There were two successful offside challenges by the Leafs<\/a>, who went on three 2-on-1s (Maccelli and Nylander, Lorentz and Laughton x2) and didn\u2019t get a shot on goal, on top of an additional chance in alone for William Nylander, an OEL post where he beat Andrei Vasilevsky 1v1, and a few other quality looks. At the other end, Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point easily could\u2019ve left the opening 20 minutes with three-point periods apiece, but they couldn\u2019t get it to go in the net or stay onside when it did.<\/p>\n The third period, particularly the ending of it, was completely bizarre, between Jake Guentzel skating in a free-and-clear empty-netter only to bang it off the post, before John Tavares buried at the other end seconds later, and Matthew Knies later floating what was basically a dump-in on net through an unscreened Vasilevskiy\u2019s five hole from just inside the blue line. In between those Leaf goals, Toronto gave up a pathetic 4-1 goal mere seconds after Tavares made it 3-1.<\/p>\n While the Leafs<\/a> can rue missed chances in the first period and wonder if this game might\u2019ve turned out differently, in between those strange first and third-period events, the second\/long-change period was simply owned by the better team. Tampa ran up a 16-4 shot-attempt advantage to start the period at five-on-five and scored twice, which ultimately swung the game in the Lightning\u2019s favour. The especially annoying part from the Leafs<\/a>\u2018 perspective was that one of the second-period goals \u2014 the 2-0 \u2014 was a freebie, a breakaway for Gage Goncalves when OEL was gapped up\/engaged with Goncalve, expecting proper support from a tracking John Tavares and Jake McCabe.<\/p>\n Craig Berube previously spoke about team defense as the number-one area for improvement coming out of the break. The team proceeded to give up the second-highest high-danger chances per five-on-five minute of any game this season (21.2\/60, per NST), less than only the no-show, 6-1 blowout in Utah. They conceded four five-on-five goals plus one that was disallowed, and that came despite a good performance from Anthony Stolarz in the Leafs<\/a>\u2018 net.<\/p>\n The Maple Leafs will look to shore up these defensive statistics over the final 6 weeks of the season pic.twitter.com\/aAaDIAV1cO<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) February 25, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n Post-Game Notes <\/p>\n \u2013 The Leafs likely weren\u2019t a serious Cup threat this season, even with sounder coaching, but the number of unforced errors from the current coaching staff has really piled up and has only helped this team on its way to a playoff miss. After the defense stabilized in the three-game winning streak before the break with Morgan Rielly out, they immediately returned to the D pairings that struggled badly during the season-destroying homestand in January: OEL on his offside next to McCabe, Rielly with Carlo, and Stecher with Benoit.<\/p>\n Completely predictably, none of the pairings looked good in this game, and the most important one of them, matchup-wise \u2014 McCabe-OEL \u2014 gave up a critical (cheap) goal against in the second period and allowed another disallowed goal they were beaten on. That pairing has never really worked this season. McCabe-Carlo and OEL-Stecher, with Rielly next to Myers, was the dead-obvious play here. That\u2019s not an endorsement for Myers over Benoit, but it makes far more sense to shelter Rielly next to a righty he\u2019s played with plenty over the past two seasons while keeping the only sensible top-four combinations together. While the Leafs have generally had the Lightning\u2019s number for several years now, Tampa is clearly the best team in the league at the moment (20-1-1 in their last 22). The Lightning haven\u2019t lost a home game since a week before Christmas. Their beloved head coach was away laying his father to rest, which clearly motivated the team even more<\/a>. While Anthony Cirelli wasn\u2019t back yet, Brayden Point was predictably shot out of a cannon after missing the Olympics. Point and also-fresh Nikita Kucherov were in line to play a ton under the Lightning\u2019s 11\/7 setup with Cirelli still out (they each played 22-23 minutes, despite the game being solidly in hand through 43 minutes).