The ongoing conflict with Iran has driven gas prices to $3.93 a gallon on average in Florida, and some analysts are predicting they\u2019ll go even higher as summer approaches. <\/p>\n
Crude oil prices have surged about 40 percent since the combined U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran began on Feb. 28, reaching their highest levels since 2022, trading above $100 a barrel.<\/p>\n
Iran has nearly halted traffic through the narrow Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world\u2019s oil typically sails from the Persian Gulf to customers worldwide. About 7 percent of U.S. crude oil imports<\/a> flow through the strait.<\/p>\n Find out what’s happening in St. Petefor free with the latest updates from Patch.<\/p>\n The largest supply disruption<\/a> in the history of the global oil market, it could make $5-a-gallon gas<\/a> commonplace this spring and early summer if oil costs reach $150 a barrel, Barron\u2019s reported. Analysts caution that hitting that level isn\u2019t certain, but if the conflict drags on for months, it increases the odds of much higher pump prices. <\/p>\n The national average for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline jumped about 7 cents overnight Monday to $3.79, according to AAA. That compares to $3.54 a gallon a week ago, $2.92 a gallon a month ago, and $3.08 a gallon a year ago.<\/p>\n Find out what’s happening in St. Petefor free with the latest updates from Patch.<\/p>\n In Florida, Tuesday\u2019s state average compares with $3.63 a gallon a week ago, $2.83 a gallon a month ago, and $3.09 a gallon a year ago.<\/p>\n Gas prices around Monroe County are currently the highest at $4.11 per gallon, according to AAA, while motorists in Oskalossa County in the panhandle are paying the lowest at $3.48 per gallon.<\/p>\n Both the shift to more expensive summer-blend fuel, which is less prone to evaporating in the heat and causing smog, and increased spring break travel<\/a> are also contributing to higher prices, according to AAA.<\/p>\n \u201cWe were all set to rise to $3.10-$3.25 a gallon with a peaceful Persian Gulf,\u201d Tom Kloza, senior adviser for fuel supplier Gulf, told Reuters<\/a>, in the hours after the initial bombings. \u201cWe’ll now get there very quickly, and the action of the last 48 hours puts higher numbers in play.\u201d<\/p>\n Oil has been trading for around $100 a barrel, but the price could double if the Strait of Hormuz isn\u2019t fully opened, Rory Johnston, an oil analyst who founded the newsletter Commodity Context, said in a post on X<\/a> in early March.<\/p>\n Iran is maintaining its stranglehold over the 1-mile-wide waterway that connects oil-rich countries in the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world. Last week, Ebrahim Zolfaqari, the spokesperson for Tehran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters, said the de facto blockade would continue.<\/p>\n \u201cGet ready for the oil barrel to be at $200<\/a>because the oil price depends on the regional security, which you have destabilized,\u201d Zolfaqari said in comments addressed to Washington.<\/p>\n As a general rule, every $10 increase in the price of crude oil adds 20 to 30 cents to the cost of a gallon of gas.<\/p>\n U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on CNN that it is \u201cunlikely\u201d crude oil prices will reach that level. <\/p>\n \u201cI would say unlikely, but we are focused on the military operation and solving a problem,” Wright said<\/a>.<\/p>\n The Trump administration has consistently downplayed the long-term effects of the conflict on gas prices, a stand Patrick DeHaan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, shot down in a post on X<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cIf only politicians were petroleum analysts, they may realize they can wish for things, but they don\u2019t always get them,\u201d DeHaan wrote. \u201cPrices aren\u2019t likely to drop back fully down to pre-war prices until later this year, since seasonal factors will prevent a full drop back down.\u201d<\/p>\n DeHaan wrote on Substack<\/a> that even if oil prices stabilize, prices at the pump are likely to continue rising as higher wholesale costs move through the supply chain.<\/p>\n \u201cFor now, motorists should prepare for continued volatility and potentially higher prices at the pump as one of the world\u2019s most important energy regions faces its most serious escalation in years,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n