Former Gov. Charlie Crist leads incumbent St. Petersburg Mayor Ken Welch by 21 points, a new poll of the St. Pete Mayor’s race finds.
It’s only the second poll of the race since the Primary, and both show Crist with a lead of at least 20 points. This one was taken the same day Crist and Welch squared off in the General Election’s only televised debate, on Spectrum Bay News 9.
The debate largely focused on issues facing St. Pete and the candidates’ stances on them, such as the bond referendum on the same ballot asking voters to authorize up to $600 million in general obligation bonds, which Welch supports and Crist opposes. The debate was otherwise a lackluster affair, with no standout moments likely to shift the race.
The latest St. Pete Polls survey puts Crist’s support just above 50% when respondents are asked whom they support. When voters leaning toward a candidate but not yet decided are included, Crist’s support rises to 53%, a 21-point lead over Welch, who draws 32% in both scenarios.
About 15% of voters remain undecided in that scenario, and even if Welch captured every one of them, he’d still fall short of victory on Nov. 3.
The poll was taken Oct. 13 among 419 likely St. Petersburg voters. The margin of error is 4.8 percentage points.
On its own, the poll is a damning message for the incumbent. Taken in the context of the rest of the race, it’s hard to imagine a path for Welch. Voting continues through Election Day on Nov. 3, less than three weeks away, but Welch doesn’t have the resources to get his message out and begin reversing his deficit.
As of the most recent reports, covering financial activity through Oct. 2, Welch’s fundraising appears all but dried up.
Welch’s latest haul didn’t reach five figures: $9,650 raised from Sept. 26 through Oct. 2 between his campaign and his affiliated political committee, St. Petersburg Progress. In all, Welch has just over $41,000 left for the home stretch.
Crist has nearly $411,000 between his campaign and his St. Pete Shines political committee.
Worse for Welch, Crist’s fundraising operation is in full sprint, with nearly $100,000 raised in the most recent reporting period, about 10 times what Welch raised. The trend dates to before the Primary, and the trouble was on display as early as January, when it was reported that the treasurer of a previous Welch political committee had stolen more than $200,000.
That treasurer has since pleaded guilty in relation to that and other thefts, but the loss went unnoticed for months. Welch is an accountant by trade.
Welch’s fundraising deficit means Crist’s campaign will have the resources to blast its message to voters and contrast Crist’s platform with Welch’s record, while Welch’s operation has limited funds, not enough to buy much television advertising in high-profile time slots.
A comeback of this magnitude is difficult even for a well-funded candidate. It seems virtually impossible without the means to boost visibility. The disparity is already on full display.
In the most recent one-week reporting period, St. Pete Shines spent more than $66,000 on a media buy and more than $36,000 on mailers. Welch’s largest expense was a little over $3,000 to the Florida Democratic Party for payroll. Nothing went to direct voter outreach, such as digital media buys or mailers.
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Ed. note: Michelle Todd Schorsch is the Chair of St. Pete Shines, a political committee backing Crist for St. Petersburg Mayor. Todd Schorsch is married to Peter Schorsch, the publisher of Florida Politics.