NAVAL AIR STATION JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The weather this weekend will include wind, clouds and the potential for isolated showers and storms.
But it’s the clouds that airshow fans should keep an eye on.
The Naval Air Station Jacksonville Airshow begins at 11 a.m. on Saturday and Sunday and will feature military and civilian aircraft demonstrations, including the Blue Angels’ performance at 3 p.m.
But the cloud cover we’re expecting could affect exactly which performances you’ll see.
That’s because the performers always have a plan, and the show will change depending on visibility and the “ceiling” of the clouds.
With regard to the Blue Angels, as long as the pilots can see at least three and a half miles, they will fly, even in rain, unless it reduces visibility or becomes severe.
To be able to perform, the Blue Angels must have at least 3 nautical miles of visibility horizontally from the center point, and a minimum cloud ceiling of 1,500 feet, which the FAA can waive to 1,000 feet.
So what will this weekend’s ceiling be?
Model soundings give us a good idea of what the “ceiling” or cloud base (the lowest altitude or height of the cloud layer above the ground) should be.
From the surface to the upper atmosphere, dew point (green line) and temperature (red line) are plotted. When the green and red lines touch, condensation occurs, which causes clouds to form.
The potential sounding for early Saturday afternoon. (Tropical Tidbits)
Take Saturday, for example, above. Notice how in the early afternoon the red and green lines touch near the lower part of the sounding at roughly 900 millibars.
That implies that clouds will form at roughly 3,000-5,000 feet. The lines also only touch in a small part of the sounding, which would also imply that the cloud deck would be thin.
The potential sounding for early Sunday afternoon. (Tropical Tidbits)
Sunday’s sounding is above. Notice how in the early afternoon the red and green lines touch near the lower part of the sounding at roughly 900 to 800 millibars.
That implies that clouds will form at roughly 3,000-5,000 feet and could tower up to almost 7,000 feet. This would indicate that there will likely be a thicker cloud deck.
How it affects the show
How thick or widespread the clouds are will determine which of three programs are flown, and the decision is often made shortly before the show begins.
The “high show” is performed using the entire 15,000 feet of vertical airspace and includes all the aerobatics you are used to seeing.
As clouds drop, the show eliminates some aerobatics, typically when the ceiling hovers around 4,500 feet in the “low show.”
Don’t expect to see any upward maneuvers with the “flat show” during overcast 1,000-foot ceilings.
More on this weekend’s weather
NAS Jax Airshow.
The most noticeable change to our weather will be cooler temperatures behind a cold front.
Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 70s each afternoon.
It will be partly to mostly cloudy each day and will be windy. Winds could gust up to 40 mph at times.
An area of low pressure along with a front will keep clouds and the potential for rain and storms in the forecast.
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