{"id":112900,"date":"2026-01-10T08:37:16","date_gmt":"2026-01-10T08:37:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/112900\/"},"modified":"2026-01-10T08:37:16","modified_gmt":"2026-01-10T08:37:16","slug":"bills-might-struggle-to-win-turnover-battle-vs-jaguars","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/112900\/","title":{"rendered":"Bills might struggle to win turnover battle vs. Jaguars"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">The Buffalo Bills are currently +1 in the turnover margin for the 2025 NFL season, which isn\u2019t bad by any means \u2014 but it is a far cry from their usual positive margin under head coach Sean McDermott. When it comes to giveaways, Buffalo is pretty average, tied with the Tennessee Titans at 15th most. While the Bills aren\u2019t giving the ball away like candy, their five losses account for 12 of their total 19 giveaways.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">The Jacksonville Jaguars are taking away the ball more this season than anyone but the Chicago Bears. They\u2019ve racked up a healthy nine fumble recoveries and an incredible 22 interceptions. Even adjusted with rate data, the Jaguars are the fourth-best team in the league when it comes to interceptions. Let\u2019s take a look at some of those turnovers to see if Buffalo has a chance of avoiding catastrophe.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Yeah, I get it. Football fans don\u2019t care so much about these sections, but for transparency here\u2019s what I did. I looked at All-22 film on all 22 of the Jaguars\u2019 interceptions. I made a chart of common factors that might influence an interception. The full chart of my notes is below.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">In some way, there will always be subjectivity. For instance, in interception number six I credit the quarterback as partially to blame, as the ball was thrown behind the receiver. Why did I say this?<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"_1eezmj01\" href=\"https:\/\/platform.buffalorumblings.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/51\/2026\/01\/Jaguars-Int.-no-6-behind.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;crop=0,0,100,100\" data-pswp-height=\"494\" data-pswp-width=\"639\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\"><img alt=\"\" data-chromatic=\"ignore\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"fill\" class=\"w91vxg0\" style=\"position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent;background-size:cover;background-position:50% 50%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-image:url(&quot;data:image\/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg' %3E%3Cfilter id='b' color-interpolation-filters='sRGB'%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3CfeColorMatrix values='1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 100 -1' result='s'\/%3E%3CfeFlood x='0' y='0' width='100%25' height='100%25'\/%3E%3CfeComposite operator='out' in='s'\/%3E%3CfeComposite in2='SourceGraphic'\/%3E%3CfeGaussianBlur stdDeviation='20'\/%3E%3C\/filter%3E%3Cimage width='100%25' height='100%25' x='0' y='0' preserveAspectRatio='none' style='filter: url(%23b);' href='data:image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mN8+R8AAtcB6oaHtZcAAAAASUVORK5CYII='\/%3E%3C\/svg%3E&quot;)\"   src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Jaguars-Int.-no-6-behind.png\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">It\u2019s easier to see the trajectory with a video, but none of the angles captured that perfectly anyway, which is why I used this interception as my illustration of the point. With no perfect angle at where the ball was heading, I based my judgement in part by body mechanics. The receiver was turning their body backward in anticipation of the ball, which is a good indicator they saw it and it was going to be behind.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Last thought on methodology here is that in no way is the list intended to state the Jaguars have just been lucky. In this particular play, while the throw was behind, the defense had it read well enough where even an on-target pass might have had the same result.<\/p>\n<p>Interception 5 &#8211; Devin Lloyd<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">I think this is almost 100% credit to linebacker Devin Lloyd here. He was spying the quarterback but even still I don\u2019t think in most circumstances it\u2019s a crazy idea to throw this ball. The pass seemed to be on target as well and would have been a highlight-reel play for the offense threading through a tight window. Lloyd\u2019s spying ability got him moving very soon after the throw had been decided, and that\u2019s a fantastic leap and extension to pluck the ball out of the air.<\/p>\n<p>Interception 10 &#8211; Devin Lloyd again<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Lloyd tied for the team lead this season with five interceptions, and he generally seems to create havoc in the middle of the field. You\u2019ll see I compared this to another one from Lloyd. Often tasked with keeping an eye in that zone, Lloyd was quick to respond to what he saw to get into position to take the ball away.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">One of my primary conclusions from this review was that I hope Josh Allen and Joe Brady are making a plan to account for Lloyd.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Overall, I think the Jaguars\u2019 defense deserves a ton of credit. That said, sometimes the quarterback has most of the control over the result. Like this play. Is it a throwaway that wasn\u2019t actually thrown away? Is it a whole lot of faith that the receiver will speed up and fight for this ball in near-miraculous fashion? Darned if I know. Regardless of the thought process though, this was a bad throw.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">I have this play highlighted because I want to reinforce that Josh Allen will be able to influence the outcome with sound decisions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">There\u2019s no reason to discredit the Jaguars for their ability to take the ball away. Several interceptions looked like they did enough film study to see the play before it happens, which would fall on coaching. There was a lot of good reaction time and solid play on film. The defense knew their roles in the zones and executed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Bills fans will recognize a lot of the plays, because we\u2019ve seen the same coaching to take the ball away in the Sean McDermott era.<\/p>\n<p>Interception #PressureCredit to defenseTipped by DTipped by OBad throwNotes1x2xx3xoverthrowPressure at end of play4xxGreat play by entirety of defense. Tight coverage5xIncredible concentration, reach and grab by Lloyd6xBehindDefender still might have had it if thrown well. Would have been harder adjustment7xxArm hit while throwing and turned into duck8xBobbled and dropped by receiver9xLloyd looks for man coming into zone and starts moving to cover before Purdy throws. Not credited as a bad throw, but bad decision by Purdy and good coverage by Lloyd10xSimilar to above but compressed at goal line. Mahomes made a faster decision, and Lloyd a little harder to diagnose as he feigned blitz and was closer to pile11xA little lateDecent pass rush but didn\u2019t impact QB. Throw a bit late for a timing play12xLooks like good film study. Defender broke on the ball immediately like they recognized the play. Beat receiver to the ball13overthrow14xDevin Lloyd faked blitz, shaded back and reacted very quickly to ball in air15xTight coverage, fought for ball and won16Low, inside, terrible passReceiver at sideline and pass nowhere near him. Defensive back almost lucky they weren\u2019t in better coverage17xThrowing away? Weird lob to no oneHard to see a worse pass than this. Pressure there, but not a major factor. QB lobbed ball up with no clear target. Trying to throw it away maybe but why in bounds? Hoping receiver would just\u2026 figure it out?18xOverthrowBad throw, but defender did good job coming to it19xXCoverage is great, but mostly on QB. Stared at receiver whole time and threw it despite defense being right there. Terrible decision20xJust a great read by defender. Broke on the route and snatched it away21xHail Mary jump ball and defense came down with it. Credit for effective pass rush22xxPass impacted by pressure (short throwing motion after stepping up from pressure) but horrible pass<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Buffalo Bills are currently +1 in the turnover margin for the 2025 NFL season, which isn\u2019t bad&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":112901,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[33653,56952,116,118,117],"class_list":["post-112900","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-jacksonville","tag-buffalo-bills-analysis","tag-buffalo-bills-playoffs","tag-jacksonville","tag-jacksonville-headlines","tag-jacksonville-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112900","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=112900"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112900\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/112901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=112900"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=112900"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=112900"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}