A little more than three years ago, a Democrat, former Florida House Minority Leader Janet Cruz, served this district, which encompasses much of Hillsborough west of Interstate 275, including South Tampa, Town \u2018N Country, Lutz and Carrollwood.<\/p>\n
Collins snatched the seat from Cruz, a two-term incumbent, by almost 10 points in 2022. Then, Democrats had a registration advantage of more than 3,000 in the district. Two years later, there were about 14,000 more Republicans than Democrats.<\/p>\n
Both Josie Tomkow, a Republican state representative, and Democratic union leader Brian Nathan think they can win the special election to replace Collins.<\/p>\n
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Tomkow has built a financial arsenal as a sitting member of the Florida Legislature. Last year, she had more than $3.3 million in one political committee she leads, Florida Farmers and Ranchers United, along with more than $500,000 between her candidate account and another committee in her name.<\/p>\n
Nathan had less than $30,000 cash on hand by the end of 2025, when the race was just ramping up<\/a>. Updated numbers are expected to be released later this week.<\/p>\n That fundraising gap is why political pollster and commentator Barry Edwards thinks Nathan may disappoint next month.<\/p>\n \u201cRepublicans are probably going to outspend Nathan 30-to-1,\u201d Edwards said. \u201cIf (Democrats) thought they could take the seat, money would be pouring in. It\u2019s not.\u201d<\/p>\n Nikki Fried, chairperson of the Florida Democratic Party, pointed to Democrats in other states who have flipped seats while being outraised as evidence that Nathan can win.<\/p>\n \u201cThe people are waking up to understand that the Republicans do have unlimited resources, but they want individuals who are just genuine,\u201d she said. \u201cThat\u2019s why, regardless of the war chest, regardless of the financials, Democrats are still prevailing.\u201d<\/p>\n Nathan, a leader in the local chapter of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, has never held public office before. He\u2019s lived in Tampa Bay since 2008 and says he\u2019s as tired as voters are of the ballooning cost of living.<\/p>\n \u201cThe basic things that are necessities in your everyday life have become, or are becoming, unaffordable for a lot of people, and that\u2019s their major concern,\u201d Nathan said in an interview. \u201cAnd people are just tired of getting distracted with whatever the culture war issue of the day is.\u201d<\/p>\n Nathan said his top three focuses are supporting public education, tackling affordability and respecting dignity at work. In Tallahassee, Nathan wants to advocate for workers\u2019 unions, which are weakened by Florida\u2019s right-to-work laws, he said.<\/p>\n Nathan said he\u2019s hopeful that a grassroots campaign and Democrats\u2019 national momentum will boost his prospects.<\/p>\n \u201cI always knew I was going to be outraised … but they\u2019re not going to outwork me,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n In 2018, at age 22, Tomkow was elected to represent Polk County in the Florida House. She is the chair of the Health and Human Services Committee. In an interview, she emphasized her efforts in the Legislature to bring more dollars to Hillsborough County\u2019s flood mitigation infrastructure and create a financial literacy course for students.<\/p>\n Tomkow said she wants to focus on property tax relief, a key initiative<\/a> of DeSantis, and driving down property and car insurance rates. She\u2019s snagged the endorsement of several elected Republicans in Hillsborough, including U.S. Rep. Laurel Lee and Sheriff Chad Chronister.<\/p>\n Though she\u2019s spent the last eight years in Polk County, Tomkow said her roots in Hillsborough run deep. She was born in the district, and her husband, Thomas Piccolo, lives in Tampa.<\/p>\n The Nathan campaign has called into question whether Tomkow still lives at her Polk City address when her husband resides in Tampa. Tomkow said she\u2019s living at her family\u2019s ranch house in Polk City, within the state House district she serves, and plans to move to Tampa if elected to the state Senate.<\/p>\n Despite the string of Democratic victories lately, Tomkow said she\u2019s feeling \u201cat peace.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cI am confident that when individuals in Hillsborough County get out to vote, they will have heard from me, because I will tirelessly work to make sure I return every phone call, every email, every text message and knock every door,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n Democrats swung the needle back their way by more than 30 points in Louisiana<\/a> and Texas<\/a>, even as they were outspent 3-to-1 and more than 10-to-1, respectively. They were less successful in the battle for a deep-red Georgia state Senate seat on Tuesday, where the Democratic candidate lost after only moving the needle by about five points<\/a> compared to 2022.<\/p>\n Democrats may have national momentum, Edwards said. But in Florida, Republicans\u2019 voter registration advantage keeps growing.<\/p>\n As of Jan. 31, Republicans had gained some 14,000 active registered Florida voters compared to 2025. Democrats had lost 300.<\/p>\n