Advantage Buccaneers: Run Defense
The Buccaneers’ defense has held eight of its 11 opponents below 100 rushing yards, most recently allowing just 70 yards to Kyren Williams and the Rams in Week 12. Williams had just 46 yards on 12 carries; Buffalo’s James Cook had 48 yards on 16 carries the week before that. Meanwhile, an early-season injury to James Conner and some other unfortunate injury luck in the Cardinals’ backfield has led to Arizona ranking 25th in rushing yards per game and 18th in yards per carry. Arizona does not have a back with at least 250 rushing yards this season, as Emari Demercado leads the group with 241 yards, though he has averaged a robust 7.8 yards per tote. In Arizona’s most recent game, Bam Knight started and had 12 yards on 10 carries while Michael Carter added 28 yards on five runs.
Advantage Cardinals: Third Downs on Offense
With Jacoby Brissett throwing 43 times per game and completing 66.8% of his passes, the Cardinals’ offense has been able to sustain drives by moving the chains on third down. Arizona has converted on 43.2% of its third-down attempts, good for fifth in the NFL. The Cardinals have been particularly effective when they can get into short third-down situations, converting 70.5% of their tries when needing three or fewer yards, which ranks second in the NFL. Tampa Bay’s defense ranks 20th in overall third-down success rate, allowing a conversion percentage of 39.9%. On third downs needing three or fewer yards, the Bucs have allowed a success rate of 60.5%, which ranks 23rd in the NFL.
X-Factor: Quarterback Mobility
The Buccaneers, of course, have a question mark at quarterback overall heading into Sunday’s game, with starter Baker Mayfield working his way through a left shoulder injury. If he is cleared to play, there will still be concerns about his mobility, or more specifically his need to avoid taking hits. Mayfield has brought an extra edge to the Bucs’ offense with his timely scrambles in 2025, as he has created a first down on 14 of the 16 times he has taken off on third downs. That’s the highest conversion rate for a quarterback in the league this season who has at least 10 runs on third down. Teddy Bridgewater, who would start if Mayfield can’t go, has had some success running the ball, with 279 yards in 15 starts with the Panthers in 2020, but he is not likely to pose the same third-down threat with his legs as Mayfield has been. Arizona started the season with one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the NFL, but Kyler Murray is currently on injured reserve and won’t be available on Sunday. His replacement, Jacoby Brissett, has run for 100 yards on 24 carries, averaging 4.2 yards per tote, and Run Game Coordinator/Outside Linebackers Coach Larry Foote called him a “sneaky scrambler.”