Attorney General James Uthmeier leads Democrat José Javier Rodríguez 49% to 44%, and Chief Financial Officer Blaise Ingoglia leads Democrat Annette Taddeo 47% to 43%, in a new St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics. The sample is weighted R+12. Republicans lead the ballots returned through Tuesday morning by four-tenths of a point.

Another 7% are undecided in the Attorney General race and 9% in the CFO race. Neither question offered a “someone else” option. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

Republicans outnumber Democrats on the rolls by roughly 1.5 million, 5.69 million to 4.15 million at the Oct. 5 book closing, with 3.35 million more registered to no party. The rolls are R+8.

St. Pete Polls’ mid-September survey had Uthmeier ahead 43% to 42%, and its Oct. 5-7 survey had him ahead 45% to 43%. Undecided has gone from 15% to 12% to 7%. The CFO race was first tested in October, at 44% to 42% with 14% undecided.

Among respondents who said they had already voted, Rodríguez leads 56% to 41% and Taddeo leads 55% to 39%. Among those who still plan to vote, Uthmeier leads 56% to 33% and Ingoglia leads 55% to 33%, with 11% and 12% undecided.

Through Tuesday morning, mail ballots returned to the Division of Elections ran Democratic by 113,200. In-person early votes ran Republican by 125,966. Republicans had cast 12,766 more of the 3.15 million ballots returned.

Reweighted to R+10, Uthmeier leads 48% to 45% and Ingoglia 46% to 44%. At the registration split, Uthmeier leads 47% to 46% and the CFO race is tied at 45%.

Uthmeier holds 83% of Republicans, up from 78% in October. Rodríguez holds 82% of Democrats, up from 79%. Independents favor Rodríguez 52% to 36%, with 13% undecided, after favoring him 48% to 37% last month. St. Pete Polls reports its demographic breakdowns before weighting.

Ingoglia holds 82% of Republicans and Taddeo holds 81% of Democrats, each up about 3 points from October. Independents favor Taddeo 51% to 32%, with 18% undecided, up from 45% to 35%.

Men back Uthmeier 50% to 42% and women back him 48% to 45%. In October, men leaned Rodríguez by 3 points. Men back Ingoglia 50% to 41%; women split 46% Ingoglia to 45% Taddeo.

Rodríguez leads 61% to 30% with voters under 30, 49% to 38% with those 30 to 49, and 48% to 45% with those 50 to 69. Uthmeier leads 66% to 30% with voters 70 and older. Taddeo leads 52% to 28% with voters under 30, 51% to 37% with those 30 to 49, and 47% to 45% with those 50 to 69. Ingoglia leads 63% to 30% with voters 70 and older.

White voters back Uthmeier 59% to 35% and Ingoglia 57% to 34%. Black voters back Rodríguez 71% to 16% and Taddeo 71% to 18%. Hispanic voters back Rodríguez 52% to 41% and Taddeo 54% to 39%.

Uthmeier leads the Tampa market 51% to 40%, Orlando 49% to 46%, Jacksonville 50% to 38%, West Palm Beach 48% to 43%, and Fort Myers 65% to 29%. Rodríguez leads his home Miami market 50% to 46%.

Ingoglia leads Tampa 49% to 41%, Orlando 51% to 41%, Jacksonville 49% to 41%, and Fort Myers 56% to 37%. Taddeo leads her home Miami market 48% to 46% and West Palm Beach 48% to 39%.

Uthmeier was Chief of Staff to Gov. Ron DeSantis, who appointed him Attorney General in early 2025 after Ashley Moody left for the U.S. Senate. He has endorsements from President Donald Trump, the Florida Sheriffs Association, and the Florida Police Benevolent Association. Rodríguez is a labor lawyer from Miami who served in the Florida House and Senate and was an Assistant Secretary of Labor under former President Joe Biden.

Ingoglia, a Spring Hill Republican, former state Senator, and former Chair of the Republican Party of Florida, was appointed CFO by DeSantis in July 2025 after Jimmy Patronis left for Congress. Taddeo is a former state Senator and former Chair of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party. She took nearly 66% of the vote in the Aug. 18 Primary, the strongest showing of any Democrat running statewide.

St. Pete Polls surveyed 916 likely voters Oct. 25-27 for Florida Politics, using automated phone calls for 71% of responses and peer-to-peer text messages for 29%. Respondents were drawn at random from the state’s registered voter file as of Oct. 14. Results were weighted by political party, race, age, gender, and media market to match Florida’s active voter population. The weighted sample is 43% Republican, 31% Democratic, and 27% other. Voters who said they do not plan to vote in the General Election were excluded. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

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Ed. note: This story was drafted with assistance from AI. Editorial judgment, sourcing, and final review were performed by Peter Schorsch and the Florida Politics editorial team.