![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/35430585-724C-4774-BF52-F6A1E4F0D36C.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nNathan\u2019s victory, though by a razor thin margin, is indeed a big overperformance. Collins\u00a0won his race four years ago<\/a>\u00a0with nearly 55% of the vote, a nearly 10-percentage-point victory.<\/p>\n Data, compared with results, also suggests nonpartisan and minor-party voters may have swung singificantly toward the Democratic candidate. It\u2019s also possible some Republicans bucked their party to cast a ballot for Nathan.<\/p>\n Early voting data in the days leading up to the election foreshadowed a Tomkow victory, but suggested Democrats may perform better than the last time the seat was on the ballot.<\/p>\n Early-vote totals on Monday, assuming Republican voters cast a ballot for Tomkow and Democrats for Nathan, suggested Tomkow would have the edge with 44% of ballots cast, while Democratic ballots would account for a little less than 39%.<\/p>\n But by mid-day Tuesday, with Election Day ballots rolling in, it looked like Democrats might not even get an overperformance, with vote tallies showing about 6,000 more ballots cast by Republicans than Democrats.<\/p>\n Even prediction market giant Kalshi had Tomkow at\u00a094% odds of winning<\/a>, as of midday Monday.<\/p>\n GOP voters account for nearly 39% of the district\u2019s electorate, with nearly 116,000 voters. Democrats account for just 31%, with nearly 93,000 voters. Nearly 27% of the electorate \u2014 just over 79,000 voters \u2014 is not affiliated with a political party.<\/p>\n Adding to the political shock value, Tomkow entered the race in November and quickly cleared the field, leaving her unopposed in a GOP Primary after\u00a0announcing her campaign<\/a>\u00a0with support from prominent Republican politicians.<\/p>\n Backers include U.S. Rep.\u00a0Laurel\u00a0Lee; state Reps.\u00a0Lawrence McClure, the House budget chief,\u00a0Danny\u00a0Alvarez,\u00a0Traci Koster\u00a0and\u00a0Michael\u00a0Owen; Sheriffs\u00a0Chad\u00a0Chronister\u00a0of Hillsborough County,\u00a0Grady\u00a0Judd\u00a0of Polk County and\u00a0Chris\u00a0Nocco\u00a0of Pasco County; and Hillsborough County Commissioner\u00a0Christine\u00a0Miller.<\/p>\n That support also comes with money. The most recent reports show Tomkow had about $148,000 on hand in her\u00a0official campaign account<\/a>, with another nearly $315,000 in an affiliated political committee,\u00a0Friends of Josie Tomkow<\/a>.<\/p>\n None of that accounts for outside spending on her behalf. But even still, it far surpasses the spending capabilities of her challenger. Nathan has raised less than $65,000 via\u00a0his official campaign<\/a>\u00a0and had just over $12,000 remaining on hand as of Feb. 12, the most recent date for which data is available.<\/p>\n Tomkow also dominated early voting.<\/p>\n On Monday morning, after early voting had concluded for the race, Republican voter turnout was\u00a03,000 ballots ahead of Democratic turnout<\/a>. On Friday, the gap had been\u00a0just 2,000<\/a>. Earlier in the week it was\u00a0only about 1,000<\/a>.<\/p>\n Tomkow currently represents House District 51 but was facing term limits this year.<\/p>\n Over the past several years, Tomkow has proven herself to be a quiet force in the House. As a cattle rancher, she has provided strong representation for agriculture communities and she was a\u00a0key member<\/a>\u00a0of Speaker\u00a0Daniel Perez\u2019s\u00a0leadership team, helping shape numerous legislative packages beyond just her own bills.<\/p>\n Nathan is a journeyman who previously worked as an electrical foreman and industrial electrician for Electro Design Engineering in Tampa. He\u2019s now\u00a0Vice President<\/a>\u00a0of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers local 915. Nathan has\u00a0collected significant support<\/a>\u00a0from numerous unions, including the Florida AFL-CIO, the Hillsborough Classroom Teachers Association, the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers and the local iron workers union.<\/p>\n Nathan\u00a0is a Navy veteran<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Orlando native<\/a>\u00a0who moved to Tampa in 2008 after his military career concluded. He attended Hillsborough Community College and earned his undergraduate degrees in philosophy and sociology from the University of Tampa.<\/p>\n SD 14 went unrepresented in the 2026 Legislative Session. Nathan now will be able to serve in a Special Session from the upper chamber to pass a budget, which did not get done during the 60-day Regular Session.<\/p>\n Tomkow\u2019s House seat was also on the ballot Tuesday night, meaning it will remain represented for a Special Session. There, Republican Hilary Holley won her race against Democrat Edwin Perez.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Democrat Brian Nathan has pulled off a remarkable upset in the Special Election for Senate District 14, defeating…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":204824,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[27211,94095,28,30,29,76542,5187,27213,412,27215,27216,6870],"class_list":["post-204823","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-florida","tag-brian-nathan","tag-edwin-perez","tag-florida","tag-florida-headlines","tag-florida-news","tag-hilary-holley","tag-jay-collins","tag-josie-tomkow","tag-ron-desantis","tag-sd-14","tag-senate-district-14","tag-special-election"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/204823","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=204823"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/204823\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/204824"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=204823"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=204823"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=204823"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/1768481712_621_unnamed-1.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n