{"id":205063,"date":"2026-03-25T06:19:48","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T06:19:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/205063\/"},"modified":"2026-03-25T06:19:48","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T06:19:48","slug":"nhl-analyst-details-why-stats-favor-tampa-bay-to-win-stanley-cup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/205063\/","title":{"rendered":"NHL analyst details why stats favor Tampa Bay to win Stanley Cup"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Tampa Bay Lightning<\/a> have failed to make noise in the NHL<\/a> playoffs since their three consecutive trips to the Stanley Cup Final between 2020 and 2022.<\/p>\n

The Jon Cooper-led squad lost in the first round, twice to the champion Florida Panthers, during each of the past three postseasons.<\/p>\n

But the team\u2019s fortunes may be about to change. \u201cDaily Faceoff\u201d podcast host Brock Seguin shared a statistical analysis that points to the Lightning as the Stanley Cup favorite.<\/p>\n

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For example, Seguin broke down numbers for the past 10 Stanley Cup winners. Ultimately, he chose key stats 5-on-5 goals-for percentage and expected goals-for percentage, 5-on-5 save percentage, power play-plus-penalty kill percentage and power play percentage.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey were the stats that most closely correlated with all of those Stanley Cup champions. I just wanted to say, \u2018Who\u2019s in the running this year?\u2019 And the Tampa Bay Lightning were the only team that checked the boxes in all five of those categories,\u201d Seguin said on the podcast<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The last 10 Stanley Cup winners \ud83c\udfc6:<\/p>\n

\u2013 9\/10 were top 10 in 5v5 GF%
\u2013 8\/10 were top 12 in 5v5 xGF%
\u2013 10\/10 were top 12 in 5v5 SV%
\u2013 9\/10 were top 12 in PP% + PK%
\u2013 9\/10 were top half in PP%<\/p>\n

Right now, only ONE team checks all 5: Tampa Bay Lightning<\/p>\n

\u2014 Brock Seguin (@Brock_Seguin) March 23, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n

Tampa Bay is 43-21-5 with 13 games remaining in the regular season. Its 91 points rank third in the Eastern Conference and sixth in the NHL.<\/p>\n

The Colorado Avalanche lead the league with 102 points. However, Seguin pointed out that Colorado\u2019s poor power-play percentage is keeping the Avs from joining the conversation. For instance, the Avalanche rank 30th in power-play percentage at 16.5 percent.<\/p>\n

Tampa Bay right wing Nikita Kucherov leads all NHL players with 119 points. Therefore, he is seeking his third consecutive Art Ross Trophy, which is presented to the league\u2019s points leader.<\/p>\n

\"\"\"\"<\/p>\n

Buffalo Sabres defenseman Mattias Samuelsson (23) blocks a shot by Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Nikita Kucherov (86). | Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images<\/p>\n

Lightning goalkeeper Andrei Vasilevskiy leads the NHL in victories (33) and is tied for second in save percentage (.915).<\/p>\n

Tampa Bay hosts the Minnesota Wild, one of the teams ahead of them in the NHL hierarchy, at 7:30 p.m. ET March 24 on TNT and Max.<\/p>\n

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