Oct 18, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Dash midfielder Kat Rader (22) controls the ball during the second half against the Orlando Pride at Shell Energy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
Fitting that the two clubs featured in this week’s column faced each other in National Women’s Soccer League action over the weekend. The Houston Dash had an extra two weeks to stew in their already-eliminated status, while the Orlando Pride needed three wins and multiple breaks to go their way in order to stay alive. After a 2-1 loss at ShellEnergy Stadium and the Seattle Reign’s later defeat of the Chicago Stars on Sunday, the gates to the 2026 playoffs closed on the Pride, the sixth team to suffer that fate so far this year.
As we did last week, we will unpack the seasons the NWSL’s first two expansion sides dealt with this year—the few ups, the many downs, and how they can move on to the next phase of their journeys. We’ll compare preseason expectations to current reality, using an average of two different projection models: a player-performance-based model from American Soccer Analysis and an historical team performance model from Trevor Larner.
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