SP+ creator Bill Connelly uses four primary factors for his preseason projections. The most important piece is “returning production.” These are proven players within a program that should produce similar results. Next is “recent history,” which accounts for how well (or poorly) a team has performed in recent memory. A one-year boom program is less stable than a consistent 10-game winner.<\/p>\n
The final two factors, “recent recruiting” and “coaching change effects,” are weighted less heavily. Ten years ago, recruiting made up nearly a quarter of the preseason formula. Now it’s down to a few percentage points. The transfer portal has made this part of the equation much harder to predict. Coaching changes typically bring teams back to the 20-year S+ baseline. With Florida replacing Billy Napier with Jon Sumrall, the Gators are expected to improve after underperforming the last four years.<\/p>\n
“SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency,” Connelly reminds readers. “It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a re\u0301sume\u0301 ranking. Along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather.”<\/p>\n
With all that in mind, Florida’s No. 19 placement on the preseason list is still surprising. The Gators 14.9 SP+ rating still ranks ninth in the SEC, but it’s a reminder of just how hard being in this conference makes things. Florida’s 15.9 defensive SP+ ranks 12th in the nation, and its 30.2 offensive SP+ ranks 39th. Despite a complete special teams overhaul, Florida ranks 17th with a 0.5 SP+ in that phase of the game.<\/p>\n
Need a news break? Check out the all new PLAY hub with puzzles, games and more!<\/a><\/p>\n The numbers will be updated again in August, but Connelly’s numbers tend to be fair. While a top-20 spot in these rankings doesn’t translate to a top-25 ranking in either major poll, Florida should field a competitive team in 2026, particularly on defense.<\/p>\n 2026 ESPN Initial SP+ RankingsOhio State \u2014 31.8Oregon \u2014 28.3Notre Dame \u2014 25.8Georgia \u2014 25.5Indiana \u2014 24.5Texas \u2014 23.7Texas Tech \u2014 23.4Miami \u2014 21.0Texas A&M \u2014 20.3LSU \u2014 20.2Alabama \u2014 18.2Oklahoma \u2014 17.2USC \u2014 16.8Michigan \u2014 16.1Tennessee \u2014 16.0Ole Miss \u2014 15.9Penn State \u2014 15.7BYU \u2014 15.5FLORIDA \u2014 14.9Missouri \u2014 14.8 Follow us\u00a0@GatorsWire<\/a>\u00a0on X, formerly known as Twitter, as well as Bluesky<\/a>, and like our page on\u00a0Facebook<\/a>\u00a0to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators<\/a> news, notes and opinions.<\/p>\n![\"\"\/](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/1774990806_878_86373768007-gators-1.jpg\")