The number 34 will not leave Ken Welch alone.

A Tampa Bay Times review found he swiped into City Hall on 34% of workdays during his first eight months as Mayor. His job approval rating sat at 34%, underwater, in June. The latest St. Pete Polls survey of the St. Petersburg Mayor’s race puts his share of the vote at 34%.

Forty-two percent of respondents said they have already cast a ballot, by mail or at an early voting site. Charlie Cristleads them 60% to 34%. Five percent would not say.

Among all voters surveyed, Crist leads Welch 54% to 34% once undecided voters are pushed to say which way they lean. On the first ask, before the lean question, it is 51% to 32%, with 17% undecided. The lean question cuts the undecided share to 12%.

The survey carries a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points. Crist’s lead is more than four times that.

Democrats hold a 15-point registration edge in the city, 42% to 27% for Republicans, with the other 30% registered with neither major party. Crist is even with Welch among Democrats, 46% to 45%. Crist takes Republicans 62% to 21% and independents 62% to 29%.

Among the 58% who have not yet voted, Welch is at 30%, with Crist at 45% and 25% undecided. Welch trails by 20 points among all voters with 12% undecided. Give him every one of them and he finishes at 46%.

The last St. Pete Polls survey, in early September, had Crist at 52% and Welch at 27%. Crist has held a majority in both surveys taken since the Primary. Welch has not reached 35% in any St. Pete Polls head-to-head this year.

Black voters gave Welch a 55% to 16% lead over Crist in March. The two were roughly even among Black voters in September. In this survey, Crist leads them 45% to 41%, in a subsample of 73.

Crist leads among men, 57% to 30%, and women, 53% to 37%. Voters 70 and older, more than half of whom say they have already voted, go to Crist 65% to 27%.

Crist has led every St. Pete Polls head-to-head since March, when the margin was 36% to 31%. He led by 8 points in June, 44% to 28% in mid-July, and 45% to 30% in late July. He then beat Welch 35% to 21% in the Aug. 18 Primary.

St. Pete Polls conducted the survey for Florida Politics on Thursday and Friday, Oct. 22 and 23, well after the final candidate debate and forums had taken place. Respondents were reached through a mix of automated phone calls (40%) and peer-to-peer text messages (60%), drawn from the state’s voter rolls as of Sept. 14. Results were weighted by party, race, age, and gender to match the city’s active voter population. Respondents who said they do not plan to vote for Mayor were excluded.

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Ed. note: Michelle Todd Schorsch is the Chair of St. Pete Shines, a political committee backing Crist for St. Petersburg Mayor. Todd Schorsch is married to Schorsch, the publisher of Florida Politics.

Ed. note: This story was drafted with assistance from AI. Editorial judgment, sourcing, and final review were performed by Peter Schorsch and the Florida Politics editorial team.