\u201cIt\u2019s gonna be slow to get rid of this drought,\u201d said AccuWeather meteorologist and long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok. \u201cWe\u2019re so far behind right now \u2014 we\u2019ve been in dry conditions since the beginning of December.\u201d<\/p>\n
Rainfall since Nov. 1 is 59% below normal in parts of Broward County. Lake Okeechobee, a portion of which is in northwest Palm Beach County, is about 2 feet below normal. And the Biscayne Aquifer \u2014 which sits below parts of Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties and supplies our drinking water \u2014 is below average for this time of year.<\/p>\n
Though it\u2019s normal for winter to be dry, current conditions are unusual. According the the South Florida Water Management District<\/a>, the bulk of Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties have had only about 15% to 20% of their normal rainfall in the past 30 days.<\/p>\n Earlier this month, Palm Beach County enacted a burn ban and the water management district\u00a0issued a water shortage warning for Miami-Dade and Monroe, Collier, Glades, Highlands and Lee counties.<\/p>\n Wildfires have become a concern. There are currently 71 wildfires burning in Florida<\/a>, many of them contained. Most are in Central Florida, there are two in South Florida \u2014 both in Homestead.<\/p>\n How the drought started<\/p>\n Chris Fisher, meteorologist with the Miami office of the National Weather Service, said a dry 2025 primed South Florida for the drought we\u2019re in now. The lack of tropical systems over the summer meant less rain, and the late season La Ni\u00f1a made things drier as well.<\/p>\n \u201cWe didn\u2019t go into this current dry season with any sort of surplus (ground water) because we didn\u2019t get any significant rainfall amounts from tropical systems. Our climate depends on the second half of the rainy season. \u2026 So we were primed to go right back into drought this year.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWe are still in a La Ni\u00f1a pattern and that favors drier-than-normal and warmer-than-normal conditions,\u201d Fisher said.<\/p>\n La Ni\u00f1a pushes the jet stream farther north as it carries storms across the U.S., leaving the south relatively dry.<\/p>\n The jet stream is not lining up to deliver moisture to the southeast, Pastelok said. \u201cEverything is focused in the west and lifting out towards the great lakes and northeast, and not digging into the southeast, which is how we get our precipitation at this time of year. That pattern persists all the way through February and into the first week of March.\u201d<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Fisher said the La Ni\u00f1a is expected to shift to a neutral position by late spring or early summer. \u201cBy the peak of hurricane seasons, we may even be in a weak El Ni\u00f1o pattern,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n A neutral El Ni\u00f1o-La Ni\u00f1a pattern favors higher rainfall chances overall, said Fisher. \u201cThat timing will work pretty well with entering into the rainy season, which starts in mid-May here.\u201d<\/p>\n AccuWeather\u2019s Pastelok also said he expects precipitation to pick up again in May and June.<\/p>\n Impacts<\/p>\n \u201cDrought heading into two driest months of the year (March and April) will be an issue for South Florida \u2026 with the potential for wildfires,\u201d said Fisher.<\/p>\n Drought can be brutal for the Everglades, which has suffered over the decades as South Florida\u2019s canal system diverts fresh water from Lake Okeechobee to agricultural needs, or to the coast, where it damages estuaries.<\/p>\n A summer drought in 2015 caused areas of Florida Bay in Everglades National Park to become hypersaline.<\/p>\n When summer water temperatures soared, the hot salty water was unable to hold enough oxygen, and seagrass beds were unable to produce enough oxygen to survive. A massive seagrass die-off<\/a> occurred and algae blooms spread. Eleven years later, the bay is still recovering.<\/p>\n The Everglades Foundation\u2019s lead science officer, Steve Davis, sees reason for optimism this year, though. He said restoration efforts that improved freshwater flow into Everglades National Park and Florida Bay have made a difference.<\/p>\n \u201cSalinity in the bay is tipping upward, and we\u2019re seeing flows decline into the bay, but because we\u2019ve been able to get so much flow south over the last couple of years, it\u2019s looking OK right now. It\u2019s not as dire as it is farther upstream.\u201d<\/p>\n![\"This](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/TFL-L-SPRING-WEATHER-OUTLOOK-0220-02-01.jpg\")
This map show areas of drought across South Florida as of Feb. 17, 2026. (Courtesy, Drought.gov)<\/p>\n![\"The](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/dry-U.S.jpg\")
The northward position of the jet stream should keep the northern tier of the U.S. wet for the next three months and the South dry. (Courtesy NWS)<\/p>\n