{"id":143479,"date":"2026-02-04T15:50:25","date_gmt":"2026-02-04T15:50:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/143479\/"},"modified":"2026-02-04T15:50:25","modified_gmt":"2026-02-04T15:50:25","slug":"can-unbeaten-miami-ohio-make-the-ncaa-tournament-if-it-doesnt-win-the-mac-tournament","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/143479\/","title":{"rendered":"Can unbeaten Miami (Ohio) make the NCAA Tournament if it doesn’t win the MAC Tournament?"},"content":{"rendered":"

If Miami (Ohio)<\/a> continues stacking victories but fails to win the MAC Tournament next month, it will arrive at Selection Sunday with one of the most vexing resumes in modern NCAA Tournament history.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Without a single Quad 1 result on their resume, the No. 23 Redhawks have the potential to be a 30-win team that gets left out of the Big Dance, creating a precedent that would send shockwaves through college basketball.<\/p>\n

They wouldn’t be the first mid-major program with a gaudy record to be punished for a poor strength of schedule on the sport’s annual judgment day. But they would be the most glaring example since the NCAA switched from the RPI to a NET-based sorting system for the 2018-19 season.<\/p>\n

With eight regular-season games still remaining and a lagging analytics profile, the CBS Sports Bracketology model still gives the Redhawks virtually no chance of making the field without winning the MAC Tournament.<\/p>\n

As the projected winner, they are currently listed as an automatic qualifier in the projected field of 68 from the CBS Sports Bracketology model.<\/a> Otherwise, it’s going to be tenuous if the Redhawks want to go dancing for the first time since 2007.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Miami<\/a> has not played a Quad 1 game and is just 2-0 in Quad 2 with only one more projected Quad 2 game remaining (Saturday at Marshall<\/a>). With the nation’s No. 350 NET strength of schedule, there is little meat on the bone. Tuesday’s 73-71 win at Buffalo<\/a>, which improved the Redhawks to 23-0, was tense and came down to the final possession. In the end, it was a Quad 3 victory that won’t do much to bolster Miami’s case for an at-large bid.<\/p>\n

What if Miami started 33-0, lost in the MAC Tournament title game and entered Selection Sunday at 33-1? Could it be left out of the dance? It will be a decision made by humans, who may deem excluding a team like that untenable. But based on the metrics the selection committee uses to evaluate at-large candidates, it could be justified in keeping a Redhawks team with 30+ victories out of the field.<\/p>\n

The final determination in that scenario will depend on a number of factors. One of them could be who the opponent is in a hypothetical MAC Tournament title game. If it’s Akron<\/a>, which is currently No. 50 in the NET, then it would mark Miami’s first Quad 1 game, and a loss wouldn’t be so penal. Playing any other MAC team on a neutral floor would likely constitute a Quad 3 game or worse and make a loss far more harmful.<\/p>\n

Here’s a look at the Miami (Ohio) resume.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"team
\n <\/a><\/p>\n

2026 Miami (Ohio)<\/p>\n

Regular season record: 23-0 (11-0 MAC)
NET strength of schedule: No. 350 of 365
Wins over top-100 KenPom teams: 1 (vs. Akron)<\/p>\n

Quad 1: 0-0\u00a0
Quad 2: 2-0
Quad 3: 5-0\u00a0
Quad 4: 13-0
vs. non-Division 1 teams: 3-0<\/p>\n

Teamsheet metrics
Net: 52
KPI: 52
SOR: 24
WAB: 33
BPI: 91
KenPom: 89
Torvik: 82<\/p>\n

Miami ranks squarely outside of the normal at-large range in advanced metrics that appear on its NCAA team sheet such as BPI (91st), KenPom (89th) and Torvik (82nd). While the Redhawks’ resume-oriented metrics are holding steady in at-large territory for now, they aren’t bulletproof. Across KPI, WAB and SOR, Miami’s average is 37th.\u00a0<\/p>\n

If a loss comes, it will likely be a damaging Quad 3 defeat or even a Quad 4 landmine that brings a significant hit. As a result, Miami’s path to an at-large bid is razor-thin.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Here is a look at three historical comparisons to this year’s Miami (Ohio) team that illustrate how perilous the path is to an at-large bid for mid-major teams with poor schedule strength. The first two (2004 Utah State<\/a> and 2018 St. Mary’s) failed to reach the NCAA Tournament after losing in their conference tournaments. The third example (2023 Charleston<\/a>) is arguably the closest comparison to this year’s Miami (Ohio) team that we’ve seen since the NCAA started using the NET system for the 2018-19 season.<\/p>\n

Historical NCAA Tournament snubs
\n <\/p>\n

\"team
\n <\/a><\/p>\n

2004 Utah State<\/p>\n

Regular season record: 25-2 (17-1 Big West)
Conference tournament result: Loss to No. 6 seed Cal State Northridge<\/a> in semifinals
KenPom non-conference schedule rank: No. 242 (of 326)
Wins over top-100 KenPom teams: 2 (vs. BYU<\/a>, vs. Pacific<\/a>)\u00a0
NCAA Tournament:\u00a0OUT<\/p>\n

