Tampa Bay\u2019s development machine is still moving; it\u2019s just not expected to print through 2026.<\/p>\n
Architects tend to feel those shifts early. They\u2019re hired long before ribbon cuttings, sometimes years before a project finishes. By the time the public sees a building, the costs behind it have already been (re)negotiated, trimmed and occasionally abandoned.<\/p>\n
The Tampa Bay chapter of the American Institute of Architects\u2019 latest Voice of Architecture survey suggests 2026 will bring continued growth in real estate development \u2013 but at a slower pace than the last two years.<\/p>\n
Fifty-five percent of the 92 architects surveyed expect demand for architectural services to increase this year. That figure was 66% in 2025 and 64% in 2024. Seventy percent rated the region\u2019s development-related economy as \u201cexcellent\u201d or \u201cgood\u201d compared to 80% the previous two years.<\/p>\n
The majority is still optimistic. It just isn\u2019t emphatic.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhile the overall outlook is positive, there was a decline in positive responses to three key economy-related questions,\u201d said Chris Kirschner, president of BDG Architects in Tampa, in a prepared statement that accompanied the survey release. \u201cThis reflects how architects feel that the area\u2019s development-related economy likely will grow more modestly in 2026.\u201d<\/p>\n
Larry Silvestri, a local real estate attorney who works on contracts, leasing, title matters and entitlements, told the Catalyst:<\/p>\n
\u201cThe expectation is that we all still be in business. There will be opportunity, but just fewer as the year progresses. Deals will still get done. Some deals will just die.\u201d<\/p>\n
Interest rates remain part of the adjustment. In the American Institute of Architects survey, 40% of architects said the higher interest rate environment has negatively impacted their business, down sharply from 79% last year.<\/p>\n
Silvestri described the shift: \u201cIn this interest rate environment \u2013 we\u2019ve gone from 4% or 5% to 7% or 8%. Now we\u2019re experiencing a \u2018reversion to the mean\u2019 and the percentage is rolling back to 6%. It would be nice to be down into the 5% range.\u201d<\/p>\n
Even as rates stabilize, projects are being reshaped. In the American Institute of Architects survey, 64% of architects said they have cut costs to compensate for higher interest rates, up from 40% last year.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe biggest trade-off is between development cost and land use cost,\u201d Silvestri said. \u201cIn \u2018value-added development\u2019 \u2013 maybe you don\u2019t get to put in the high-end Kohler system, but a cheaper one.\u201d<\/p>\n
That pressure is not coming from financing alone. Sixty-nine percent of architects expect higher overall project costs due to tariffs.<\/p>\n
\u201cHigher costs are a fact of life for owners and developers these days,\u201d said Matt Fetterhoff, a vice president with Phillips Heavy, Inc., in the survey release. \u201cIt\u2019s more important than ever for architects, planners, engineers and construction professionals to collaboratively plan projects, so everyone has clear expectations on costs.\u201d<\/p>\n
In Pinellas County, much of the opportunity lies in redevelopment, because \u201cPinellas is challenged environmentally,\u201d Fetterhoff wrote. Meaning, the dirt might be poor and cheap, but that helps keep the value of development up \u2013 \u201cIt\u2019s like a balloon. You push in somewhere, and it comes out somewhere else.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Tampa Bay\u2019s development machine is still moving; it\u2019s just not expected to print through 2026. Architects tend to…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":155727,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[135,137,136],"class_list":["post-155726","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-tampa","tag-tampa","tag-tampa-headlines","tag-tampa-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155726","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=155726"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155726\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/155727"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=155726"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=155726"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=155726"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}