Image Credit: Ole Miss

In the midst of Rivalry Week, with conference championship games and Selection Sunday for the College Football Playoff nearing, the college football world remains focused on Lane Kiffin. The Ole Miss head coach, who is one game away from leading the Rebels to their best regular season in more than six decades, appears poised to leave the university as opportunities with the Florida Gators and LSU Tigers tempt the 50-year-old program leader.

While the national media has been projecting that Kiffin will join LSU — as talking heads (particularly those at ESPN) continuously push him to remain at Ole Miss — Florida has remained steadfastly confident in its positioning for his services, sources have affirmed to Only Gators over the last 10 days.

The Gators have put together a comprehensive package to land Kiffin that equals and, in some ways, exceeds what other programs are offering. (The numbers are approximately $95 million in salary and incentives over seven years with $25 million in guaranteed NIL support, according to multiple reports. Florida’s lack of state income tax is a benefit, but with numbers so large, it is not a factor that will turn a decision.) They also overcame some early obstacles in their pursuit, namely a minor structural disagreement in which UF relented to Kiffin’s preference.

Any suggestions that Florida has moved on from Kiffin and/or turned its focus to other candidates are simply incorrect.

With the assistance of TurnkeyZRG, the Gators have done their due diligence on nearly a dozen other coaches, as any program should, particularly one that has toggled search mode on and off since the 2024 season. However, many regularly mentioned names are not actually candidates for the Florida job, sources told Only Gators, whereas other coaches — including some entrenched in their current positions — are stronger considerations than might be imagined.

None of that should matter, though. Not if Florida gets the coach who has been the primary target of its fans and boosters for years and athletic director Scott Stricklin at least since the start of 2025. The Gators are focused on Kiffin and believe they will secure his services. The Tigers reportedly feel the same way, of course. The latter’s strength of conviction has been louder, leading it to be pushed nationally.

Kiffin and Ole Miss have stated that a decision will be announced Saturday, although it’s possible that news could leak Friday following the conclusion of the Egg Bowl. Between now and then, it’s doubtful much else will emerge. Ultimately, it is an educated decision Kiffin will make with his family, not one they are coming to on a whim, despite claims about his indecisive nature.

However, as Florida has experienced with Billy Donovan leaving for the Orlando Magic only to return to Florida and Urban Meyer retiring only to turn around and coach the Gators for another year, humans can change their minds. They can also make bad decisions.

When one breaks down the UF and LSU opportunities, it becomes clear which program fits Kiffin best should he ultimately leave Ole Miss. That does not mean it is the direction he will go, of course.

Florida

A once-embattled coach who was jettisoned from the Oakland Raiders, left Tennessee in the dark of the night and got fired on the tarmac at USC, Kiffin has been king of the turnaround at his three stops since. He brought Alabama and Nick Saban into the modern offensive era, led FAU to a pair of conference titles in three years and repositioned Ole Miss as a legitimate contender in the SEC.

That is precisely the type of turnaround the Gators need, and Kiffin knows he’s the change agent to deliver it — as Meyer and Steve Spurrier have been previously.

Kiffin’s affinity for Spurrier — he wears a visor in his honor to this day — is notable, but it’s not enough of a reason on its own for him to choose Florida over LSU. Nor is the family’s familiarity with Gainesville, son Knox being a lifelong Gators fan, ex-wife Layla Reaves being the daughter of UF QB John Reaves, or her family supposedly still living in town. (Kiffin’s time in Boca Raton and alongside his father in Tampa only adds to his lifetime of positive experiences in and outspoken appreciation for the Sunshine State.)

Individually, none of those matters that much. Together, they paint a picture of a coach and program that appear destined to fit together.

Florida’s recent struggles on the field are certainly a detriment, as is a university and athletic department that have not been models of consistency of late. However, UF is not unique in its struggles. The Gators have maintained success on the recruiting trail, and the NIL commitment delivered to Billy Napier for the 2025 season was viewed as particularly substantial for an embattled coach. Florida’s NIL and player acquisition is ready to explode if Kiffin joins the program.