Utah State entered the 2004 Big West Tournament with a 25-2 record and No. 22 ranking in the AP poll. The Aggies’ only regular-season losses came against Utah<\/a> and Pacific, both of whom went on to make the NCAA Tournament. But after getting a bye to the Big West Tournament semifinals, the top-seeded Aggies fell to No. 6 seed Cal State Northridge 63-62. That one-point heartbreaker to a sub .500 opponent certainly didn’t help Utah State’s case, and the Aggies were left out of the Big Dance with a 25-3 record.<\/p>\n

A lack of marquee victories was largely to blame. Utah State’s best win came at home on Dec. 23 against a BYU team that went on to reach the NCAA Tournament as a No. 12 seed. Otherwise, Utah State’s only other victory against a top-100 KenPom team came against Big West foe Pacific, as the teams split their regular-season series.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Aggies coach Stew Morrill likened Utah State’s exclusion to “being slapped in the face.” Following the snub, the Aggies promptly dropped a first-round NIT game against Hawaii<\/a> to end the season at 25-4.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"team
\n <\/a><\/p>\n

2018 Saint Mary’s<\/p>\n

Regular season record: 27-4 (16-2 WCC)
Conference Tournament result: Loss to No. 3 seed BYU in semifinals
KenPom non-conference schedule rank: No. 296 (of 351)
Wins over top-100 KenPom teams: 4 (vs. New Mexico State, at BYU, at Gonzaga<\/a>, vs. BYU)
NCAA Tournament: OUT<\/p>\n

Saint Mary’s<\/a> entered the 2018 WCC Tournament at 27-4 (16-2 WCC) with a 1-1 record against a Gonzaga team that earned a No. 4 seed in the Big Dance. Even with a victory over the Zags \u2014 and three more wins against teams that finished in the top 75 at KenPom \u2014 the Gaels missed out on the Big Dance.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Losses to Washington State<\/a> and San Francisco<\/a> were both unseemly blemishes, which dragged the Gaels down in resume-based metrics. On Selection Sunday, Saint Mary’s was strong analytically with an average ranking of 32nd across advanced metrics such as BPI, KenPom and Sagarin. But their resume-based metrics (RPI, KPI and strength of record) averaged out at 48.67.<\/p>\n

“They didn’t play a very challenging schedule, even non-conference,” 2018 selection committee chair Bruce Rasmussen said in an interview with TBS after the bracket was revealed. “We just didn’t feel like there was enough of a resume.”<\/p>\n

A NET era comparison
\n <\/p>\n

\"team
\n <\/a><\/p>\n

2023 Charleston<\/p>\n

Regular season record: 28-3 (16-2 CAA)
Conference tournament result: Beat No. 4 seed UNC Wilmington in finals
NET strength of schedule: No. 333 of 363
Wins over top-100 KenPom teams: 2 (vs. Virginia Tech<\/a>, vs. Kent State<\/a>)
NCAA Tournament: No. 12 seed (automatic bid)<\/p>\n

Charleston made the NCAA Tournament at 31-3 as an automatic qualifier for winning the CAA Tournament. But the Cougars, coached by Pat Kelsey, only received a No. 12 seed and would have been snubbed at 30-4 if they’d lost to UNC Wilmington in the CAA finals. On Selection Sunday, Charleston was ranked No. 51 in the NET and No. 73 at KenPom. The Cougars were 0-1 in Quad 1, 2-0 in Quad 2, 12-2 in Quad 3 and 16-0 in Quad 4.<\/p>\n

Because of their high volume of wins but lack of Quad 1 and 2 opportunities, the Cougars are perhaps the closest comparison to this year’s Miami (Ohio) team since the NCAA transitioned to the NET system for the 2018-19 season. The 2021 Winthrop<\/a> team \u2013 also coached by Kelsey \u2013 was 23-1 on Selection Sunday after winning the Big South Tournament and received a No. 12 seed. But that was during a COVID-impacted season which produced skewed data.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"If Miami (Ohio) continues stacking victories but fails to win the MAC Tournament next month, it will arrive…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":143480,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[3734,33131,2536,69622,8294,69617,69618,69619,69620,69623,2535,69626,6757,34170,123,4641,26238,125,124,69621,69624,36834,39193,69627,35241,10531,6755,57056,69625],"class_list":{"0":"post-143479","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-miami","8":"tag-akron-zips","9":"tag-buffalo-bulls","10":"tag-byu-cougars","11":"tag-chances-miami-of-ohio-gets-into-the-ncaa-tournament","12":"tag-college-basketball","13":"tag-college-basketball-bracketology","14":"tag-college-basketball-march-madness","15":"tag-college-basketball-miami-oh","16":"tag-college-basketball-miami-ohio","17":"tag-college-of-charleston-cougars","18":"tag-gonzaga-bulldogs","19":"tag-hawaii-warriors","20":"tag-kent-state-golden-flashes","21":"tag-marshall-thundering-herd","22":"tag-miami","23":"tag-miami-fla-hurricanes","24":"tag-miami-ohio-redhawks","25":"tag-miami-headlines","26":"tag-miami-news","27":"tag-miami-of-ohio-head-coach-travis-steele","28":"tag-northridge-matadors","29":"tag-pacific-tigers","30":"tag-saint-marys-gaels","31":"tag-san-francisco-dons","32":"tag-utah-state-aggies","33":"tag-utah-utes","34":"tag-virginia-tech-hokies","35":"tag-washington-state-cougars","36":"tag-winthrop-eagles"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/143479","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=143479"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/143479\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/143480"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=143479"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=143479"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=143479"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}