{"id":214331,"date":"2026-04-01T10:12:10","date_gmt":"2026-04-01T10:12:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/214331\/"},"modified":"2026-04-01T10:12:10","modified_gmt":"2026-04-01T10:12:10","slug":"poll-shows-carlos-gimenezs-lead-narrowing-in-cd-28-amid-economic-policy-headwinds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/214331\/","title":{"rendered":"Poll shows Carlos Gim\u00e9nez\u2019s lead narrowing in CD 28 amid economic, policy headwinds"},"content":{"rendered":"

An unpopular Venezuela strategy, a tepid economy and Washington\u2019s divisive immigration policies could fuel a flip in Florida\u2019s 28th Congressional District, according to new polling of the Miami-Dade seat.<\/p>\n

South Florida consulting firms EDGE Communications<\/a> and MDW Communications<\/a>, which both<\/a> scored<\/a> Pollie Awards last week, surveyed 514 likely General Election voters in CD 28.<\/p>\n

The poll was conducted in early March, before the Iran conflict erupted and gas prices surged past $4 per gallon<\/a>. Voter support for incumbents has likely soured for many since.<\/p>\n

It found incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Carlos Gim\u00e9nez is running just 6 percentage points ahead of potential Democratic challenger Hector Mujica \u2014 46% to 40%, with 14% undecided.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s more good news for Mujica, a Venezuelan American entrepreneur and former Google executive now running for U.S. Senate. He leads Gim\u00e9nez by 5 points among third- and no-party voters (NPA), 39% to 34%, with 27% still undecided.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

That topline gap shrinks to 4 points, 45%-41%, when candidate names are removed, and the pollsters note that margin may be slimmer given that the Iran war is pouring salt on voters\u2019 economic anxieties and affordability is the top issue among respondents.<\/p>\n

Both Gim\u00e9nez and President Donald Trump hold negative net favorability among NPAs \u2014 at -9 and -10 points, respectively \u2014 underscoring weakness with key swing voters as Trump\u2019s ratings continue to sink<\/a> amid broad<\/a> disapproval<\/a> of his administration\u2019s policies.<\/p>\n

\u201cMujica clearly has room to grow, with a generic ballot showing the Congressional race within the margin of error,\u201d the memo reads. \u201cGim\u00e9nez holds a nominal lead in the initial ballot \u2026 but that margin is built on a fragile foundation: a politically toxic environment for Republicans and a district where the defining issues \u2014 affordability and corruption \u2014 favor a challenger.\u201d<\/p>\n

A Fox News poll<\/a> last week found 41% of Americans approve of the job Trump has done as President in his second term. A poll from Harvard<\/a> found 43% approval. Meanwhile, separate surveys by the Associated Press-NORC Research Center<\/a> and Quinnipiac University<\/a> placed Trump\u2019s approval at 38, while a poll by the University of Massachusetts Amherst pinned his approval at 33% \u2014 the lowest ever<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s falling numbers come as the U.S. continues military operations against Iran<\/a>, which has contributed to a surge in oil and gas prices<\/a>, and raids by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) whose execution face broad<\/a> disapproval<\/a> nationwide<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

EDGE-MDW pollsters found those policies and others are especially off-putting for NPA voters, among whom ICE raids and mass deportations have -19 net favorability and Iran military operations have -14 net favorability.<\/p>\n

CD 28 voters aren\u2019t keen on the Trump administration\u2019s decision to allow Nicol\u00e1s Maduro underling Delcy Rodr\u00edguez to hold power<\/a> as Venezuela\u2019s President after Maduro\u2019s arrest in early January.<\/p>\n

Just 1 in 4 voters approve of the move, which holds net -37 favorability among NPA voters.<\/p>\n

Opinions are also split on ICE and the Trump administration\u2019s broader mass deportation efforts, with 48% approving of the strategy and 49% opposed. The pro-ICE camp leans heavily on support from GOP voters, 90% of whom approve, but it\u2019s losing its luster among NPAs, scoring a -19.<\/p>\n

With Republicans controlling all levers of power in Washington, the pollsters argue Gim\u00e9nez\u2019s re-election effort will be weighed down by the negative vibes. Factor in Gim\u00e9nez\u2019s \u201cconcrete vulnerable vote record on health care and Medicaid\u201d and CD 28 may be ripe for an upset, they wrote.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis data confirms what we\u2019re seeing across South Florida: voters are frustrated with the cost of living and tired of the same political dysfunction,\u201d said EDGE Communications founder and President Christian Ulvert, who is signing on to advise Mujica.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe path to victory for Hector Mujica in CD 28 runs through independent voters, who are already breaking away from Republicans and looking for a credible alternative focused on affordability and accountability.\u201d<\/p>\n

While it\u2019s a smart bet that Mujica\u2019s entry to the CD 28 race is imminent, he\u2019s not in it yet. Federal Election Commission records suggest Democrat Phil Ehr, a retired U.S. Navy pilot who unsuccessfully challenged<\/a> Gim\u00e9nez in 2024, is the only active candidate running against the incumbent this cycle.<\/p>\n

The poll results were weighted by party, race, gender, geography and age. The margin of error was 4.3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.<\/p>\n

___<\/p>\n

Jesse Scheckner\u00a0contributed to this report.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"An unpopular Venezuela strategy, a tepid economy and Washington\u2019s divisive immigration policies could fuel a flip in Florida\u2019s…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":214332,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[97799,42604,409,55703,8184,28,30,29,97800,1877,97801,123,1064,97802,4390],"class_list":{"0":"post-214331","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-florida","8":"tag-cd-28","9":"tag-christian-ulvert","10":"tag-donald-trump","11":"tag-edge-communications","12":"tag-election-2026","13":"tag-florida","14":"tag-florida-headlines","15":"tag-florida-news","16":"tag-hector-mujica","17":"tag-ice","18":"tag-mdw-communications","19":"tag-miami","20":"tag-miami-dade","21":"tag-miami-dade-county-carlos-gimenez","22":"tag-venezuela"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/214331","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=214331"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/214331\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/214332"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=214331"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=214331"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=214331"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}