30% in September. Orlando opposes it 42% to 35%.

Miami supports it 43% to 35%, West Palm Beach 48% to 29%, Fort Myers 48% to 29%, and Jacksonville 44% to 35%. The smaller markets have too few respondents to draw conclusions.

A Mason-Dixon poll for NBC 6 and Telemundo conducted Sept. 28 through Oct. 1 found 55% support, 26% opposed, and 19% undecided among 625 likely voters. A Stetson University poll fielded Sept. 14-21 had it at 51% support, 25% opposed, and 24% undecided, with 61% of Republicans in favor.

A University of North Florida poll in July found 61% support when the measure was described without its effect on local budgets and 45% once respondents were told it would cost local governments $11.86 billion in revenue. A James Madison Institute poll later that month had 76% of likely voters in favor before they heard about tradeoffs and 55% after.

Amendment 3 would raise the homestead exemption for non-school taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028 and tie further increases to inflation starting in 2029. It would also cut the annual cap on assessment increases for non-homestead property from 10% to 5% and limit what counties and cities can spend property tax revenue on. New residents would wait five years for the full break.

State economists project the amendment would cut local non-school property tax revenue by $4.95 billion in fiscal year 2027-28 and $11.86 billion a year once fully phased in. It does not include replacement funding.

The Florida Sheriffs Association, the Florida State Fraternal Order of Police, and the Florida Professional Firefighters oppose the amendment, and DeSantis has broken with them over it. Nearly a dozen local business groups, including the Tampa Bay Chamber, the Jacksonville Civic Council, and the Orlando Economic Partnership, came out against it last week.

Former Senate President Kathleen Passidomo, who voted in June to put the measure on the ballot, said last week she will vote no. “I think it is a well-intentioned bill, but you know, the road to hell is paved with them,” she said.

The Republican Party of Florida backs the amendment. Florida Realtors has put $18 million into its Vote Yes on 3 political committee through Sept. 18. DeSantis told an audience at the University of Alabama last month that he does not know whether it will reach 60%.

Attorney General James Uthmeier rewrote the ballot language in August under court order, after a Leon County Judge found the original title, “Save our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes,” read like a political slogan.

St. Pete Polls conducted the survey Oct. 5-7 for Florida Politics, using automated phone calls for 57% of responses and peer-to-peer text messages for 43%. Respondents were drawn at random from the state’s registered voter file as of Sept. 14. Results were weighted by political party, race, age, gender, and media market to match Florida’s active voter population.

Voters who said they do not plan to vote in the General Election were excluded. The survey asked whether voters support or oppose “the state constitutional amendment 3 ballot question that would eliminate non-school property taxes on homesteaded primary residences.” The survey of 836 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

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Ed. note: This story was drafted with assistance from AI. Peter Schorsch and the Florida Politics editorial team performed editorial judgment, sourcing, and final review.