The Pitt Panthers (5-2) are heading down south to Hard Rock Stadium to face the undefeated Miami Hurricanes (6-0). The teams will face off in Miami’s first day game, a noon kick off on Saturday the 24th on ESPN.

The ‘Canes are three touchdown favorites over the Panthers with a 92.4% win expectancy over Pitt per ESPN.

The Hurricanes are 3rd overall per the SP+ while Pitt is 36th overall. Miami is 1st in offense, 10th in defense, and 29th in kicking. Pitt is 52nd in offense, 29th in defense, and 61st in kicking.

Miami’s offense is 7th on 3rd down converting 53% of the time, and 99th on 4th down converting 40% of the time. Pitt is 75th on 3rd down converting 39% of their tries while 105th on 4th down converting only 38% of the time.

The ‘Canes are 71st in FBS on defensive 3rd down conversions allowing 39% to be converted. Pitt is 51st allowing only 37% of their opponents tries.

Miami is 8th overall in turnover margin per game at +1.0, while Pitt is just behind Miami at 14th with +0.8.

Miami is 121st in penalty yards per game while being flagged for 72 yards per game while Pitt is 110th in penalty yards with 68 per game.

Pitt PK Antonio Chadha is 10-of-11 on FG’s and 26-of-26 on PAT’s. They don’t have a spectacular return game to be concerned about, but they did block a punt vs. BC that is a concern for Dylan Joyce and UM.

The Panthers are without starting QB Mason Heintschel (ACL) and backup Corey Dailey, a true freshman, struggled against Boston College.

Against BC the Panthers were 4-of-12 on money downs while the Eagles were 9-of-16.

Pitt was flagged 13 times for 133 yards while BC was flagged just seven times for 47 yards. A Pitt vs. Miami matchup will be a yellow flag-fest without a doubt.

Pitt turned the ball over three times to BC’s two. The Panthers QB, Dailey, threw two picks and the RB fumbled one away

Chadha was a perfect 4-of-4 on FG’s and 1-of-1 on PAT’s. They executed a fake punt AND a blocked punt!

While Dailey struggled he did average 7.7 yards per pass attempt and threw one TD which isn’t horrible. But his two INT’s really hurt Pitt’s chances.

Dailey also only hit four different receivers, with three going for double-digit yards per catch marks. Miami native WR Cataurus Hicks could be an issue for the ‘Canes as he’ll have motivation on a trip back home. Hicks averaged 27 yards per catch with a TD vs. BC.

Damon Ferguson Jr. averaged seven yards per carry on 17 touches for Pitt but fumbled one away. La’Vell Wright averaged only 3.5 per carry in the thumper role.

The Pitt O-Line allowed one sack and four TFL’s against the Eagles defense.

Above- Hicks has the ability to beat a Miami CB 1-on-1. He’s fast, runs solid routes, and will want to show out against his hometown squad.

Above- Ferguson isn’t going down easy. This isn’t flag football, more than just a hand on a hip when I dip you dip will have to be done for Miami to bring him down.

Above- I would absolutely attack Miami wide and force Lucas and the other banged up DB’s (Fitzgerald) to tackle in space.

Above- this one is a little high but if it hits your hands REEL IT IN! Dailey will make mistakes and Miami needs to pick these types of passes off.

Above- There’s no doubt Pitt’s run game is solid but with no QB threat TFL’s will be there. Much like sacks are there when teams throw 40+ times a game. This is a Moten, Scott, Blount type of ball game.

Above- Another Ferguson broken tackle. You CAN’T arm tackle this guy and expect him to go down. And head across vs him? He’ll knock Poyser out with that. Get your head behind, double leg him, squeeze the back of the thighs.

Above- Pitt throwing an RPO tagged hitch. That’s a WIDE OPEN 1-on-1 situation. Miami has struggled mightily in these situations. Thornton especially has struggled in them. I hope Hetherman has been working on open field tackling…

Above- If Dailey fires into double coverage Dunnigan and Fitzgerald need to take advantage of him. No more dropping INT’s like vs. Ole Miss in ‘25 or missing PBU’s and INT’s like this season. Time to turn it on.

