{"id":179234,"date":"2026-03-05T13:33:24","date_gmt":"2026-03-05T13:33:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/179234\/"},"modified":"2026-03-05T13:33:24","modified_gmt":"2026-03-05T13:33:24","slug":"2026-tampa-bay-derby-cheat-sheet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/179234\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 Tampa Bay Derby Cheat Sheet"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tampa Bay Downs<\/a> takes center stage Saturday afternoon on the road to the 2026 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve<\/a> with the 46th running of the ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby<\/a>. The $400,000, Grade 3 stakes offers a total of 105 qualifying points toward the May 2 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs<\/a>, distributed to the top five finishers on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale.<\/p>\n

Only two horses that started in the 1 1\/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby went on to win the Kentucky Derby \u2013 Street Sense<\/a>, who won both races in 2007, and Super Saver, who finished third in the Tampa Bay Derby and then scored an upset in the Kentucky Derby in 2010. Still, the race has had an impact on the Triple Crown in recent years, with notable Tampa Bay Derby winners such as Destin (2015, second in the Belmont Stakes), Tapwrit (won the 2017 Belmont Stakes), Tacitus (third in the 2019 Kentucky Derby, second in the Belmont), and Owen Almighty<\/a> (fourth in last year\u2019s Kentucky Derby) proving their worth on a bigger stage.<\/p>\n

This year\u2019s Tampa Bay Derby drew an interesting field headlined by Further Ado, a colt who is rated highly by many Kentucky Derby forecasters and will be making his 3-year-old debut. The Tampa Bay Derby will be shown live on FS2<\/a> during the \u201cAmerica\u2019s Day at the Races<\/a>\u201d show and also on FanDuel TV<\/a>, with a scheduled post time of 5:35 p.m. ET.<\/p>\n

Read on for information about each of the Tampa Bay Derby starters plus some handicapping insights.\u00a0<\/p>\n

1. Redland Rebels<\/a><\/p>\n

Jockey: Junior Alvarado<\/a><\/p>\n

Trainer: Patrick Biancone<\/a><\/p>\n

Owner: Calypso Racing Stables 2022<\/a><\/p>\n

Career record: 3 starts \u2013 1 win \u2013 1 second \u2013 0 thirds<\/p>\n

Career earnings: $87,000<\/p>\n

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 88<\/p>\n

Kentucky Derby points: 0<\/p>\n

Pedigree: Uncle Chuck \u2013 Kombat Cat, by D\u2019wildcat<\/p>\n

Color: Dark bay or brown<\/p>\n

Running style: Pacesetter\/press the pace<\/p>\n

Analysis: This Florida-bred gelding ships in from Gulfstream Park<\/a> in south Florida and will attempt to transfer fine turf form to dirt in the Tampa Bay Derby. He started on Gulfstream\u2019s dirt track to begin his career last summer, and finished a distant fourth in a six-furlong sprint. He then was switched to turf for an August start at Gulfstream and romped by 6 \u00be lengths in a one-mile maiden race. Redland Rebels did not race again until Jan. 13, when he returned in the 1 1\/16-mile Kitten\u2019s Joy Stakes on the grass at Gulfstream and finished a game second by a neck after setting a contested pace. He\u2019ll be a longshot in the Tampa Bay Derby but at the very least should influence the outcome of the race from a pace perspective. Look for Junior Alvarado, who rode Redland Rebels in the Kitten\u2019s Joy, to hustle him out of the gate from the inside post position and attempt to secure the early lead.<\/p>\n

2. Talkin<\/a><\/p>\n

Jockey: Joel Rosario<\/a><\/p>\n

Trainer: Danny Gargan<\/a><\/p>\n

Owners: Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Pine Racing Stables, Legendary Thoroughbreds, Belmar Racing and Breeding, and R. A. Hill Stable<\/a><\/p>\n

