{"id":100230,"date":"2025-12-30T18:09:14","date_gmt":"2025-12-30T18:09:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/100230\/"},"modified":"2025-12-30T18:09:14","modified_gmt":"2025-12-30T18:09:14","slug":"cfp-picks-miami-ohio-state-among-best-over-under-picks-for-quarterfinals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/100230\/","title":{"rendered":"CFP picks: Miami-Ohio State among best Over\/Under picks for quarterfinals"},"content":{"rendered":"

Eight teams will be trying to ring in the new year by keeping their chance at a national title alive by winning in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals. The top four seeds will be joining the fight, with No. 2 Ohio State<\/a> facing No. 10 Miami<\/a> on New Year’s Eve at 7:30 p.m ET. On New Year’s Day, top seed\u00a0Indiana<\/a> takes on No. 9 Alabama<\/a> (4 p.m. ET), No. 4 Texas Tech<\/a> faces No. 5\u00a0Oregon<\/a> (Noon ET) and SEC rivals meet when No. 6 Ole Miss<\/a>\u00a0battles No. 3 Georgia<\/a> (8 p.m. ET).<\/p>\n

Texas Tech is the only higher seed that comes into the CFP quarterfinals as an underdog, with Oregon listed as\u00a0a 2.5-point favorite against the Red Raiders<\/a>. Ohio State is a 9.5-point favorite<\/a> against Miami, Indiana is favored by 7<\/a>\u00a0against the Crimson Tide and Georgia is a 6.5-point favorite<\/a> vs. Ole Miss. The SportsLine Projection Model<\/a>\u00a0has broken down every College Football Playoff quarterfinal, and here’s a look at which side of the point totals the model likes for the CFP matchups.<\/p>\n

SportsLine model picks for CFP quarterfinalsNo. 10 Miami vs. No. 2 Ohio State<\/p>\n

Wednesday: Cotton Bowl; Arlington, Texas; 7:30 p.m., ESPN<\/p>\n

These are two of the nation’s best defensive teams, and Miami just won a 10-3 slugfest with Texas A&M<\/a> in the first round. But the model has the Over hitting in 64% of its simulations<\/a>, with the pick earning a “B” grade. The Buckeyes are easily first in FBS in total defense (213.5 yards per game) and scoring (8.1). The Hurricanes are 10th in yards allowed (281.5) and fourth in points (13.0). But these teams can play some offense, too, with the Buckeyes scoring 34.9 points (16th) and Miami 32.2 (28th). With playmakers like UM’s Malachi Toney<\/a> and Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith<\/a> on the field, the model sees the teams combining for nearly 50 points.<\/p>\n

No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech<\/p>\n

Thursday: Orange Bowl; Miami Gardens, Florida; Noon, ESPN<\/p>\n

Both of these offenses are in the nation’s top 10, with Texas Tech second in scoring (42.5 points per game) and both averaging well over 450 yards per game. The Ducks have scored at least 42 in three of their past four, and quarterback Dante Moore<\/a> threw for at least 350 yards in all of them. They allowed an average of 25 points in those games. Moore could find success with TTU’s defense clearly better against the run, while the Oregon defense’s strength is against pass. Tech running backs Cameron Dickey<\/a> and J’Koby Williams<\/a> have combined for 2,469 total yards and 24 TDs. The model has the Over hitting in 59% of simulations<\/a>, with its projected score just shy of 60.\u00a0<\/p>\n

No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana<\/p>\n

Thursday: Rose Bowl; Pasadena, California; 4 p.m., ESPN<\/p>\n

These two have strong defenses but they also have two of the top quarterbacks, with Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza<\/a> facing off against Bama’s Ty Simpson<\/a>. Mendoza has proven himself a winner and is second in the nation with 33 touchdown passes. Simpson is fifth in FBS with 3,500 passing yards and has 28 TD passes and five interceptions. Both defenses are a little vulnerable in spots, with the Tide only posting 30 sacks in 14 games, compared to 39 for IU in 13. Indiana’s strength is up front, so Simpson could have some success. The model’s simulations have the Over hitting 53% of the time<\/a>, with the projected score coming in over 50 combined points.<\/p>\n

No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia<\/p>\n

Thursday: Sugar Bowl; New Orleans; 8 p.m., ESPN<\/p>\n

Georgia is another defense that is strong up front, and it ranks 47th in the nation against the pass. Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss<\/a> threw for 263 yards and ran for 42 and two TDs in the first meeting between these teams, when they combined for 78 points. Chambliss has at least 280 passing yards in four consecutive games. UGA’s Gunner Stockton<\/a> threw for 289 and four TDs in the 43-35 comeback victory, and the Bulldogs rushed for 221 yards. Stockton is one of four Bulldogs with at least 400 rushing yards and six TDs, and Nate Frazier<\/a> and Chauncey Bowens<\/a> both average more than 5 yards per carry. The model sees value on the Over side here as it hits 48% of the time<\/a>, and the projected score is 57.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Eight teams will be trying to ring in the new year by keeping their chance at a national…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":100231,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[2531,52586,4640,52590,11427,4634,8466,52582,52585,11313,52584,52583,21731,10241,143,49117,11450,4669,19500,6795,52591,35316,4658,123,4641,125,124,52555,52589,4684,52587,10481,6762,10253,52588,2526,31227,9573],"class_list":["post-100230","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-miami","tag-alabama-crimson-tide","tag-alabama-indiana-picks","tag-betting","tag-cameron-dickey","tag-cfb-best-bets","tag-cfb-odds","tag-cfb-predictions","tag-cfb-spread-picks","tag-cfp-best-bets","tag-cfp-odds","tag-cfp-over-under-picks","tag-cfp-totals-picks","tag-chauncey-bowens","tag-college-football-playoff","tag-college-football","tag-dante-moore","tag-fernando-mendoza","tag-georgia-bulldogs","tag-gunner-stockton","tag-indiana-hoosiers","tag-jkoby-williams","tag-jeremiah-smith","tag-malachi-toney","tag-miami","tag-miami-fla-hurricanes","tag-miami-headlines","tag-miami-news","tag-miami-ohio-state-picks","tag-nate-frazier","tag-ohio-state-buckeyes","tag-ole-miss-georgia-picks","tag-ole-miss-rebels","tag-oregon-ducks","tag-texas-am-aggies","tag-texas-tech-oregon-picks","tag-texas-tech-red-raiders","tag-trinidad-chambliss","tag-ty-simpson"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100230","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=100230"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100230\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/100231"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=100230"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=100230"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=100230"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}