The Tampa Bay region is growing, but it’s not growing more affordable. <\/p>\n
That’s according to data presented during the 2026 State of the Region community luncheon on Tuesday. <\/p>\n
The ninth annual event marked the release of two complementary economic benchmarks \u2014 the E-Insights Report<\/a> and the Regional Competitiveness Summary Report<\/a> \u2014 by the University of South Florida Muma College of Business and the Tampa Bay Partnership. <\/p>\n Together, their findings act as a scorecard for the region on issues ranging from growth and the economy to education and transportation. <\/p>\n Key findings <\/p>\n Tampa Bay, defined by researchers as an eight-county region stretching from Citrus to Sarasota counties, remained a prime destination for new residents nationally. <\/p>\n Compared to 19 other U.S. metro areas, Tampa Bay had the second-highest net migration rate, at 2.09%, behind Orlando. This is a drop in the rankings from first place in 2025, according to the Regional Competitiveness Report. <\/p>\n The Tampa Bay region also saw gains in talent acquisition, like higher-education rates and labor force participation, and civic quality indicators, which include health, safety and affordability measures. <\/p>\n “We saw modest improvements from an affordability standpoint. Affordability continues to be a challenge in the region,” Tampa Bay Partnership President and CEO Bemetra Simmons said. <\/p>\n Growing unaffordable<\/p>\n While average wages increased roughly 5% regionally and about 3% among service workers, the Tampa Bay region didn’t improve in the relative rankings. <\/p>\n The same is true for median household income, which increased to $76,741 in the Tampa Bay region, but did not improve its last-place ranking from 2025. <\/p>\n Despite these nominal gains in income, growing expenses are leaving many households worse off. <\/p>\n The 2026 E-Insights Report found that the percentage of cost-burdened renters in the region, at 57%, is among the highest in the nation. <\/p>\n “This is a red flag. Wage growth is not keeping pace with rent, threatening quality of life for our population,” USF business professor Manish Agrawal said during the Feb. 17 presentation. <\/p>\n This trend is worsened by the sharp decline in affordable housing supply, defined as units where monthly costs are below $1,500, from 79% in 2015 to about 48% in 2024. <\/p>\n Josh Wright, the vice president of labor analytics company Lightcast, said Tampa is not the first mid-size metro to experience rapid growth. <\/p>\n “If you look at where Atlanta or Charlotte was a number of years ago … [they] had to figure out what to do with more growth … And so you start to see, I think there are … always things to learn from other places,” Wright said.<\/p>\n He said there’s at least one lesson Tampa can learn: Be sure infrastructure and affordability keep pace with the new growth.<\/p>\n