TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV/Gray Florida Capital Bureau) – Election day is just four days away and early voting records show a strong turnout in Florida counties, especially among Democrats, though Republicans are still expected to win.
Governor Ron DeSantis said voters are not turning out to Republican strongholds, like Polk County, as they have in the past. Couple that with some recent polling, and it could make for an interesting election day.
DeSantis said Polk County has 60,000 more Republicans than Democrats, but early voting results are lagging.
“The less populous rural areas of North Florida tend to vote more Republican, whereas the larger urban areas of the state, particularly South Florida and a little bit of the I-4 corridor, tend to vote a bit more Democrat,” University of South Florida professor Susan MacManus said.
Florida politics:
But Republicans can expect a huge bump on election day itself, as the president has consistently criticized mail-in voting.
“A lot of Republicans don’t do that anymore. And instead, on election day, in a lot of elections since Trump has been on the national political scene, we see Republicans really surge on election day itself,” University of Central Florida associate professor Aubrey Jewett said.
For Democrats to win, experts say they need their entire base to turn out, some Republicans to stay home and some to switch sides.
“We had Governor DeSantis win reelection by 19, Trump won by 13. So, year, no matter what happens, I would still agree that Florida’s a red state, but with the caveat, there’s different shades of red,” Jewett said.
Experts say for a statewide Democrat to squeak through for the first time since 2018, the race would be close.
“There are those [polls] who show one or two percent difference between Jolly and Donalds, with the edge going to Donalds,” MacManus said. “And there are others that show the gap to be closer, anywhere from seven to 10% difference.”
These professors said they expect Florida to remain a red state. Just what shade of red and how it factors into the overall national outlook could be different.
Early voting in most counties is open this weekend and in-person voting is on November 3.
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