The Gators have also shown incredible patience with their coaches; they have hardly operated on a hair-trigger, despite substantial turnover at the position since Meyer’s departure. And the coaches Florida has fired have all been paid their buyouts without hesitation or question.

Will Muschamp was so well-liked that he was given a fourth season despite a 4-8 campaign in 2013. Jim McElwain went off the deep end while simultaneously failing in his third season. Dan Mullen got off to a hot start — that Kiffin can easily meet or exceed — but got in his own way, refusing to fire friends/assistants and choosing not to recruit when the NFL did not come calling as he expected. Billy Napier was not only allowed to rebuild the entire program, he was brought back for Year 4 despite going 19-19 in his first three seasons, a record that heretofore would have been completely unacceptable at Florida.

In other words, the Gators have provided opportunity and exercised patience. The leaders have made wrong decisions, and unforeseen bad luck has struck the program, too, particularly at the QB position.

LSU

Most often mentioned when it comes to LSU is that it has won three national championships with three different coaches since 2001. Not mentioned is that the Tigers fired two of those men. Undercovered is that LSU has entered a legal battle with its latest coach, Brian Kelly, who was fired despite going 34-14 eight games into his fourth season.

As the lone Power Four university in Louisiana, it has long been clear that the Tigers control their state from a football perspective. Football reigns in the Bayou State, and there are no bigger movers than LSU and the New Orleans Saints. (The Gators, of course, battle with Florida State, Miami and UCF, though UF is still widely seen as the flagship program.)

LSU is a legitimate powerhouse with tradition and winning history, traits Florida shares, even if UF’s last national title came a decade prior. It has become quite obvious, of course, that the absolutely stacked 2019 LSU team was an aberration during Ed Orgeron’s tenure. Still, the Tigers have won (a lot) more recently, and they rival the Gators in key areas like fan support, finances and facilities. These are programs on the same level, despite what supporters of either want to claim.

Kiffin, however, has no history with the Tigers, and he has never expressed a particular affinity for the program itself nor Baton Rouge. Even the most ardent LSU supporter will concede an argument about the quality of life there compared to Gainesville. That’s not to mention the significant financial stress Louisiana is experiencing as a state.

While Florida and its athletic department have their own aforementioned issues, LSU has become a laughingstock over the last month. The governor, other politicians and boosters have outsized influence in the university’s affairs, particularly when it comes to athletics, and it took three separate public statements to determine who would be the next AD and whether that person was in his role permanently.

It was not only publicly stated that the Tigers were refusing to enter into another expensive coach hiring, a course on which they appear to have reversed, the university remains in active litigation with Kelly, refusing to pay his $54 million buyout. While Kelly stated he was willing to negotiate the sum after LSU fired him for performance, the program is now claiming he was fired “for cause” without providing a reason.

As famed attorney Tom Mars stated on Twitter: “Lane Kiffin is a bright guy, and one has to assume he’s not oblivious to the absurd legal tactics LSU is using to try to stiff Brian Kelly. With that in mind, unless Lane got a 30-day prescription of “stupid pills,” the odds of him going to LSU are probably zero — primarily for that reason. Against the background of recent events, it would be impossible even for Jimmy Sexton to draft a seemingly ironclad contract with any confidence LSU would actually honor it.”

Wrapping up

Florida and LSU are intriguing possibilities for Kiffin, as is remaining at Ole Miss where he has grown a program, understands the administration and has proven he can win to a level that will at least get him into the CFP. The Rebels nevertheless stand as a program at least a tier lower than the Gators and Tigers, and Kiffin appears to realize that he should be coaching at a higher level with more consistent opportunities to not only compete in the playoff but contend for national championships.

Should Kiffin ultimately leave, Florida and LSU both present that high-quality opportunity. When drilling down into the details, though, it’s tough to understand why this particular coach would choose the Tigers over the Gators in 2025.

Should he make that call — wearing purple and gold rather than orange and blue in 2026 — it would be a reckoning for Florida football and the athletic department. There are other coaches the Gators can hire, of course, but none would join the program with the same momentum as Kiffin, and few could come close to sharing his gravitas.

Of course, that’s nothing Florida needs to worry about … as long as it lands its guy.