TALLAHASSEE — A Black Democrat and a white Republican, both women, are vying to be U.S. Senator from Florida. The governor’s bout has the opposite, and far more unusual, configuration: white male Democrat vs. Black male Republican.
And that has led to striking if sometimes subtle stylistic and rhetorical differences in how race is playing in these two top-of-the-ticket contests.
Angie Nixon, a progressive Democrat from urban Jacksonville, faces Ashley Moody, the former state attorney general appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis to fill out the remainder of Marco Rubio’s senate term.
In the governors’ race, Byron Donalds, a GOP congressman from mostly white suburban Naples is running against David Jolly, a former Republican congressman turned Democrat from Indian Shores, a beachside community in Pinellas County.
While Nixon leans into the issues that affect Black voters, Donalds, an early favorite with his endorsement from President Trump, eschewed Black political events and specific issues for most of his campaign, focusing on broader concerns like economic growth and school choice.
That’s a reflection of a difficult reality for Black candidates, especially in a Southern state, experts say: Progressives may motivate their base by engaging on race, but conservatives risk alienating their core supporters.
“Usually, when a Black candidate is running for state or national office in a predominantly white environment they downplay race, and don’t talk about race unless they have to,” University of Florida political science professor Sharon Wright Austin said.
But Donalds seemed to shift that stance in the last few weeks as recent polls show him running neck and neck with Jolly, who has overwhelming support among Black voters even though Donald is the first Black Republican nominee for governor and could become Florida’s first Black Governor.
Donalds only has 10-14% support among Blacks compared to Jolly’s 76-83% support in various surveys.
Florida Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly speaks during a campaign event at the Wynmoor Democratic Club on Monday, Oct. 5, 2026 in Coconut Creek. Jolly is drawing much more support from the Black community than his opponent, Byron Donalds. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
“Donalds knows that MAGA base may not be enough,” Austin said.
But, she said, “If he tries to talk to the Black voters, he will turn off the people in his base.”
And that is why he mostly sticks to “deracialized issues” like the economy and educational opportunities, she said.
Donalds also doesn’t have much support among rural white Republican voters, especially in the more “Dixie-fied” parts of the state, which at least some observers believe may connect to race.
It’s easy to assert that “Donalds is suffering some sort of racist electoral penalty … but kind of hard to prove, at least in advance,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a weekly political analysis newsletter published by the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
“I can totally see Donalds underperforming in North Florida,” said Matt Isbell, a Democratic political consultant who specializes in analyzing voter turnout.
But North Florida does not determine the outcome of an election the way South Florida does, Isbell said.
“If Donalds is to lose it won’t be because of the people in Lafayette County, it will be because moderate suburban Republicans are unhappy with the economy,” Isbell said.
In recent weeks, Donalds has focused more on the Black community – appearing at a historically Black college for the first time, meeting with leaders in South Florida’s Caribbean community and announcing a panel of mostly conservative Black leaders to assist with community outreach. Donalds appeared on Oct. 3, as did Jolly, at Onyx Magazine’s Men of Honor Gala at Rosen Centre Hotel in Orlando.
Donalds has also received the endorsement of Cynthia Moore Chestnut, a prominent Black Democrat and former state representative who currently sits on the Gainesville City Commission.
But most Blacks are wary of Donalds, largely because of his support of Trump and national GOP policies that seem like an existential threat to the future well-being and progress of Blacks, said Bruce Strouble, a political science professor at Florida A&M University.
“He doesn’t seem to speak to the issues of Black people, but policies that white Republican elitists like,” Strouble said.
Donalds voted for Trump’s so-called “Big Beautiful Bill Act” last year, which slashed over $1 trillion in social programs but included tax breaks for the wealthy.
He also opposed expanding protections for voters, and supported efforts to eliminate diversity, equity and inclusion programs and Black studies programs. And he supports Trump’s immigration policies, which pose trouble for many of the close to 160,000 Haitians living in Florida.
During a town hall meeting last month at Florida A&M University in Tallahassee, students sparred with Donalds over immigration, critical race theory, gun safety and the state’s diversity policies. Donalds, a former FAMU student himself, fired back by criticizing students for blindly voting for Democrats.
“I’m just gonna be blunt: stop moving like a monolith,” he said.
Strouble, who attended the meeting, said students came in wanting to learn more about Donalds, but “the more he talked the more they realized his ideas will hurt their futures.”
Political consultant Nikki Barnes noted that Donalds changes his own story, depending on the audience.
“When he is in front of a white audience, the story is about self sufficiency, independence, and pulling himself up by his bootstraps,” Barnes posted on social media. But when he gets in front of Black students, Barnes said, he talks about being raised by a single mother.
Unlike Donalds, Nixon is taking heat for her refusal to moderate her views or her rhetoric. Nixon has been called a “ghetto b—-,” has been ridiculed over her hairstyle, her wardrobe and her southern accent, and has faced political backlash for joining the Democratic Socialist Party.
Nixon trails Moody by 10 percentage points in the latest Mason-Dixon poll, with white voters supporting Moody 61% to 29% and Blacks supporting Nixon 81% to 10%.
“She recognizes she needs white votes,” Strouble said of Nixon. So she is pushing policies that help an entire economic class of people, whites and people of color. “It’s a class solidarity campaign,” he said. “White working class voters are realizing GOP policies aren’t working for them. It is a bold strategy. We will see if it works.”
Nixon is running the same kind of grassroots campaign she ran in the primary, where she defied expectations and defeated Alex Vindman, who outspent her 17 to 1.
She is going into rural white communities, another area where she outperformed Vindman in the primaries. She’s also emphasizing pocketbook issues, like inflation and gas prices. But she doesn’t limit herself to those issues.
“Nixon also doesn’t dance around the race issue, she calls it like she sees it,” Austin said.
When, during a campaign stop for Donalds, Vice President J.D. Vance said she should leave America, Nixon punched back.
Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody responds to cheering supporters after Governor Ron DeSantis, left, announced her appointment as U.S. senator to replace Marco Rubio, during a press conference at the Rosen Plaza Hotel in Orlando, Fla., Thursday, Jan. 16, 2025. Polls show Moody well in front of Democrat Angie Nixon in her bid to be elected to the post. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel)
“Imagine standing on the shoulders of the people who built this country & then telling their descendants they don’t belong here,” Nixon posted on social media.
Nixon has a chance of winning because “she is confronting the dog whistles openly,” Austin said.
“It would be erroneous to say she is not the underdog,” Austin said, “but if the people who want her to win turn out, she can win.”