<\/p>\n Meanwhile, on the Leafs\u2019 side, Auston Matthews played when some other Olympic finalists around the league did not tonight, and he was undoubtedly jet-lagged and still sweating out the remnants of many adult beverages and the McDonald\u2019s he consumed at the White House. The Lightning ran a Yanni Gourde-centered line with Pontus Holmberg and Zemgus Girgensons against the McMann-Matthews-Domi unit and doubled the Leafs in shots and shot attempts in those five-on-five shifts over the opening 40 minutes of the game. That left the Point-Kucherov line to tear up softer minutes, while the Leafs\u2019 top line lost its matchup to bottom-sixers. Not exactly the path to beating the NHL\u2019s hottest team. \u2013 With that in mind about Matthews, it\u2019s insane he played over 10 minutes in the third period (23 minutes overall!) with the team down 3-0 after 42 minutes. I get they didn\u2019t want to give up on the game altogether, but in the unique circumstances, let\u2019s have some common sense about preservation for tomorrow\u2019s back-to-back and then an every-other-day schedule coming out of the break. \u2013 The other source of either hope or dismay, depending on your perspective (i.e., low likelihood the Leafs could ever tank successfully with their goaltenders): Anthony Stolarz was legitimately good despite the statline, and he was very good in the win before the break against Edmonton. He seems to be finding his form again now, and Joseph Woll was also in good form in his two wins before the break. Berube does not have any of the answers defensively, clearly, so the Leafs would need these two to get hot at the same time and steal some games along the way if they\u2019re going to make this at all interesting.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u2013 In addition to their other, bigger decisions, the Leafs need to either take the seventh-rounder or waive Calle Jarnkrok by the deadline so they can start both playing Cowan regularly (if he\u2019s going to be up) and taking looks at some of the options (Quillan, Groulx, Haymes) on the Marlies<\/a>. Jarnkrok doesn\u2019t have a shot on goal in three games now and has three points in his last 29 games; one of those points was a goal in the 6-1 loss to Utah. Jarnkrok has no future here \u2014 pending UFA, will be replaced by Joshua as of tomorrow, most likely \u2014 and there is no justifying his place on the roster in a season like this one any longer.<\/p>\n Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts <\/p>\n Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts <\/p>\n Game Highlights: Lightning 4 vs. Maple Leafs 2
\u2013 Most fans are understandably viewing the Leafs\u2019 season as completely over after tonight; it\u2019s very likely true, and it probably was even before this regulation loss. But for anyone still wondering if they can fight their way back into it during a critical six-game pre-deadline stretch (which is mostly just the players and maybe some of the team brass at this point), I thought this game against the Lightning set up as the least winnable of them all.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s probably over regardless, but in case it isn\u2019t, the Leafs weren\u2019t going to run the board in these six games anyway, and this was maybe the least winnable of them all. They basically need to run the board in the remaining five to even keep themselves in the conversation, though.<\/p>\n
\u2013 At this point, the Leafs probably can\u2019t reasonably ask Matthews to carry them back into the playoff conversation playing exclusively with Bobby McMann and Max Domi while also facing the toughest matchups. He needs one of Matthew Knies or William Nylander, and not just when trailing in the game like tonight. The Leafs\u2019 forward group is fully healthy now, so they should be able to do it with just a little bit of imaginative thinking. If they move up Knies and run Knies-Matthews-Domi \/ Maccelli-Tavares-Nylander, the likely best move on the third line would be Joshua-Roy-McMann, which was effective together in a 67-minute sample this season, outscoring the opposition 6-0 at five-on-five. It\u2019s sensible to ease Joshua in on the fourth line and run McMann-Roy-Robertson for the time being, but it\u2019s worth giving Joshua-Roy-McMann another look at some point, too. You could run Lorentz-Laughton-Robertson\/Cowan beneath it. It\u2019s easy to throw babies out with the bathwater with this team right now, but this roster and the depth up front are nowhere near as bad as portrayed, or as they seem under this team\u2019s current structure and coaching.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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