As of the second quarter of 2025, Florida\u2019s total tax collections were 3.9% below the state\u2019s 15-year benchmark after adjusting for inflation and seasonality, or roughly $672 million short of what a steady pace would have produced. Nationally, total state tax collections were about 2.3% off pace.<\/p>\n
The figures suggest that while Florida\u2019s fiscal outlook is settling into a new post-pandemic normal, collections are decelerating, giving budget writers less wiggle room for new tax cuts or spending programs.<\/p>\n
Sales tax collections, especially vital in a state that does not levy a personal income tax, are the main driver behind the slowdown. According to Pew, Florida sales tax revenue was 4.6% below expectations in Q2 2025, or fully double the 2.3% national average.<\/p>\n
That softness could be a knock-on effect of broader economic malaise \u2014 household spending has slowed as inflation continues pummeling consumers years after cutting off the ring; tourism, while still inching upward, is no longer posting the year-over-year gains seen in the post-reopening surge, while international visitation, especially from the U.S.\u2019s northern neighbor, is falling off a cliff<\/a>.<\/p>\n There is a bright spot in the data, however: corporate income tax collections are running 9.4% above their historical norm, significantly outperforming the national figure of 2.7%. But a bump in business tax collections is hardly a counterweight \u2014 nearly two-thirds of state revenue flows through the general sales tax, while corporate income taxes comprise less than 10%.<\/p>\n Taken together, the numbers lend credence to an early-Session warning<\/a> from House Speaker Daniel Perez: \u201cThe future of the state of Florida, although I think it\u2019s prosperous, I don\u2019t think it\u2019s as rainbow and butterfly-ish as people think.\u201d<\/p>\n The broader national picture points in the same direction. Pew found that 40 states were collecting less tax revenue than expected as of Q2 2025, suggesting that the extraordinary gains seen during the pandemic recovery have largely faded.<\/p>\n Evening Reads<\/p>\n \u2014\u201dDonald Trump fires Pam Bondi as Attorney General<\/a>\u201d via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics<\/p>\n \u2014\u201dPart enabler, part buffer: The bind of the Justice Dept.\u2019s No. 2<\/a>\u201d via\u00a0 Glenn Thrush and Alan Feuer of The New York Times<\/p>\n \u2014\u201cThe Manosphere feels betrayed<\/a>\u201d via Hanna Rosin of The Atlantic<\/p>\n \u2014\u201dWill $4 gas hurt Trump\u2019s approval ratings? Here\u2019s what history shows.<\/a>\u201d via Ruth Igielnik and Katherine Chui of The New York Times<\/p>\n \u2014\u201dThe 27 most eye-popping lines from Trump\u2019s primetime Iran speech<\/a>\u201d via Chris Cillizza of So What<\/p>\n \u2014\u201cHow Trump rewrote the rules of global trade in one year<\/a>\u201d via Gavin Bade of The Wall Street Journal<\/p>\n \u2014\u201dUsing water to combat ICE<\/a>\u201d via Noel Sims of Popular Information<\/p>\n \u201cUnmasking the paramilitary agents behind Trump\u2019s violent immigration crackdown<\/a>\u201d via Ali Winston and Maddy Varner of WIRED<\/p>\n \u2014\u201dFlorida joins push to tighten voting rules as Senate dithers<\/a>\u201d via Alexandra Samuels of Bloomberg Government<\/p>\n \u2014\u201cHector Mujica enters CD 28 race, setting up potentially competitive challenge to Carlos Gim\u00e9nez<\/a>\u201d via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics<\/p>\n \u2014\u201dWhat happened when they installed ChatGPT on a nuclear supercomputer<\/a>\u201d via Joshua Keating of Vox<\/p>\n \u2014\u201d\u2018What a historic day\u2019: UWF sports teams are heading to Division I<\/a>\u201d via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics<\/p>\n \u201cWe love Pam, and she will be transitioning to a much-needed and important new job in the private sector, to be announced at a date in the near future.\u201d<\/p>\n \u2014 President Donald Trump firing Attorney General Pam Bondi.<\/p>\n Put it on the Tab<\/p>\n Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.<\/p>\n Send an Army & Navy<\/a> \u2014 heavy on the Army \u2014 to Alan Suskey, who has been named a Board member<\/a> for Military Community Youth Ministries.<\/p>\n Sydney Gruters topped $100,000 raised<\/a> in her first 5 hours on the campaign trail in Florida\u2019s 16th Congressional District. That\u2019s enough to snag a bottle of LeNell\u2019s Red Hook Rye<\/a> \u2026 although the FEC might take issue with that expenditure.<\/p>\n It\u2019s Argo<\/a> time in Northwest Florida now that UWF athletics are making the jump<\/a> from Division II to the big leagues.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/ad-for-sunburn-rv-640x800.jpg\")
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