Lions Week 7 Preview: Breaking down Bucs\u2019 offensive and defensive schemes<\/a>.<\/p>\nKey 1: Man up and squeeze the MVP<\/p>\n
\u201cThey\u2019re playing hot football, it\u2019s a very good team\u201d Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell said. \u201cBaker is \u2013 you guys know I\u2019ve got a lot of respect for (Bucs QB) Baker Mayfield. The way he plays, his leadership, his ability to push the ball down the field, make plays with his legs. I just think he\u2019s playing at a high level. So, he\u2019s a guy that gives them a chance anytime they\u2019re in a game.\u201d<\/p>\n
Mayfield has been sensational in 2025 and is currently the frontrunner in the MVP conversation.<\/p>\n
Entering his third season with the Bucs, Mayfield is working with his third different offensive coordinator, after Liam Coen accepted the Jaguars head coaching position and passing game coordinator Josh Grizzard was promoted. Grizzard retained many of the concepts Coen (and Dave Canales, Panthers HC) installed, but has incorporated additional wrinkles that better suit Mayfield\u2019s style of play. Not only does Mayfield have more control over the offense under Grizzard, but the new OC has also unlocked the vertical passing game, allowing Mayfield to thrive.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s an excerpt from Next Gen stats on Mayfield\u2019s success with the deep ball:<\/p>\n
\u201cBaker Mayfield has attempted a downfield pass (10+ air yards) on 37.4% of passing attempts this season, the 2nd-highest rate of any quarterback. On these downfield passes, Mayfield has completed 45.2%, a mark below league average (48.2%). However, he leads the league in downfield attempts (73), resulting in 33 completions for 845 yards (3rd-most), and 9 touchdowns (1st). His 7 deep touchdown passes (20+ air yards) are 4 more than any other quarterback this season.\u201d<\/p>\n
Mayfield currently has the sixth-best passer rating in the NFL (108.5), and sixth-best EPA per dropback (0.23 points per passing play), and is the No. 1 quarterback in the NFL in EPA per dropback against zone coverage (0.41). For reference, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is No. 2 behind Mayfield, and we saw him take advantage of the Lions\u2019 zone coverage schemes in Week 6.<\/p>\n
With the Bucs\u2019 vertical passing game clicking, teams have used zone to try and take away explosive plays, but Mayfield has done a terrific job of manipulating safeties and taking advantage of vacated zones of coverage. His ability to identify pre- and post-snap advantages, combined with quick decision-making and the ability to keep plays alive with his feet, has forced defenses to shift towards a zone defense to account for his traits.<\/p>\n
If there is an area where Mayfield is less effective, it\u2019s against man coverage: 0.05 EPA per dropback (22nd). The Lions utilize man coverage at a very high rate (fifth most in the NFL), which could set up a way for Detroit to slow down the Bucs\u2019 efficiency. Here\u2019s more from Next Gen:<\/p>\n
\u201cThis season, the Lions defense has used man coverage on 39.3% of dropbacks, the 5th-highest rate of any defense. When using man coverage, the Lions fare slightly above league average in yards per attempt (6.8) and have allowed the 2nd-most touchdowns (9). Baker Mayfield has completed 52.3% of passes against man coverage, averaging 4.9 yards per attempt (8th-fewest).\u201d<\/p>\n
When teams utilize man coverage, it slows down the unfolding of the play and puts extra pressure on the Bucs\u2019 offensive line (who have had to replace two starters) to hold up. As a result, Mayfield has been forced to scramble on 21.2% of his dropbacks vs. man coverage. While Mayfield has produced 79 rushing yards and 35 passing yards on scrambles vs. man coverage this season (second most in the NFL), the Lions\u2019 defensive line has done a nice job of playing contain against mobile quarterbacks this season, holding Mahomes to 32 rushing yards last week and Lamar Jackson to 35 rushing yards in Week 3.<\/p>\n
Against elite QBs like Mahomes and Jackson, we\u2019ve seen the Lions run a contain and squeeze concept upfront with man coverage behind them a few times this season. With the way Mayfield is playing and the ways in which he is finding success, they\u2019ll likely take this approach again.<\/p>\n
Key 2: Keep Hutchinson over RT<\/p>\n
Aidan Hutchinson opened the 2025 season with just two pressures against the Packers, but since then, he\u2019s been on fire, accounting for 34 pressures (per PFF, 30 per Next Gen), six sacks, and four forced fumbles over the previous five games. PFF currently grades Hutchinson as the best pass rusher in the NFL<\/a> and he leads the league in pressures per their metric\u2014second in pressures per NextGenStats\u2014with a pass-rush win rate of 25.4% (fourth).<\/p>\nFor the defensive concept laid out in \u201cKey 1\u201d to work, the Lions will need to find ways to create pressure on Mayfield, while also playing contain. Entering this game, they\u2019ve been able to convert their pressures into sacks 22.6% of the time (second best in the NFL per Next Gen), giving them the sack rate of 8.5% (fourth). In order for the Lions to keep this production up, they\u2019ll need to take advantage of the injuries along the Bucs\u2019 offensive line.<\/p>\n
The Bucs have been juggling their offensive line all season, while several players work through injuries. All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs missed the first three games of the season but has returned to block Mayfield\u2019s blind side. While starting right guard, Cody Mauch, and right tackle, Luke Goedeke, are on injured reserve, resulting in additional shuffling of roles. At guard, the Bucs have leaned on Luke Haggard (currently injured), Elijah Klein, and practice squader Mike Jordan (recovering from injury). At right tackle, the Bucs have turned to Charlie Heck, who has allowed 23 pressures through four and a half games played, the second-highest amount amongst all NFL offensive linemen this season.<\/p>\n
The Lions typically split Hutchinson\u2019s snaps between the left (48.4%) and right (50.9%) sides of the formations, but there is a clear advantage to lining him up over right tackle in this matchup. The Lions don\u2019t typically deviate too far from their week-to-week deployment of Hutchinson, but it\u2019s worth considering keeping him lined up across from Heck in this game when you consider the fact that he is allowing a pressure rate of 13.6%, while Wirfs\u2019 pressure rate is just 4.5%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Detroit Lions (4-2) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1) will square off in a Week 7 \u201cMonday Night…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":13675,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[6508,6509,135,137,136],"class_list":["post-13674","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-tampa","tag-detroit-lions-analysis","tag-detroit-lions-game-preview","tag-tampa","tag-tampa-headlines","tag-tampa-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13674","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13674"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13674\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13675"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13674"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13674"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13674"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}