{"id":206172,"date":"2026-03-26T00:02:13","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T00:02:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/206172\/"},"modified":"2026-03-26T00:02:13","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T00:02:13","slug":"trumps-unpopularity-high-gas-prices-and-more-helped-florida-dems-flip-two-seats-says-analysts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/206172\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump’s unpopularity, high gas prices and more, helped Florida Dems flip two seats, says analysts"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"Donald Trump at the White House in Washington, D.C. on Aug. 18, 2025. Credit: Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok<\/a><\/p>\n

Florida Democrats had their best election night in years Tuesday, flipping two legislative seats.<\/p>\n

Analysts and politicians point to the combination of strong candidates, low turnout special elections, rising gas prices compounding existing affordability issues and the ongoing conflict in Iran, which helped offset the registration and financial advantages of Republicans. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Also, historically, an unpopular president heading towards the midterm elections is always tricky for the party in power.<\/p>\n

These factors may justify some optimism for the minority party in the state heading into the November election cycle, which could see rematches from Tuesday\u2019s contests.<\/p>\n

University of Central Florida political science professor Aubrey Jewett said at the campaign level Florida Democrats did a good job getting solid candidates who didn\u2019t make mistakes and stuck to the message of affordability.<\/p>\n

Also, there is the timing, as historically the sitting president\u2019s party more often loses seats in midterm elections at the congressional and state legislative levels. Jewett added that unpopular presidents lose even more seats, noting that since the 2024 presidential election, Democrats have flipped more than two dozen seats in Republican or battleground states.<\/p>\n

\u201cPresident Trump\u2019s unpopularity cast a long, dark shadow over these Republican candidates in these races,\u201d Jewett said. \u201cAnd so, even if you had decent candidates, it was just too much of an uphill battle because of President Trump\u2019s unpopularity.\u201d<\/p>\n

Democrat Emily Gregory of Jupiter led by 2.38 percentage points with 33,429 ballots cast in the House District 87 contest along the east coast of Palm Beach County. The district includes the home of President Donald Trump.<\/p>\n

Gregory is a Treasure Coast native, a military spouse and mother of three with a master\u2019s degree in public health from Columbia University who operates a small fitness business.<\/p>\n

Tampa Democrat Brian Nathan, a U.S. Navy veteran and organizer with the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, was up 0.51 percentage points in the state Senate District 14 contest in Hillsborough County, where 80,016 votes were cast.<\/p>\n

The results remain unofficial.<\/p>\n

Republican Hilary Holley easily won the third legislative special election, House District 51 in Polk County, by more than 8 percentage points.<\/p>\n

In the Tampa State Senate race, Jewett said there was evidence that Republicans seemed to be doing well in early voting, noting GOP candidate Josie Tomkow, a former House member, had good name recognition and funding. \u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cBut it appears that the Democrats that turn out were strongly unified and (no party affiliation voters) must have gone strongly Democratic as well \u2014 and it seems likely that at least some Republicans voted Democratic,\u201d Jewett said.<\/p>\n

House Speaker-designate Sam Garrison, R-Fleming Island, who led GOP efforts for the House special elections, issued a statement Tuesday night that Republican Jon Maples ran an \u201cextremely strong campaign\u201d for the Palm Beach County seat, but faced\u00a0\u201clow Republican turnout due to awkward special election timing,\u201d and also questioned \u201cdespicable, dark-money\u201d attacks against the candidate.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Garrison added, \u201cWe will learn from today\u2019s results and see you in November.\u201d<\/p>\n

Republican Party of Florida Chairman Evan Power\u00a0said the party is \u201cproud\u201d of its special election candidates and will continue to \u201cengage, mobilize and lead.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cRepublicans are leading on the issues that matter the most to Floridians \u2014 public safety, economic growth, meaningful property tax reform, expanded school choice, and strong environmental stewardship,\u201d Power said in a statement. \u201cOur record isn\u2019t just strong, it is unmatched. With a Republican voter registration advantage of nearly 1.5 million, we are well-positioned and fully energized as we head toward November.\u201d<\/p>\n

Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried hopes the result makes Republican lawmakers pause as they approach Gov. Ron DeSantis\u2019 call for a special session to redraw congressional district lines the week of April 20.<\/p>\n

\u201cVoters are tired of one-party rule and attempts to steal their votes,\u201d Fried said in a conference call Wednesday with reporters. \u201cThey are tired of the skyrocketing costs and the chaos in the news this year.\u201d<\/p>\n

Fried also said the state party, which still faces a need to cut into the Republican supermajorities in the Legislature in the fall election, has been on the phones with national Democratic groups that have disengaged from Florida politics the past couple of cycles.<\/p>\n

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This article appears in Mar. 19 \u2013 25, 2026<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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