A developing El Ni\u00f1o \u2014 and a potential “Super El Ni\u00f1o” \u2014 will be one of the biggest forces driving the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.<\/p>\n
When sea surface temperatures are cooler than usual, we get La Ni\u00f1a. This summer is predicted to have warmer sea temperatures, forecasters say, and we are likely to have an El Ni\u00f1o pattern.<\/p>\n
The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, but much of the activity occurs from mid-August through early October. With the timing of the El Ni\u00f1o, that would make for fewer storms during that time.<\/p>\n
“Typically, El Ni\u00f1o creates stronger upper-level winds (wind shear<\/a>) across the Atlantic, making it harder for tropical storms to take shape,” AccuWeather<\/a> forecasters said. “With El Ni\u00f1o forecast to develop and strengthen throughout the summer and autumn, it is likely to translate to fewer storms during the second half of the hurricane season compared to the first half.”<\/p>\n There’s also an about 15 percent chance for a “Super El Ni\u00f1o,” forecasters said. That would make for a sharp reduction in storm activity.<\/p>\n AccuWeather is predicting 11 to 16 named storms for the upcoming hurricane season. The historical average is 14 named storms. Forecasters also expect three to five direct impacts on the United States.<\/p>\n Related Stories: <\/p>\n “On average, El Ni\u00f1o seasons produce about 10 named storms and five hurricanes, compared to 15 storms and eight hurricanes during La Ni\u00f1a years. Neutral seasons average 13 named storms and seven hurricanes,” AccuWeather said.<\/p>\n Still, forecasters warn that \u201cthe risk of U.S. impacts remains elevated\u201d this coming hurricane season, with the potential for rapid intensification over very warm waters and \u201chomegrown development near the U.S. coastline.\u201d<\/p>\n Exceptionally warm Atlantic waters extend hundreds of feet deep, which could fuel stronger storms that rapidly intensify.<\/p>\n \u201cWater temperatures across much of the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic are forecast to reach exceptionally warm levels again this summer. That heat extends hundreds of feet below the surface, providing additional fuel for storms,\u201d AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said. \u201cAs a result, we are very concerned about the risk of rapid intensification this hurricane season.\u201d<\/p>\n It’s worth noting that a hurricane season can still be dangerous even if it is below average.<\/p>\n “It’s very important that everybody from South Texas all the way to Maine prepares equally for each and every hurricane season, regardless of what the official forecast is,” DaSilva said. “Even if it’s expected to be a slightly below-average hurricane season, we can still see major hits across the United States.”<\/p>\n He added, \u201cThere is no reason to let your guard down this year. It only takes one storm to cause major damage, disruption and heartache. Review your insurance coverage, safety plans, and local evacuation routes now. Make sure your emergency supplies are stocked up.\u201d <\/p>\n The central and eastern Gulf Coast \u2014 including Florida \u2014 as well as the Carolinas and parts of the Virginia coastline, face a higher-than-average risk of significant tropical impacts this year, forecasters said. <\/p>\n