The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday afternoon, and it\u2019s the second time in head coach Sean McDermott\u2019s tenure that a six-seeded Buffalo club will travel to a three-seeded Jacksonville team. In the first meeting, Jacksonville won a barn-burner, outlasting the Bills in a 10-3 contest that led many of my friends to text me things like, \u201cThis game has set the NFL back 100 years.\u201d<\/p>\n
At the time, I was just excited that the Bills were in the playoffs. After all, the Bills broke a 17-season playoff drought the week prior, and that playoff game against Jacksonville felt like a win-win regardless of the outcome. This time, though, it\u2019s different. The 2025 Bills didn\u2019t sneak into the playoffs thanks to another painful Baltimore Ravens collapse. They\u2019re a 12-win unit that will play in its seventh straight postseason.<\/p>\n
The Jaguars aren\u2019t that 2017 club, either. Blake Bortles might have nearly taken that team to the Super Bowl, but he can\u2019t hold a candle to the Jags\u2019 current signal caller. The 2017 offense was led by some familiar curmudgeons, as head coach Doug Marrone and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett moved from Orchard Park, NY, to Duval County, FL, to handle the play-calling duties. Jacksonville\u2019s current head coach, first-year man Liam Cohen, is a prime Coach of the Year candidate, as he turned the Jaguars from a four-win team into a 13-win AFC South champion in just one season.<\/p>\n
If the Bills are going to win their first road playoff game since the 1992 AFC Championship Game, they\u2019ll need to key in on some of Jacksonville\u2019s top players. It\u2019s a very talented roster, so narrowing it to just five players is no easy task. Please tell us who your top Jaguars to watch are in the comments below.<\/p>\n
As for us, here are five Jaguars to watch on Sunday against the Bills.
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The Clemson product had perhaps his finest professional season, and over the last two months, Lawrence has played as well as he ever has professionally. During Jacksonville\u2019s current eight-game win streak, Lawrence has completed 62.7% of his passes for 2,009 yards, 19 touchdowns, and five interceptions. His quarterback rating is 106.1 over that span, and he\u2019s even rushed for 187 yards and five touchdowns.<\/p>\n
Lawrence is a great pocket passer, but he has plenty of escapability to make throws on the run. He can beat teams with his legs, as well, if defenses aren\u2019t careful to prevent it from happening. Buffalo loves to use simulated pressures and stunts to create chaos up front, but maintaining rush lane integrity is essential to success with that kind of plan. If they don\u2019t, Lawrence will torch them with his legs.<\/p>\n
The Bills have had success using a mirror\/fire\/spy player in situations like this during the season, and I anticipate that\u2019s the route they\u2019ll take again. That mirror player is usually Matt Milano, but the Bills do a nice job disguising who it will be in critical situations.<\/p>\n
Head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich have to continue doing what they do best, which is disguising coverage in order to make Lawrence doubt himself just long enough to hold the ball. If they can make Lawrence doubt what he sees, they\u2019ll have a good chance at slowing down a red-hot Jaguars offense. It\u2019s a tall ask, but it\u2019s their best bet.<\/p>\n
Jacksonville\u2019s top running back is a phenomenal player. He totaled 1,107 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, adding 36 receptions for 292 receiving yards and six more scores through the air. His 30-touch, 184-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Bills in London in 2023 remains burned in my brain as an example of the kind of problems Etienne can cause.<\/p>\n
And yet, when looking at his usage this season, Etienne\u2019s efficiency numbers somehow ended up below-average. His success rate this season was just 46.9%, which was 50th out of 62 qualifying running backs. For comparison, James Cook\u2019s efficiency rate was 12th at 56.6%. Both Trevor Lawrence (57.3%; 9th) and Josh Allen (58%, T-5th) ended up in the top 10.<\/p>\n
Rushing success rate is defined as a run that gains at least 40% of the necessary yardage for a first down on first down, 60% of that necessary yardage on second down, and 100% of that necessary yardage on third and fourth down. While much of the focus will be on the quarterback matchup, the more important matchup might end up being the run defenses vs. the opposing running games. Buffalo\u2019s run offense is the most efficient in the playoff field. Jacksonville\u2019s run defense is the best in the NFL. Buffalo\u2019s run defense has been a sieve at times this year. Jacksonville\u2019s run offense is one of the least efficient in the league, as their 4 yards per carry average ranks just 27th overall.<\/p>\n
