Jaguars (10-4) at Broncos (12-2)

When: 2:05 p.m. Sunday

Where: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium

TV/radio: FOX, 850 AM/94.1 FM

Broncos-Jaguars series: Despite the AFC stakes riding on this one, with the Jaguars sitting at the No. 3 seed in the conference, there’s not much shared history in this matchup. Denver has never played Jacksonville in the Sean Payton era, and new Jaguars head coach Liam Coen hasn’t played at Mile High since he was a receivers coach with the Los Angeles Rams in 2018. The Broncos are 7-6 against Jacksonville all-time, with their last game a 21-17 win in October 2022.

In the spotlight: Who in this Denver secondary checks whom in the Jaguars passing game?

On Thursday, the Jaguars officially inked receiver Jakobi Meyers to a three-year, $60 million extension after just six games with the franchise, a nod to how dynamic the former Raider has been since joining Jacksonville at the trade deadline.

“He’s made a huge difference,” Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph said of Meyers Thursday. “When you watch the early part of the season without Jakobi, it’s a good offense still. But he’s added a toughness, a smarts that veteran receivers add to an offense.

“The quarterback likes going to this receiver, and that’s something that they’ve worked out fairly quickly. He’s a blocker. We faced him twice a year for three years now, and he’s always been a good player. His toughness and consistency as a player has helped this offense go to the next level.”

Meyers has 27 catches for 355 yards and three touchdowns in his six games in Jacksonville, production that makes Joseph’s life rather difficult. Sunday will no longer bring a Colorado reunion for Jaguars rookie Travis Hunter, who is on IR after a season-ending injury in November. But surging quarterback Trevor Lawrence has a wide array of weapons and no true WR1 in Jacksonville, raising a question about the matchup for Broncos’ shutdown corner Pat Surtain: Will he shadow one wideout or simply try to take away a side of the field?

The Jaguars, of course, have second-year wideout Brian Thomas Jr., who’s regressed after a Pro Bowl rookie year in 2024 but still has 601 yards in 11 games this season. There’s third-year burner Parker Washington, too, whose involvement varies week to week but has 39 catches in 13 games. Tight end Brenton Strange is authoring a quiet breakout, with 395 yards in nine games. And don’t forget about old Broncos buddy Tim Patrick, who had five catches for 78 yards and a touchdown just two weeks ago.

“To see him having the success that he’s having, man — it makes me happy, brings joy to me, because he’s a guy who deserves it,” receiver Courtland Sutton said Thursday, who played with Patrick from 2018-2023 in Denver.

“We’ve had our friendly banters already, going back and forth,” Sutton continued, smiling. “But he said he’s not talking to me for the rest of the week, until after the game. So we’ll see how that” goes.

The Broncos faced a similarly multidimensional passing game in last Sunday’s 34-26 win over the Green Bay Packers, as Surtain generally spent his time on Packers WR1 Christian Watson — and held him to one catch on three targets, including perhaps the most impressive interception of Surtain’s five-year Broncos career. Joseph could slide him around more on Jacksonville, or elect to slot him on Meyers if he believes the new addition is a true ceiling-raiser for the Jaguars’ offense.

The most interesting matchup, though, would be Thomas. The athletic Jaguars wideout has caught only two of his 16 targets this season when facing a tight window, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. Surtain just forced a tight window on all three of those Watson targets last week. And the Jaguars are 2-2, moreover, when Thomas has caught less than 50% of his targets in a game this season.

The Broncos, then, could largely turn to nickel Ja’Quan McMillian when Meyers plays from the slot. But Jacksonville is using Meyers significantly more out wide than the Raiders did in the early part of 2025, another nod in favor of a potential Surtain matchup.

In any case, the right combination will be particularly important without the presence of safety Brandon Jones (placed on injured reserve this week), who’s quietly been one of the NFL’s best safeties in coverage since joining the Broncos in 2024. And Joseph will need to plug some holes that have popped up in recent weeks against one of the hottest offenses in the NFL.

“We all have a lot of confidence in what we’re doing,” Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence said this week. “It just seems like we got the ball rolling, the last few weeks.”

Who has the edge?

When Broncos run: This is a heck of a matchup for Denver rookie RJ Harvey, who’s coming off a late rib injury against the Packers last week. Jacksonville has the top-ranked run defense in the NFL, and play heavy doses of base personnel, and allow just 3.6 yards per run play when playing in that base personnel. The Broncos haven’t been able to generate chunk plays in the run game since J.K. Dobbins went down a month ago, and have put a combined 36 carries on Harvey’s shoulders the past two weeks. He’ll need to do more Sunday. Edge: Jaguars

When Broncos pass: The Jaguars have only surrendered over 200 passing yards to any individual quarterback once in their past four matchups. That being said, here’s the quarterbacks who Jacksonville’s faced in those four matchups: Cardinals backup Jacoby Brissett, Titans rookie Cam Ward, Colts rookie backup Riley Leonard, Jets rookie backup Brady Cook. Not exactly a Murderer’s Row. Bo Nix, too, should have his full complement of weapons back this week with rookie Pat Bryant rejoining the fold. Slight edge: Broncos

