Here are the full betting splits and odds for Saturday’s College Football Playoff matchup between the Texas A&M Aggies and Miami FL Hurricanes.
The Texas A&M Aggies host the Miami FL Hurricanes on Saturday, December 20 at 12:00 p.m. ET. Below, our simulation breaks down the latest odds, betting splits, key stats, and the best ways to bet this matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Game Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread: Texas A&M -3 (-118) | Miami FL +3 (-102)
Moneyline: Texas A&M -155 | Miami FL +130
Total: 47.5 (Over -112 / Under -108)
Betting Splits for Texas A&M vs. Miami FL
Spread splits: 66% of bets / 33% of handle on Texas A&M -3 (Miami FL +3: 34% bets / 67% handle)
Moneyline splits: 73% of bets / 49% of handle on Texas A&M -155 (Miami FL +130: 27% bets / 51% handle)
Total splits: 69% of bets / 50% of handle on Over 47.5 (Under: 31% bets / 50% handle)
The public is riding Texas A&M and the Over, but the larger-money handle leans to Miami FL on both the spread and Moneyline, signaling a potential sharper position on the underdog.
Stats Breakdown (2025)
Texas A&M ATS (home): 5-7 ATS; average cover margin: 0.25
Miami ATS (away): 7-5 ATS; average cover margin: 4
First downs: Texas A&M 272; Miami 276
Texas A&M offense: 0.2581 PPA, 0.463 success rate, 1.247 explosiveness; passing plays 0.418 PPA (0.473 success), rushing plays 0.161 PPA (0.462 success)
Miami offense: 0.2579 PPA, 0.490 success rate, 1.142 explosiveness; passing plays 0.503 PPA (0.513 success), rushing plays 0.098 PPA (0.478 success)
Texas A&M defense: 0.1295 PPA allowed, 0.340 success rate allowed; havoc 0.215; opponents are more explosive on passing downs (2.333 explosiveness on passing downs)
Miami defense: 0.0202 PPA allowed, 0.347 success rate allowed; 2.621 points per opportunity allowed; havoc 0.201
Key Stats to Know
Both offenses are efficient on a per-play basis (Texas A&M 0.2581 PPA; Miami 0.2579 PPA), but Miami grades as the stronger passing PPA attack (0.503 passing PPA vs. Texas A&M’s 0.418).
Miami’s defensive profile is the best unit on the field by these numbers (0.0202 PPA allowed and just 2.621 points per opportunity allowed), which matters in a playoff-style, possession-by-possession game.
Texas A&M creates disruption (0.215 havoc) and is stout up front by rate metrics (0.225 stuff rate), but has shown vulnerability to chunk plays—especially on passing downs (2.333 explosiveness).
How to Bet Texas A&M vs. Miami FL
Follow the money vs. the tickets: Texas A&M is the popular side (66% ATS tickets; 73% ML tickets), but Miami FL is taking the majority of handle on both spread (67%) and Moneyline (51%), a classic “bigger bets on the dog” look.
ATS context (provided): Miami has been the better road cover team (7-5 away ATS; +4 avg cover margin) while Texas A&M’s home ATS mark (5-7) has been less reliable.
Total angle: The Over is the public play (69% of bets), but handle is split 50/50, and Miami’s defense profile suggests scoring may be tougher than the ticket count implies.
Players to Watch (Most-Bet Props)
Kevin Concepcion – First TD Scorer (+700): Listed as the first favorite for Texas A&M in the first TD market, and tagged for SGP use.
Malachi Toney – First TD Scorer (+750): The first favorite for Miami FL to score the first TD in the game; also the first favorite in the 1st Miami FL TD scorer market at +280.
Mark Fletcher Jr. – First TD Scorer (+850): Miami’s second-favorite option in the first TD market, a common way bettors target a feature back in a tight spread game.
Popular Parlays on DraftKings Sportsbook
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Prediction & Best Bets
Projected final score: Texas A&M 24, Miami FL 23
Moneyline: Texas A&M
Spread: Miami FL +3
Total: Under 47.5
After reviewing the projections and models from our simulation, the DKN team believes Miami’s defensive efficiency and the market’s larger-money lean toward Miami FL make the underdog +3 the best side. With a one-score projection and a total that requires consistent red-zone finishing, we also prefer the Under in a game that profiles as competitive and possession-driven.