If the Bills allow Etienne to rip off big chunks of yardage, it\u2019s going to make the Jaguars\u2019 passing game that much better. They need to do what head coach Sean McDermott always preaches and make the Jaguars one-dimensional. Keeping a lid on Etienne as runner and a receiver will go a long way towards accomplishing that. Matt Milano, Taron Johnson, Shaq Thompson, and Dorian Williams will need to step up.<\/p>\n
While trade-deadline acquisition Jakobi Meyers has (rightfully) earned plenty of praise from league sources, including Sean McDermott, for his play in Jacksonville, it\u2019s been Washington who has benefited tremendously from the veteran receiver\u2019s arrival.<\/p>\n
Washington averaged three catches and 37 yards per game prior to Meyers\u2019 arrival, which put him on pace for a 53\/631\/1 stat line after seven games. Since that point, Washington\u2019s play has exploded. In the final eight games of the season, he caught 33 passes for 550 yards and four touchdowns. That pace averages out to a stat line of 70\/1,169\/9 over 17 games.<\/p>\n
Washington does much of his damage out of the slot, which means that Christian Benford is unlikely to match up with him often, if at all, on Sunday. That puts Taron Johnson, Cam Lewis, and Buffalo\u2019s safeties \u2014 Cole Bishop and Jordan Poyer \u2014 as the likely secondary players dealing with Washington.<\/p>\n
The Bills mix their coverages well, and they do a lot of things to try to disrupt timing through late rotations and half-field traps. Sometimes, though, a player just needs to win a one-on-one, and for the Bills, making sure that Parker is contained is going to help.<\/p>\n
Starting left tackle Cole Van Lanen missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday thanks to a knee injury, which puts the Jaguars\u2019 offensive line in a bit of flux. Van Lanen has earned high marks from Pro Football Focus, grading out at a 79.3 this season, good for 16th out of 89 qualifying offensive tackles.<\/p>\n
The presumed starter if he\u2019s unable to go is Walker Little, and he has not graded nearly as well. Little has a grade of just 62.7, which is 58th among offensive tackles. Whereas Van Lanen has allowed just one sack and committed four penalties, Little has allowed nine sacks and committed 10 penalties.<\/p>\n
If Van Lanen can\u2019t go, it\u2019s a huge blow to the Jaguars\u2019 offense. If he can play, the question is just how healthy is that knee. Greg Rousseau, Joey Bosa, A.J. Epenesa, and the Bills\u2019 defensive ends are going to try and find out.<\/p>\n
Jacksonville\u2019s defense is such a strong unit that it\u2019s hard to pick one player to spotlight. With apologies to middle linebacker Devin Lloyd, who is just a fantastic overall player (81 tackles, 5 interceptions, 10 quarterback hits, 6 tackles for loss, and 7 pass breakups), I\u2019m going with Johnson just because of what I expect the Bills to try and do offensively.<\/p>\n
They\u2019re going to need to take the easy money throughout the game, dinking and dunking their way down the field. However, at some point, Josh Allen is going to want to push the ball downfield. His best bet to do so given his pass-catching group is to try to hit his tight ends deep up the seam. That puts the interception in play if Allen isn\u2019t careful with the football, and Johnson has five picks already this season.<\/p>\n
Johnson\u2019s really flourished late this season, as he has interceptions in three out of Jacksonville\u2019s last four games. He\u2019s been part of a three-safety package that includes Andrew Wingard and Eric Murray \u2014 something that could come in handy against a Buffalo team certain to run plenty of plays out of 12 and 13 personnel. Whether he\u2019s manned up against one of Buffalo\u2019s tight ends or playing some sort of zone, Allen has to be aware of where the third-year ballhawk is at all times.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday afternoon, and it\u2019s the second time in head coach…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":112021,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[33653,56951,56952,116,118,117],"class_list":["post-112020","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-jacksonville","tag-buffalo-bills-analysis","tag-buffalo-bills-opinion","tag-buffalo-bills-playoffs","tag-jacksonville","tag-jacksonville-headlines","tag-jacksonville-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112020","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=112020"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112020\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/112021"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=112020"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=112020"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=112020"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}