Once seen as a likely Republican victory in the battle for control of the U.S. House, South Florida’s 22nd Congressional District has turned into a high-stakes cliffhanger, drawing millions in super PAC spending, attention from national analysts, and campaign visits from political heavyweights.
And, perhaps inevitably, President Donald Trump has weighed in with his thoughts.
The contest between Republican Casey Askar and Democrat Pia Dandiya is now rated as one of fewer than two dozen toss-up races nationwide by the leading, independent forecasters. The outcome rests on which pockets of voters turn out — and what motivates them — in the sprawling district that includes communities in western Broward and Palm Beach counties and extends across the Everglades to the Gulf of Mexico.
Spirited campaign
The campaign playbook is, in many ways, familiar.
Askar says prices are an issue. One policy pitch from Askar, whose business interests have included fuel distribution, is eliminating the federal gasoline tax.
But has also has used messaging that’s proven effective in South Florida in the past and that Republicans are using elsewhere this year.
“Florida does not want New York here in our backyard. Florida doesn’t want California,” Askar said Monday in an interview with the conservative cable outlet Newsmax. “That’s who she is. That’s what she stands for.”
Askar also has called Dandiya part of “this DSA radical new faction of the Democrat Party,” a reference to the Democratic Socialists of America and termed her a socialist.
Categorically untrue, Dandiya says. “First and foremost, I say unequivocally I am not a socialist. I am a proud capitalist and I’m proud of the work I’ve done in the private sector,” she said in an interview with WPLG-Ch. 10. “I stand against extremism on either side of the political aisle.”
Dandiya says her focus is on issues related to the cost of living, including ending tariffs and restoring subsidies for Affordable Care Act premiums, and protecting Social Security. “Mortgages are higher than ever, gas is higher than ever. People are really nervous about how they’re going to make ends meet.”
On tariffs, Askar said in a TV interview that “I believe that the president was right to combat other nations with tariffs because other nations tariff us, the United States. But I believe that just like anything else, you have to improvise and adapt to situations and it’s a moving target.”
Trump factor
Trump is a factor in the contest, but who he helps and hurts is uncertain.
Askar is a strong Trump supporter, something he emphasized more in the leadup to the Republican primary than during the general election campaign. Early on, he praised Trump as a president who “continues to move America forward on the road to prosperity.”
In a social media post Monday, Trump wrote in an endorsement that Askar “has a Proven Record of Success — He is a WINNER! His opponent, Pia Dandiya, is a Radical Left Democrat.”
No Going Back, a super PAC associated with Trump, has spent heavily — at least $9 million — according to reports, against Dandiya.
Asked by a Newsmax host to lay out the biggest difference he has with Dandiya, Askar said: “They don’t really have any real substance that they’re running on. There’s no real policy. It’s just hating on the president, hell bent to impeach the president, and take over the House and Senate.”
Dandiya and her supporters are hoping Askar’s support for and from Trump hurts his candidacy.
One ad from outside groups supporting Dandiya tells voters that “Casey Askar Puts Trump First. Pia Dandiya Puts Us First.”
Dandiya is also trying to appeal to independent voters and more moderate Republicans. “It’s the common sense issues that connect us all. Most people don’t see themselves as staunch Democrats or staunch Republicans. They see themselves as everyday Americans just trying to find their way, and they wish they had elected officials who would put their issues front and center.”
She was recently endorsed by Mayor Michael J. Napoleone, the Republican mayor of Wellington.
The tagline of her campaign, which she’s had printed on signs, is “Make Common Sense Great Again,” a play off of Trump’s longtime “Make America Great Again” slogan.
Dandiya described Askar as “a MAGA extremist,” adding that, “He’s not running to be a representative. He’s running to be a rubber stamp to the administration we see in D.C. right now, kowtowing to billionaires and building ballrooms instead of serving everyday Americans.”
Pia Dandiya, left, Democratic candidate for Congress in District 22, and Pete Buttigieg, a former transportation secretary and former (and possibly future) presidential candidate, at a campaign event at the Broward AFL-CIO headquarters in Plantation on Oct. 26. (Anthony Man/South Florida Sun Sentinel)
One of Askar’s earliest campaign promises: introduce legislation to rename Interstate 75, which spans the state from Broward County to Collier County and bears the iconic name Alligator Alley, as the “President Donald J. Trump Interstate.”
Dandiya and one of her visiting reinforcements, former U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, attempted to turn that promise against Askar. Buttigieg suggested Askar “should be less focused on renaming I-75 and more focused on making sure the people driving on it can actually afford their gas.”
Trump is still more popular in Florida than nationally, polls show, but less than he was when he won the state in 2016, 2020 and 2024. Trump disapproval is just over 50% in Florida, but that is about 10% less than his national disapproval average.
If Democrats (30.4% of the district’s active registered voters) are fired up to send a message of opposition and Republicans are dispirited and some don’t vote, that’s good for Dandiya.
If Republicans (38.5% of the district’s active registered voters) are motivated to show support for the president, that could help Askar.
Another 31.1% are registered with no party affiliation or with minor parties.
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, left, with Casey Askar, the Republican nominee for Florida House District 22, at a campaign event at the Vicky Bakery in Sunrise on Oct. 23. (Askar campaign/courtesy)
Creating the 22nd
In the leadup to the midterm elections, which usually produce setbacks for the party that controls the White House, Trump told Republican-controlled states to change their congressional districts in ways that would elect more Republicans and fewer Democrats to Congress.
That’s how the 22nd District, an open seat with no incumbent running, came about.
