The College Football Playoff picture within the ACC this season is a convoluted mess coming down the stretch, much of that due to 15th-ranked Miami’s recent failures as one of the league’s most-talented teams. The Hurricanes (7-2) are the selection committee’s new favorite in the conference following unexpected stumbles from Virginia and Louisville last week, but that’s not necessarily an overwhelmingly positive omen for Miami.
Under playoff protocol, five highest-ranked conference champions receive auto-bids in the 12-team bracket, but there’s a long and winding road for the Hurricanes — currently saddled with two ACC losses — to even get that opportunity to be the league’s last team standing. And in the at-large conversation, there’s even more worry, despite this week’s three-spot rise in the rankings.
Miami’s College Football Playoff pathCollege Football Playoff ranking: No. 15
Playoff seed: No. 11 (committee’s projected ACC champion)
Best wins: No. 9 Notre Dame, No. 24 USF
Losses: No. 20 Louisville, SMU
Remaining path
It feels like Miami’s bracket entry this week needs an explainer after the committee ranked the Hurricanes as the ACC’s best team in Tuesday’s update despite six teams being ahead of them in the league standings. Unless Miami wins the conference, which is way down on the list of possibilities the rest of the way, the only chance the Hurricanes reach the playoff is to make the bracket as an at-large selection. Perhaps the win over Notre Dame is re-examined in the coming weeks by the committee and Miami gets the edge? Who knows.
There’s still an extremely chaotic path to a league title game appearance for the Hurricanes. Starting with winning out, they need four of the following five scenarios to happen to play in Charlotte the first weekend of December:
Vegas says
Seven ACC teams are at plus-money in the playoff discussion, which suggests oddsmakers are’t sure who to install as the current favorite to win the league and get to the bracket. In Miami’s case, odds are stacked against the Hurricanes at +490 (yes) and -790 (no), per FanDuel. That’s what happens at 2-2 over your last four games entering Saturday’s matchup with NC State.
We think …
Miami moved up three spots in Tuesday’s update, but there’s a hint of false hope there. As the ACC’s highest-ranked team, the Hurricanes were the spot-filler at No. 11 in the projected bracket if the season ended today — but it doesn’t and there’s simply too many hills to climb for Mario Cristobal’s team to get in the playoff. For starters, it would help the Hurricanes if Notre Dame, Texas, Oklahoma, BYU and Vanderbilt lost another game.
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