On defense, Pitt allowed QB Mason McKenzie to average 10.5 yards per pass attempt with two TD’s but also picked him twice. DB Raion Stader had both picks for Pitt.

McKenzie hit eight different receivers with receptions with five hitting the double-digit yards per catch mark. Landon Wright exploded for a 60+ yard TD so imagine the work Malachi Toney could do vs. Pitt.

The Panthers stoned the BC rushing attack holding the Eagles RB’s to 3.8 and 3.2 yards per carry except both scored once on the ground.

BC’s O-Line allowed two sacks and seven TFL’s on the day. DL Jaeden Moore had 1.5 TFL’s while DL Sean
FitzSimmons logged a sack and TFL. Miami’s OL will be tested by the Pitt front-6.

Above- Pitt’s defense was still really good vs. BC, and a missing QB won’t slow them down. They have some holes but that DL is a true Pitt DL. They’ll get after Mensah if Miami can’t shore up the pass pro schemes.

Above- Pitt was all over this outside zone read play from BC. They play sound football even if they’re highly penalized it’s not in responsibilities it’s in dumb stuff.

Above- THE FLATS. If the flats are open stop hitting Lofton there and try Upshaw. If Barkate is just a decoy and blocker Dawson needs to get Upshaw more touches in space.

Above- So gaping holes are there for the Miami run game, awesome. BC has the 102nd best offense per SP+ Miami is #1. I expect some huge runs from Mallory vs. Pitt.

Above- The bang is to the B-gap but the LB is there at the LOS so he bends back to the A-gap and scores. Mallory seems to love this type of read and position. Give the young buck the rock.

Above- Mensah has only one INT, right? But he threw into double and triple coverage and got lucky that FSU is a 90 something SP+ defense. Pitt’s defense is 29th in SP+ and will take advantage of stupid throws.

Above- A safe throw is the back shoulder throw. I’ve been waiting for Barkate to take advantage of these with Mensah and their experience together at Duke. It’s happened in very small spurts. It needs to happen more vs. Pitt who likes to keep their CB’s on an island

Above- 4 verts in the red zone is crazy stuff but if you’re seeing 1-high it’s a great call. Force that FS to cover both WR’s the over guy and the seam guy and drop a dime in to the seam guy. The over guy should be Toney, let him draw attention. The seam guy can be Upshaw.

Above- What’s open? How about Smash!?! I haven’t seen enough Smash routes and Toney breaking short with Barkate running the corner could spell trouble for aggressive D’s trying to bracket no1.

Above- Trail technique was the death of Tyler Van Dyke and Carson Beck. Will Mensah feel the CB baiting him or suffer the under thrown ball as well?

Above- Pitt’s lone punt rush guy splits a double and blocks the punt. Miami CAN NOT afford this to happen. Cristobal’s kicking game slappy needs to shape up for ship out.

Above- A fake punt! Narduzzi is ballsy and knows he doesn’t have a QB so he’ll try any means necessary. I’d also watch out for an onside kick.

The Canyonero Keys to Victory main theme for Miami from the summer was that Pitt was a Gunner and they should be prepared for chucking it deep. Without Heintschel I can’t see that being possible. The individual keys to victory are:

1- Protect Mensah. The Pitt DL will be stout as always and Narduzzi is no dummy. He’ll pick apart Miami’s pass protection and get pressure on Mensah with 4-5 guys and not typically sell the farm to do it. Miami has to protect Mensah against a hard hitting squad like the Panthers.

2- Tighten up in the back end. Miami can’t allow Dailey or whoever Pitt runs out there behind center to beat up on the DB’s. Miami has now made Gio Lopez and Ashton Daniels look like All-Americans. Where was Damon Wilson on Saturday night? He didn’t even log an assisted tackle.

3- Don’t get caught up in penalties. These are two highly penalized teams- Cristobal preaches discipline, PROVE IT ON THE FIELD. The only way Pitt has a shot is if Miami gives them more chances on offense with dumb penalties like late hits and targeting.

Score Prediction: Miami by 17. I can’t picture Pitt hanging with the ‘Canes without a real QB. Miami needs to get right in pass coverage, tackling, and in protecting Mensah.