Career record: 3 starts \u2013 1 win \u2013 1 second \u2013 0 thirds<\/p>\n

Career earnings: $156,250<\/p>\n

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 88<\/p>\n

Kentucky Derby points: 5<\/p>\n

Pedigree: Good Magic \u2013 Rote, by Tiznow<\/p>\n

Color: Bay<\/p>\n

Running style: Stalker<\/p>\n

Analysis: Talkin was withdrawn from last week\u2019s Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes<\/a> to target the Tampa Bay Derby instead for his 4-year-old debut. He\u2019ll be a middle-priced contender who will need to recover the form he showed in late summer and early fall of last year to have a shot at an upset. The Good Magic colt won his debut, a seven-furlong maiden race Aug. 30 at Saratoga<\/a>, by a rallying neck, and then finished second by 6 \u00bd lengths to Napoleon Solo<\/a> in the one-turn, one-mile Champagne Stakes<\/a> in October at Aqueduct<\/a>, an early Kentucky Derby qualifying race (Napoleon Solo finished fifth last week in the Fountain of Youth). Talkin then tried a two-turn race for the first time in his final 2025 start, and disappointed in the 1 1\/8-mile Remsen Stakes<\/a> at Aqueduct on Dec. 6, fading to check in ninth of 11 runners. He\u2019s bred to easily handle two turns, so it will be interesting to see if he\u2019s improved in the three months away from competition. A career-best effort could help him fill out the trifecta or superfecta at least, and possibly do even better against a Tampa Bay Derby field that lacks star power aside from Further Ado.<\/p>\n

3. Roger That Dana<\/a><\/p>\n

Jockey: Renzo Rojas<\/a><\/p>\n

Trainer: Luis Ramirez<\/a><\/p>\n

Owner: Smith Ranch Stables<\/a><\/p>\n

Career record: 3 starts \u2013 1 win \u2013 1 second \u2013 1 third<\/p>\n

Career earnings: $103,200<\/p>\n

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 82<\/p>\n

Kentucky Derby points: 0<\/p>\n

Pedigree: Awesome Slew \u2013 Take Me to Zuber, by Toccet<\/p>\n

Color: Bay<\/p>\n

Running style: Stalker\/press the pace<\/p>\n

Analysis: This Florida-bred ridgling is another Tampa Bay Derby entrant shipping north from Gulfstream Park. He posted an impressive first-out win back in October, taking a six-furlong sprint restricted to state-breds by three lengths. Roger That Dana then finished a nonthreatening third in his stakes and two-turn debut Nov. 29, ending up 10 \u00bc lengths behind dominant winner Strategic Risk<\/a> in the FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality Stakes held at 1 1\/16 miles. In his 3-year-old debut, he raced against open company for the first time and finished second to Commandment<\/a> in the one-mile, one-turn Mucho Macho Man Stakes Jan. 3 at Gulfstream. Strategic Risk went on to win the Smarty Jones Stakes<\/a> at Oaklawn Park<\/a> before disappointing in two subsequent Kentucky Derby preps, while Commandment just came back to post an impressive and fast win in the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes. Roger That Dana has faced solid competition in his young career; the problem is, he hasn\u2019t been much of a threat in those races. The same result is very likely to play out Saturday.<\/p>\n

4. Hulkamania<\/a><\/p>\n

Jockey: Jareth Loveberry<\/a><\/p>\n

Trainer: Whit Beckman<\/a><\/p>\n

Owners: Hoolie Racing Stable, Blue Mist Racing, and Icon Racing Stable<\/a><\/p>\n

Career record: 1 start \u2013 1 win \u2013 0 seconds \u2013 0 thirds<\/p>\n

Career earnings: $18,560<\/p>\n

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 76<\/p>\n

Kentucky Derby points: 0<\/p>\n

Pedigree: McKinzie \u2013 Paris Amour, by Frosted<\/p>\n

Color: Bay<\/p>\n

Running style: Stalker<\/p>\n

Analysis: Hulkamania is one of three Tampa Bay Derby runners coming into the race off of only one career start, along with Powershift and Canaletto. He impressed in his seven-furlong debut Feb. 8 at this track, rallying from a stalking position to power clear and win by a widening four lengths. His Equibase Speed Figure in that race was modest, but it surely can be improved upon in his second career start, although making a 20-25 point jump that\u2019s probably required to win Saturday\u2019s Grade 3 stakes is a stretch. Hulkamania has a pedigree that suggests he\u2019ll improve in longer-distance races, which is a plus; on the other hand, he might go off at lower odds than he should due to the presence of jockey Jareth Loveberry, who just returned from injury and could attract fans, and even more so due to his name (the recently departed Terry Bollea, aka Hulk Hogan, was from nearby Clearwater). A good horse to consider using in trifecta and superfecta bets.<\/p>\n

New To Horse Racing? Let Us Explain…<\/p>\n

A trifecta or superfecta filler:\u00a0We’re suggesting that you might want to add the horse to your bet if you\u2019re playing an trifecta (picking the first three\u00a0finishers) or a superfecta (first four finishers), and using this horse in the third and\/or fourth slot but not to win.<\/p>\n

