FORT MYERS, Fla. (WINK) — President Donald Trump is coming to Southwest Florida Friday to help Congressman Byron Donalds win the governor’s race. But why spend precious campaign time in one of Florida’s most Republican regions?
University of Central Florida political scientist Aubrey Jewett says it’s less about changing minds and more about getting Republicans to the polls.
Trump won nearly 64% of Lee County’s vote in 2024. Today, registered Republicans outnumber Democrats here by more than two to one.
Statewide, Republicans have a voter registration advantage of more than 1.5 million.
“If they can really mobilize the Republican base, the MAGA base that still really thinks Trump is doing a great job and really is going to support the Republican Party, then they have an excellent chance to win because the numbers are in their favor,” Jewett said.
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Still, Jewett says Trump’s visit could also reflect some Republican concern about November’s election.
A Fox News poll released October 14 found 36% of registered voters nationwide approve of Trump’s job performance, the lowest approval rating of his second term in Fox’s polling. A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll released October 18 put his national approval rating at 33%.
His standing is stronger in Florida. A Stetson University poll released October 13 found 50% of likely Florida voters approve of his performance. The three surveys measure different populations.
Jewett says Trump’s presence could energize Republican voters, but also motivate opponents dissatisfied with his presidency.
“If Trump’s unpopularity is high enough, and this election in Florida becomes a referendum just on the president, then Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody are in some trouble,” Jewett said.
Polling in the governor’s race has produced mixed results. An October St. Pete Polls survey found Donalds virtually tied with Democrat David Jolly at roughly 45% each. A Stetson poll showed Donalds ahead by 11 points, 52% to 41%.
For Southwest Florida voter Dan Gemeiner, Trump’s visit is welcome news.
“I think it’s great that he’s coming here. Shows concern for Southwest Florida and the voters, and we have to make sure that he does the right thing,” Gemeiner said.
Gemeiner believes the president is working to bring prices down.
“I think that he’s trying to do all he can do to bring prices down. It’s not easy with what’s going on in this world today, but I think that once we resolve this and hopefully soon, everything will set back to semi-normalcy,” he said.
He won’t attend Friday’s rally at Alico Arena, but plans to watch. He wants to hear Trump’s views on the war, the economy and the country’s future.
Gemeiner says he’s voting for Donalds in November.
Asked whether anything could change his mind, his answer was simple.
“Nothing.”