\n\tThe 31-0 Miami (Ohio) men\u2019s basketball team is just three wins away from a Mid-American Conference Tournament championship and an automatic NCAA Tournament berth. But would it be better for the conference if the RedHawks lose?<\/p>\n
\n\tThe NCAA distributes hundreds of millions of dollars each year to conferences based on their members\u2019 success in the men\u2019s basketball tournament\u2014a complex system that Sportico broke down in detail here<\/a>. Conferences essentially earn one \u201cunit\u201d for each game their teams play in the tournament (including First Four contests) before the final. Each unit earned in this year\u2019s tournament will be worth roughly $2 million, paid out in annual increments over the next six years.<\/p>\n \n\tBecause conference champions automatically qualify for March Madness, each conference has a minimum number of base units accumulated over the previous six years, plus any additional units earned from multiple schools getting bids or tournament games won. This year, for instance, the MAC has five units from automatic bids in the last five tournaments (there was no tournament in 2020 due to COVID), and one additional unit from Ohio\u2019s upset win over Virginia in 2021.<\/p>\n \n\tEvery conference distributes the money differently to its member institutions\u2014some divide it equally, while others give more to schools that make the tournament. The MAC uses a hybrid approach: Payouts from base units are split evenly among the conference\u2019s 13 schools, while money earned via additional units is distributed based on team success. Factors measuring success include the regular season championship, NCAA Tournament bids, NCAA Tournament wins, NIT bids, Quadrant 1 wins and finishing the season in the top 50 or top 100 in NET rating. <\/p>\n \n\tDue to Miami\u2019s undefeated regular season, the expert consensus is that it would get an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament even if it loses in the MAC Tournament. That is not a given, since Miami played a weak schedule that didn\u2019t include a single power conference opponent, so a quarterfinal loss to 16-15 UMass could change the calculus. But a Miami defeat in the semifinal or final this week would nearly guarantee the conference two March Madness bids for the first time since 1999.<\/p>\n \n\t\u201cI don\u2019t spend a lot of time thinking about it that way,\u201d MAC commissioner Dr. Jon Steinbrecher said. \u201cI think all of us are anxious to accumulate units when you get to March. Now, do we do that by having multiple teams? Do we do that by having a single team that wins several rounds? Or is it multiple teams that go several rounds?\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tStatistician Ken Pomeroy\u2019s model (KenPom) gives the Miami RedHawks only a 25% chance to win the MAC Tournament, much less than second-seeded Akron at 49%. The Zips have won 16 consecutive conference games since losing to Miami on Jan. 3, and they rank No. 60 in Pomeroy\u2019s national rankings, ahead of the RedHawks at No. 91.<\/p>\n \n\tMarch Madness seeding, though, is a factor for potential units in addition to qualification. CBS Sports currently pegs Miami as a No. 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but that could increase or decrease based on the team\u2019s MAC tourney performance. Of course, a higher seed will give the RedHawks a better chance to win a first-round game in the Big Dance. Counterintuitively, though, No. 11 seeds often win more total NCAA Tournament games than No. 8 or No. 9 seeds because they avoid facing a No. 1 seed in the second round.<\/p>\n \n\tFor each additional unit, an extra $300,000 to $400,000 annually for the next six years would be allocated to the MAC\u2019s most successful basketball programs under the current distribution policy. In 2023-24, the most recent season with data available in Sportico\u2019s college finances database<\/a>, MAC athletic departments generated the least revenue of any FBS conference by a significant margin. Buffalo was the league-leader with $42.2 million in total revenues, including institutional and government support, while Northern Illinois brought up the rear with just $29.2 million. The conference\u2019s men\u2019s basketball teams averaged only $221,000 in ticket sales and $134,000 in donations. <\/p>\n \n\t\u201cI don\u2019t think there\u2019s ever been a time when any of our schools would say they have enough revenue,\u201d Steinbrecher said. \u201cSo they\u2019re all looking for additional dollars that they can either use to offset current expenses or plow back into the program.\u201d<\/p>\n