In April, Gov. Ron DeSantis unveiled a new congressional district map drafted by one of his aides, instructed the Republican-controlled Legislature to pass it, and signed it into law in May. It sliced up districts and reassembled the pieces in ways seen as likely to elect four more Republicans and four fewer Democrats.
Key measures: Trump won the territory in the new 22nd District by 10.5 percentage points in 2024. Four years earlier, Democratic Joe Biden ran 2.8 points ahead of Trump. The partisan voting index from the Cook Political Report rates it as R+4, which means it performed 4 points more Republican than the nation during the last two presidential contests. Buttigieg said the district “was drawn specifically in order to give an unfair advantage to Republicans.”
Six months ago, nonpartisan ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics and Inside Elections assessed the district as leaning or tilting Republican. Since then, polling shows voters have become less happy about the direction of the country, concerned about continuing high costs for essentials such as food and fuel, exacerbated by the drawn-out war with Iran.
Over three weeks in October, all three rating organizations shifted the district, with all now calling it a toss-up.
There has been almost no public polling in the district. A survey released on Oct. 25 by A Fight Worth Having, a progressive super PAC, reported Askar and Dandiya were tied at 46%.
“This is a big, big fight,” Askar said recently. “This redistricting everybody was very excited about. But no one anticipated the political climate and this blue wave that we keep hearing about.”
“We need Republicans to get energized and come out and vote. These Democrats are serious,” Askar said, appearing on Newsmax. “They’re hell bent on winning this, as I said, and impeaching the president. It’s become a very, very dangerous party, hating on our country and our sovereignty. We’ve got to make sure that we continue what the president has been doing, securing our borders and building our economy.”
The 22th Congressional District, created in the 2026 Florida special redistricting, takes in parts of Broward, including Parkland and Weston, and Palm Beach County, including Wellington and the Glades communities, and stretches west to Marco Island and the Gulf Coast. (Florida Senate/courtesy)
The candidates
Dandiya, 39, grew up in Palm Beach County. She taught in high-poverty schools and became a principal at a school that she said prepared 100% of its students to get into college. She was later a White House fellow and an Apple executive, where her work included some lobbying.
“And all of these experiences have made me convinced that we all want the same things for our lives. We want stability for my generation, safety and dignity for my parents’ generation, and a world of opportunity for my 3-year-old son’s generation,” Dandiya said.
Askar, 57, runs the Askar Family Office, which has interests in restaurants, commercial real estate, energy and construction. He is a Marine veteran with seven children.
Askar said at a recent campaign event in Sunrise that the approach that made him successful in business — “communication, follow through, accountability and execution” — would make him a good member of Congress. “I do not mistake effort for results. You gotta get results, and I get results,” he said. “That’s all I know how to do.”
Both personally understand the realities of immigrants in America. Dandiya was born in the U.S. to parents who emigrated from India. Askar came to the U.S. as a child because his Christian family was fleeing religious persecution in Iraq.
Both candidates are wealthy, though on a different scale. The Washington Sun estimated Askar’s net worth was between $97.5 million and $480.5 million. The financial website Quiver Quantitative estimated Dandiya’s net worth at $14.1 million. The financial disclosures candidates must file list assets in broad ranges, so measures of net worth are imprecise.
Campaign reports show that as of Oct. 14, Askar had loaned $6.7 million of his own money to his campaign and Dandiya loaned her campaign $247,000.
A plurality of the district’s voters (42.4%) live in Broward, followed by Palm Beach County (27.4%), Collier County (26.2%) and Hendry County (4.0%). Neither one lives in the 22nd District. Dandiya lives in Palm Beach Gardens and Askar lives in Naples. Members of Congress aren’t required to live in the districts they represent; South Florida has a long bipartisan history of representatives living outside of their districts.
Before redistricting, Dandiya was running against U.S. Rep. Brian Mast, a Republican whose district includes northern Palm Beach, Martin and St. Lucie counties. In 2020, Askar was an unsuccessful primary candidate for Congress.
People gather to take selfies with Pete Buttigieg, a former U.S. secretary of transportation and past, and possibly future, presidential candidate, after he appeared at a campaign event for Democratic congressional candidate Pia Dandiya at the Broward AFL-CIO headquarters in Plantation on Oct. 25. (Anthony Man/South Florida Sun Sentinel)
Bring in the cavalry
Buttigieg, an unsuccessful candidate for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and possible 2028 presidential candidate, visited the district on Monday to campaign with Dandiya.
Askar had his own celebrity booster a few days before: House Speaker Mike Johnson, who stays in power only if Republicans retain a majority of House seats.
The two events, Democrats Dandiya and Buttigieg in Plantation, and Republicans Askar and Johnson in Sunrise, illustrated the campaigns’ different approaches.
About 200 people attended the Dandiya-Buttigieg event Monday afternoon at the Broward AFL-CIO headquarters. Dandiya and Buttigieg fired up an enthusiastic audience, and later answered questions from reporters.
Askar’s campaign didn’t publicly announce the Oct. 23 Johnson stop at a Vicky Bakery franchise, and didn’t invite news media attention. Pictures and videos posted on social media appeared to show some 65 to 75 people attending.
Johnson pointed to the heavy spending from groups on both sides that has fueled saturation advertising. “We have been watching this race very closely and so has everybody else around the world. I mean, there’s a lot of money being spent in Florida’s 22nd District.”
He called Askar “a great candidate” and predicted on Nov. 3 “we’re gonna be celebrating a huge victory in Florida.”
Political writer Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.