Todd Golden<\/a>\u2018s team bounce back this time? Let\u2019s make some predictions.<\/p>\nHere\u2019s how far Saturday Down South predicts Florida will advance in the 2026 NCAA Tournament:<\/p>\n
Round 1: No. 16 Lehigh (in Tampa)<\/p>\n
RECORD: 18-16 (11-7 PATRIOT); KENPOM: 284; NET RANK: 275<\/p>\n
BEST WIN: vs. Texas State; WORST LOSS: at West Virginia<\/p>\n
ESPN Analytics is giving Lehigh, the No. 67 overall seed, a 53.6% probability to beat Prairie View A&M, the No. 68 overall seed, in the First Four play-in game for the No. 16 seed in the South, so let\u2019s go with the favorite and the computers here for Florida\u2019s first game. Frankly, it really shouldn\u2019t matter which team a rested UF squad faces in front of a Tampa crowd. Sure, the Gators can be \u201coff\u201d at times, but neither potential opponent is going to be ready for Florida\u2019s backcourt, not to mention a team determined to get the taste of losing out of its mouth.<\/p>\n
PREDICTION: Florida 93, Lehigh 69<\/p>\n
Round 2: No. 9 Iowa (in Tampa)<\/p>\n
RECORD: 21-12 (10-10 B1G) ; KENPOM:25; NET RANK: 27<\/p>\n
BEST WIN: vs. No. 9 Nebraska; WORST LOSS: at Penn State<\/p>\n
The 8\/9 opening-round matchup is basically a toss-up. Both Iowa and Clemson have some concerning recent stumbles, but the Hawkeyes play strong defense and keep most games close, which should carry them to the Round of 32.<\/p>\n
Iowa\u2019s r\u00e9sum\u00e9, though, isn\u2019t all that impressive. The Hawkeyes knocked off a top-10 Nebraska team in a 57-52 game at home. They kept things close with Michigan at home (71-68) and on the road early in the year against in-state rival Iowa State (66-62). When looking at upset potential, though, there aren\u2019t many big wins.<\/p>\n
Florida shouldn\u2019t take Iowa lightly, but it\u2019s hard to see the Gators stumbling in Tampa against a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team. The Hawkeyes haven\u2019t shown the scoring firepower to upset a defense like UF.<\/p>\n
PREDICTION: Florida 79, Iowa 68<\/p>\n
Round 3: No. 5 Vanderbilt (in Houston)<\/p>\n
RECORD: 26-8 (11-7 SEC); KENPOM: 12; NET RANK: 13<\/p>\n
BEST WIN: vs. No. 4 Florida; WORST LOSS: vs. Oklahoma<\/p>\n
This gets tricky. Vanderbilt seems to have Florida figured out better than others. The Gators give up 72 points per game, and Vanderbilt is actually pulling the average up with 94 points in a home loss and 91 points in the recent SEC Tournament victory.<\/p>\n
Those games, though, were both in Nashville, first at Vanderbilt\u2019s home Memorial Gym and then just down the road at Bridgestone Arena. Give Florida a full week of rest and prep in a true neutral site, and the Commodores aren\u2019t as likely to establish an early lead that puts pressure on the Gators.<\/p>\n
On top of the matchup giving Florida fits, Vanderbilt is under-seeded. How the KenPom No. 12 and NET No. 13 landed at No. 5 after an impressive SEC Tournament run is a real head-scratcher.<\/p>\n
Even if Vandy should be a 3- or 4-seed, the Gators still have the more impressive overall body of work. Florida played about as poorly as possible last time out in the SEC Tournament against the Dores. Trust Golden to have the Gators playing better in the NCAA Tournament, but expect Vandy to make it a tight, high-scoring game.<\/p>\n
PREDICTION: Florida 85, Vanderbilt 81<\/p>\n
Round 4: No. 2 Houston (in Houston)<\/p>\n
RECORD: 28-6 (14-4 Big 12); KENPOM: 5; NET RANK: 5<\/p>\n
BEST WIN: vs. No. 14 Kansas (Big 12 Tournament); WORST LOSS: vs. No. 17 Tennessee (Player\u2019s Era)<\/p>\n
Florida earned the last No. 1 seed in the field of 68, but it\u2019s fair to say the Gators did not get the most favorable draw. Figure out Round 3 against Vanderbilt, and the potential reward is a rematch of the national championship game in a tough environment. <\/p>\n
Last year\u2019s crowd in San Antonio notably favored Houston. This game would officially be neutral, but the Cougars would have an undeniable advantage with the game being played in Houston.<\/p>\n
Houston is battle-tested by playing in the loaded Big 12. It wasn\u2019t easy picking the \u201cworst loss\u201d for the Cougars. They fell by just 3 points to then-No. 17 Tennessee at the Players Era Festival in November, and then there\u2019s a 13-point defeat against a top-15 Kansas team at Allen Fieldhouse.<\/p>\n
The Cougars have long been about great defense. Houston allows 62.9 points per game this year, and recently held Kansas to just 47 points in the Big 12 Tournament.<\/p>\n
Unfortunately for Florida, Walter Clayton Jr. isn\u2019t walking through that door this time. (Will Richard and Alijah Martin aren\u2019t either.)<\/p>\n
Florida won its third national championship in Texas. The repeat campaign may not make it out of the Lone Star State.<\/p>\n
PREDICTION: Houston 74, Florida 73<\/p>\n
![\"Andrew](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/1773672787_603_a2d68e0571f909e1561fb3655fe067b996acfde074a03410b085b5d482521547.png\"\/)
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Andrew writes about sports to fund his love of live music and collection of concert posters. He strongly endorses the Hall of Fame campaigns of Fred Taylor and Andruw Jones.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Florida Gators have a target on their back as defending national champions, but this year, they aren\u2019t…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":193543,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[28,30,29],"class_list":["post-193542","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-florida","tag-florida","tag-florida-headlines","tag-florida-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/193542","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=193542"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/193542\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/193543"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=193542"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=193542"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=193542"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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