5 things I think I think about the St. Pete Mayor’s race, with 14,000 ballots in and early voting opening Monday

Early voting opens Monday. Nearly 14,000 St. Petersburg mail ballots are already sitting at the Supervisor of Elections office, 9% of the city’s 164,000 registered voters. So here are 5 things I think I think about the Mayor’s race, with the right to revise all of it as the numbers come in.

1. A Governor’s race electorate is picking the Mayor.

At this point in 2024, about 13,600 city voters had returned a mail ballot. This year it is nearly 14,000. In 2022, the last midterm, it was about 20,700.

City voters requested 55,000 mail ballots this cycle, against 69,000 in 2024 and 92,000 in 2022. A 2021 state law wiped the old standing requests after 2022, and the 2022 pool still carried requests made during the pandemic. The smaller pool is coming back faster: 26% of ballots mailed are in, compared with 20% at this point in 2024 and 23% in 2022.

Ken Welch won in 2021 in an off-year election. This is a Governor’s race year, and the people voting are the ones who turn out for a Governor’s race. Figure the Nov. 3 electorate at roughly 100,000 voters, about double the August Primary. Tens of thousands of them have never voted in a St. Pete Mayor’s race.

2. Democrats are half the mail vote, and Crist is winning Democrats.

Democrats have returned about 7,000 ballots, half the total, and lead Republicans by about 3,000. Republicans have returned about 4,000, or 29%. NPA voters have returned about 2,500, or 18%.

The race is nonpartisan and both men are Democrats. The September St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics had Charlie Crist ahead among Democrats 47-39, among Republicans 56-18, and among NPA voters 57-25.

Apply those splits to the ballots already in and Crist is at about 7,200, Welch at about 4,200, with about 2,500 unassigned. That is 52% to 30%. Welch could win every unassigned ballot in the pile and still lose the mail vote, 52-48.

The October survey, fielded on debate day, had Crist up 21. Run the math with those numbers and it barely moves.

3. Welch’s voters are the slowest to send their ballots back.

Three-quarters of the Democratic margin, about 2,200 ballots, comes from voters who cast ballots in each of the last four General Elections. Districts 6, 7, and 8 account for about 2,400 of it.

Districts 7 and 8 have the lowest return rates in the city, about 7% of registered voters. The city is at 9%. District 3 is at 10%.

Black voters have returned ballots at 6% of registration. White voters are at 10%. Black Democrats have returned 21% of the ballots they requested. White Democrats have returned 26%. Precinct 162, the largest in the city with about 6,100 registered voters, is at 4%.

In August I wrote that Welch needs 70% or better of the Black vote to have a path. The September poll had him at 46%, the only group where he led. He is at 46% with the group returning ballots slower than everyone else.

Getting those ballots back costs money. Phones, texts, mail, doors. There are about 21,700 Democratic mail ballots still out. Welch’s political committee reported no new money in its most recent filing. Crist’s side had about $400,000.

4. Republicans are the swing vote in a race between two Democrats, and they are voting early.

Republicans are 29% of the ballots returned, up from 28% at this point in 2024. They are returning requested ballots at 29%, against 25% for Democrats. Of the city Republicans who voted by mail in 2022, 28% have already sent one back this year. Among Democrats, 25% have.

The September poll had Crist winning Republicans by 38 points. They are voting for the guy who used to be one of them.

In 2024, the Democratic share of the city’s pre-Election Day vote fell from 52% at this point to 48% by the end as early voting came in. In 2022, it went the other way, 51% to 52%. A Governor’s race at the top of the ballot pulls Republicans out.

My marker: if Democrats are under half of all ballots cast by the end of the first week of early voting, the electorate is tracking 2024, and Welch’s math gets worse from here.

5. What I’m watching for the next 16 days.

Early voting runs Monday through Nov. 1, 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., at seven county sites. Two are in the city: the J.W. Cate Recreation Center at 5801 22nd Ave. N. and the Supervisor of Elections office at 501 First Ave. N. The Gulfport Neighborhood Center sits just across the line. In 2022, roughly 11,000 city voters used early voting. In 2024, roughly 38,000 did.

The two Sundays, Oct. 25 and Nov. 1. Souls to the Polls is Welch’s best turnout tool and it costs him nothing. Watch the Monday numbers after each one.

The 27,000 mailed ballots still out that belong to four-of-four voters. Those come back. The pool still out is 53% Democratic, so the party mix of the mail vote will not move much. Watch whether Districts 7 and 8 and precinct 162 close the gap to the city rate.

Thursday, Oct. 22, at 5 p.m., the deadline to request a mail ballot. Returned ballots must reach the Supervisor’s office by 7 p.m. on Election Day. You can check yours online.

My number. In 2024, nearly nine in 10 mailed ballots came back. In 2022, about seven in 10. Split the difference and the city’s mail vote lands somewhere around 42,000. Crist can win this race in the mailbox. A third of it is already in.

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Ed. Note: Michelle Todd Schorsch is the Chair of St. Pete Shines, a political committee backing Crist for St. Petersburg Mayor. Todd Schorsch is married to Peter Schorsch, the publisher of Florida Politics. Florida Politics uses generative AI tools in the production of some of its content.