MIAMI — With the night off, Friday will be reserved for scoreboard watching for the Miami Heat, perhaps with a calculator alongside.
Having completed their pool play in the NBA Cup in-season tournament at 3-1, the Heat now sit on the sidelines to see if they will advance to the knockout round for the first time in the event’s three years.
There are multiple ways for Erik Spoelstra’s team to advance, but none in their own hands.
The simplest math would merely be a Milwaukee Bucks victory over the New York Knicks on Friday night at Madison Square Garden. That would leave the Bucks and Heat tied atop Eastern Conference Group C, each at 3-1, with the Heat holding the tiebreaker by virtue of Wednesday night’s 106-103 victory over the Bucks at Kaseya Center.
If the Knicks, however, beat the Bucks, then the Heat and Knicks would finish tied atop Group C at 3-1, with the Knicks winning the group by virtue of their 140-132 Cup victory over the Heat on Nov. 14 in New York (the Heat defeated the Knicks in the teams’ other two meetings, but those were not Cup games).
Each of the three group winners in each conference advance to the knockout quarterfinal stage of the in-season tournament, as well as one wild-card team in each conference.
When it comes to the wild card, that’s where higher math would have to come into play for the Heat, with margin of victory a key tiebreaker.
Either way, the Heat will have two games added to their regular schedule at Friday’s conclusion of pool play, with all results in the NBA Cup also counting toward the regular-season standings, with the exception of the Cup championship game on Dec. 16 in Las Vegas.
Heat advance in NBA Cup if . . .
— The Bucks defeat the Knicks on Friday night at Madison Square Garden. This is the only scenario that allows the Heat to win their pool-play group and possibly secure a home Cup playoff game.
— The Knicks defeat the Bucks, but the Magic defeat the Pistons and the Hawks defeat the Cavaliers. In this scenario, the Heat would be the only second-place team in any of the three Eastern Conference groups with a 3-1 record in pool play.
— The Knicks defeat the Bucks, the Cavaliers lose to the Hawks, and the Pistons defeat the Magic by 12 or more points. In this scenario, the Heat and Magic each would be the only second-place teams at 3-1, with the Heat having the better margin of victory (the Heat ended pool play at +49; the Magic currently stand at +61).
— The Knicks defeat the Bucks, the Pistons lose to the Magic and the Cavaliers defeat the Hawks by no more than 16 points. In this scenario, the Heat and Cavaliers would be the only second-place teams at 3-1, with the Heat having the better margin of victory (the Heat ended pool play at +49, with the Cavaliers currently at +33).
— If there is a tie for the wild-card berth with the Magic or Cavaliers or both at 3-1 with the exact same margin of victory through the four pool-play games, then total points would be the next tiebreaker. The Heat closed with 507 points in their four games, with the Magic at 372 points in Cup play and the Cavaliers at 369. Meaning the Magic would have to score at least 135 points in their game against the Pistons, and the Cavaliers 138 in their game against the Hawks in order to move on to the next tiebreaker, better 2024-25 regular season record.
— In the unlikely case that the fourth tiebreaker comes into play, the Cavaliers finished 64-18 last season, the Magic 41-41 and the Heat 37-45.
The payoff: Players on teams advancing to the knockout round receive $53,093 each. Players appearing in the semifinals receive $106,187. Players on the losing team in the championship game receive $212,373. Players on the title team receive $530,933 apiece. Players on two-way contracts receive half those amounts.