When Jaguars run: Lawrence’s old Clemson teammate Travis Etienne has had arguably the best season of his career, but has slowed considerably in recent weeks, only averaging more than four yards a carry in one game since November. Jacksonville will be down rookie RB2 Bhayshul Tuten, too, who’s made an impact with six touchdowns in spot touches for Etienne this season. Denver gave up 71 yards on 12 carries to Josh Jacobs on the ground last week against the Packers, but that was Josh Jacobs. Edge: Broncos

When Jaguars pass: Trevor Lawrence is playing as well as any quarterback the past three weeks, a frightening prospect for these Broncos. Jacksonville, too, has a number of receivers that can beat any team in a variety of ways, with wideouts Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers and tight end Brenton Strange. Broncos safety Brandon Jones’ injury hurts, too, as Jones has been excellent for Denver the past two seasons in coverage. Edge: Even

Special teams: Watch out. Jacksonville’s Washington is fifth in the NFL in punt-return yardage, and has ran back two boots for touchdowns this year. Jaguars rookie kicker Cam Little is a stud, too, knocking home a 68-yard field goal earlier this season to shatter the NFL record. The Broncos have turned in a handful of standout performances here in recent weeks, but Jacksonville will test them. Slight edge: Jaguars

Coaching: This is a battle between two dark-horse Coach of the Year candidates, with Payton steering the Broncos’ culture toward the top seed in the AFC and Coen getting the most out of Jacksonville’s defense and quarterback Trevor Lawrence. As Coen said himself this week, though, Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is “one of the best out there right now,” and Coen’s still in his first year as an NFL head coach. Edge: Broncos

Tale of the tape

Broncos
Jaguars

Total offense
345.5 (11th)
335.7 (16th)

Rush offense
119.5 (17th)
120.7 (16th)

Pass offense
226.0 (11th)
215.0 (18th)

Points per game
24.4 (12th)
26.9 (8th)

Total defense
287.7 (5th)
308.5 (10th)

Run defense
90.9 (2nd)
86.3 (1st)

Pass defense
196.9 (11th)
222.2 (20th)

Points allowed
18.6 (T-3rd)
20.9 (T-10th)

By the numbers

5: Interceptions by Jaguars linebacker Devin Lloyd in coverage this season, tied with the Seahawks’ Ernest Jones for the most picks among any LBs in the NFL.

7.8: Targets per game that Jacksonville cornerback Tyson Campbell has seen since being acquired by the Jaguars from the Cleveland Browns before the trade deadline.

42.1: Jacksonville’s average yardage per game in the red zone this season, the highest mark in the NFL.

7: Number of 10-plus-yard carries the Broncos have had in the past four games, since losing J.K. Dobbins to injury.

229: Combined penalty flags the Jaguars and Broncos have accrued in 2025, the No. 1 and No. 2 teams (respectively) in the NFL in total flags drawn this season

27.6: Broncos and former Jaguars tight end Evan Engram’s average receiving yardage per game in 2025, his lowest mark since the 2021 season with the New York Giants.

X-factors

Broncos: RB Jaleel McLaughlin. Payton said point-blank this week that he wanted to get McLaughlin more carries, and the Broncos desperately need to get another running back involved to lighten the load on rookie Harvey. McLaughlin hasn’t eclipsed six carries or a 20% snap share in any game this season; that could change this Sunday.

Jaguars: NB Jourdan Lewis. Nix finished 9-of-13 for 130 yards and two touchdowns last week against the Green Bay Packers when targeting receivers in the slot, and will have Bryant back working there this week. Lewis, though, is a stingy nickel, allowing just 4.7 yards per target this season in coverage, according to Next Gen Stats.

Post predictions

Parker Gabriel, Broncos writer: Broncos 27, Jaguars 20

There have been several points during this 11-game run where it’s easy to look at the opponent and say, ‘yeah, this could be the week.’ Before it was even a streak at Philadelphia. Dallas, Houston, Kansas City, Green Bay. All but one of those — looking at you, Cowboys defense — and most of the others, too, have ended up close. Jacksonville is another contender in now a three-month End the Streak challenge. Somehow, the Jags end up like the rest.

Luca Evans, Broncos writer: Broncos 28, Jaguars 24

At this point, every single game Denver plays the rest of the season is going to be a one-score game, because that’s apparently the way that fate intended. So this is going to be a Mile High toss-up between two of the hottest teams in the league, and could come down to a head-to-head quarterback battle between Bo Nix and Trevor Lawrence. Here’s leaning Nix against the Jaguars’ pass defense.

Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 26, Jaguars 23

Are we sure the Packers will be the best team the Broncos face this season? The Jaguars are firmly in the conversation with Liam Coen’s offense running on nitromethane and a defense smothering running games. This is a chance for Bo Nix to enter the MVP race. A milepost to pass on the way to the AFC’s top seed. The difference will be homefield advantage and Sean Payton’s career dominance against first-time head coaches (30-12).

Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 27, Jaguars 26

It took a half for the Broncos’ D to touch Jordan Love. You probably can’t afford to wait that long against Trevor Lawrence — he’s 0-3 this season, and 2-11 over his NFL career, when sacked four or more times in a game. New Jags WR Jakobi Meyers has been a quiet Broncos pest, averaging seven catches for 84 yards and a score over four career games vs. Denver, but Bo Nix prevails (again).

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