5. Powershift<\/a><\/p>\n

Jockey: John Velazquez<\/a><\/p>\n

Trainer: Todd Pletcher<\/a><\/p>\n

Owner: Repole Stable<\/a><\/p>\n

Career record: 1 start \u2013 0 wins \u2013 1 second \u2013 0 thirds<\/p>\n

Career earnings: $6,400<\/p>\n

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 78<\/p>\n

Kentucky Derby points: 0<\/p>\n

Pedigree: Constitution \u2013 Free Flying Soul, by Quiet American<\/p>\n

Color: Dark bay or brown<\/p>\n

Running style: Stalker\/press the pace<\/p>\n

Analysis: Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher has the most wins in the history of the Tampa Bay Derby with six, the most recent coming with Tapit Trice in 2023. This well-bred Constitution colt gives him an outside shot at a seventh victory, although he\u2019ll have to improve substantially off of a solid career debut on this track to do so. Powershift was the 11-10 favorite in a one mile and 40-yard maiden race Feb. 7 that also drew several other well-backed contenders, and he dueled gamely through the stretch while exchanging bumps with another first-timer, Emerging Market, before settling for second by three-quarters of a length. While Emerging Market, who is trained by Canaletto\u2019s conditioner Chad Brown, will target the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby<\/a> at Fair Grounds<\/a>, this precocious 3-year-old stays in Tampa for a big class jump Saturday. He\u2019ll need to boost his debut Equibase Speed Figure by about 20 points to be within reach of an upset \u2026 but keep in mind, Todd Pletcher and Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez just teamed up with another under-the-radar contender to do the same in another Derby prep last week, taking the Rebel Stakes<\/a> with Class President<\/a>. A live longshot.<\/p>\n

6. Further Ado<\/a><\/p>\n

Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.<\/a><\/p>\n

Trainer: Brad Cox<\/a><\/p>\n

Owner: Spendthrift Farm<\/a><\/p>\n

Career record: 4 starts \u2013 2 wins \u2013 0 seconds \u2013 1 third<\/p>\n

Career earnings: $320,703<\/p>\n

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 105<\/p>\n

Kentucky Derby points: 10<\/p>\n

Pedigree: Gun Runner \u2013 Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa<\/p>\n

Color: Chestnut<\/p>\n

Running style: Stalker<\/p>\n

Analysis: Further Ado has been positioned among the upper echelon of Kentucky Derby prospects since last fall, when he electrified the crowd at Keeneland plus simulcast watchers with a 20-length romp in a 1 1\/16-mile maiden race (his third start) and then followed that with a 1 \u00be-length win in his stakes debut in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes<\/a> Nov. 29 at Churchill Downs. That victory was less visually striking than his maiden score and earned a lower Equibase Speed Figure as well, but it was still impressive. Trainer Brad Cox has been patient with this well-bred son of top sire Gun Runner<\/a> over the winter, and he brings him back after a series of solid workouts at Payson Park Training Center in Florida to face a Tampa Bay Derby field with some intriguing contenders but no stakes winners. He\u2019s the deserving morning-line favorite and will be very tough to handle if he\u2019s able to take another step forward after a three-month break. One note of caution: the two horses that followed him in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, Universe<\/a> and Soldier N Diplomat<\/a>, have returned at age 3 to\u00a0secure only minor awards (at best) in subsequent Kentucky Derby preps.<\/p>\n

New to racing? Let us explain\u2026<\/p>\n

Morning line:\u00a0In horse racing, each racetrack hires an oddsmaker to give estimates about what kind of support a horse will receive from bettors in the pari-mutuel pool, which collects wagers from everyone gambling on a particular race. These estimates are called morning-line odds and are usually announced a day or two before the race is run. The morning-line odds are a starting point when a race becomes open for betting and will change as bettors begin to make their wagers. The final odds can be very different from the morning-line odds for each horse by the time the race starts.<\/p>\n

7. Thunder Buck<\/a><\/p>\n

Jockey: Samuel Marin<\/a><\/p>\n

Trainer: Brendan Walsh<\/a><\/p>\n

Owners: Calumet Farm<\/a><\/p>\n

Career record: 3 starts \u2013 1 win \u2013 0 seconds \u2013 0 thirds<\/p>\n

Career earnings: $38,293<\/p>\n

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 86<\/p>\n

Kentucky Derby points: 0<\/p>\n

Pedigree: Gun Runner \u2013 Oxy Lady, by Oxbow<\/p>\n

Color: Bay<\/p>\n

Running style: Closer<\/p>\n

Analysis: Thunder Buck will attempt a reset on the Kentucky Derby trail after showing little in his first qualifying race, the Jan. 17 Lecomte Stakes<\/a> at Fair Grounds. He backed out of contention when the field turned for home in the 1 1\/16-mile Lecomte, fading to last of 10, a puzzling effort considering he\u2019d won his prep for that race, a maiden event held at the same track and distance, by\u00a01 \u00be lengths in late December. Now he\u2019s shipping to Tampa for another try in a Derby prep for new trainer Brendan Walsh, and if the 86 Equibase Speed Figure he earned in the maiden win is indicative of his true talent and can be improved upon, he could be a factor Saturday. This son of 2017 Horse of the Year and premier sire Gun Runner is bred to easily handle route distances, and getting the services of Samuel Marin, the current runaway leading rider at Tampa Bay, is a plus. The race\u2019s wild card.<\/p>\n

8. The Puma<\/a><\/p>\n

Jockey: Javier Castellano<\/a><\/p>\n

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado<\/a><\/p>\n

Owners: OGMA Investments, JR Ranch, and High Step Racing<\/a><\/p>\n

Career record: 2 starts \u2013 0 firsts \u2013 1 second \u2013 1 third<\/p>\n

Career earnings: $34,280<\/p>\n

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 90<\/p>\n

Kentucky Derby points: 6<\/p>\n

Pedigree: Essential Quality \u2013 Eve of War, by Declaration of War<\/p>\n

Color: Chestnut<\/p>\n

Running style: Stalker<\/p>\n

Analysis: Although he\u2019s still seeking his first career victory, The Puma figures to receive betting support in the Tampa Bay Derby as he\u2019s kept very good company through two starts and has given solid efforts. Perhaps the third time\u2019s the charm with this Gulfstream Park-based runner, who debuted on Jan. 10 in a seven-furlong maiden race. Sent off as the post-time favorite, The Puma hung in with winner Chief Wallabee<\/a>, another first-timer, for most of the stretch run before settling for second, 1 \u00bd lengths back and 9 \u00bc lengths clear of the third-place horse. He was then sent to this track for the Feb. 7 Sam F. Davis Stakes<\/a>, held at 1 1\/16 miles and the local prep for the Tampa Bay Derby, where\u00a0he ran a decent albeit nonthreatening third behind impressive winner Renegade<\/a>. Chief Wallabee came back to run second by a neck in last week\u2019s Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes, while Renegade will probably be one of the favorites in next month\u2019s Arkansas Derby<\/a>. Aside from Further Ado, The Puma has the best r\u00e9sum\u00e9 among this year\u2019s relatively inexperienced Tampa Bay Derby field. He\u2019ll need to improve to win, but that\u2019s not out of the question. Hall of Famer Javier Castellano, who was aboard in The Puma\u2019s maiden race, gets back in the saddle Saturday.<\/p>\n

9. Canaletto<\/a><\/p>\n

Jockey: Flavien Prat<\/a><\/p>\n

Trainer: Chad Brown<\/a><\/p>\n

Owners: Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Peter Brant, and Brooke Smith<\/a><\/p>\n

Career record: 1 start \u2013 1 win \u2013 0 seconds \u2013 0 thirds<\/p>\n

Career earnings: $40,800<\/p>\n

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 94<\/p>\n

Kentucky Derby points: 0<\/p>\n

Pedigree: Into Mischief \u2013Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor<\/p>\n

Color: Bay<\/p>\n

Running style: Press the pace<\/p>\n

Analysis: He\u2019s coming into the Tampa Bay Derby off of only one start, yet Canaletto is a candidate to have the second lowest post-time odds in the race behind Further Ado. The son of top sire Into Mischief and half-brother to 2025 Arkansas Derby winner Sandman<\/a> is ambitiously elevated in class by trainer Chad Brown, but rightfully so based on his dominant eight-length debut win Jan. 25 at Gulfstream Park. In that one-mile, one-turn maiden race, Canaletto was positioned just off of the pace soon after the start, took over at will when asked by jockey Flavien Prat, and settled matters in early stretch, trouncing seven opponents. He earned 94 Equibase Speed Figure, very good for a first-timer, and is certainly eligible to improve on that number in his second start. Prat travels to Tampa for the mount, and aside from Further Ado, who will be making his first start in over three months, this year\u2019s Tampa Bay Derby is light on proven stakes horses. He\u2019s a leading win threat, although I\u2019m sure his connections would have rather had drawn a better post position.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Tampa Bay Downs takes center stage Saturday afternoon on the road to the 2026 Kentucky Derby Presented by…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":179235,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[135,137,136],"class_list":["post-179234","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-tampa","tag-tampa","tag-tampa-headlines","tag-tampa-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/179234","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=179234"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/179234\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/179235"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=179234"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=179234"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=179234"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}